Why the polls are wrong again: As in 2016, Trump supporters are not divulging their vote intentions

The polls leading up to the 2016 presidential elections showed Hillary Clinton winning, but the polls turned out, happily, to be wrong.

Democrats, who had believed the polls, were outraged.

To this day, Demonrats are in denial, having convinced themselves that their candidate lost because Trump had colluded with those dastardly Russians — for which, after a two-year exhaustive FBI investigation that cost taxpayers millions of dollars, there is zero evidence.

None. Nada. Zilch.

Of course, that hasn’t stopped Demonrats in repeating the fake Russian collusion story because of their “I’ve made up my mind! Don’t confuse me with facts!” psychopathology.

Well, the signs are pointing to the polls being wrong again in the 2020 election.

Although polls after the Democrat and Republican party conventions show that Joe Biden still has a four-point lead over Trump, this is why those polls are wrong: Many Trump supporters simply are not telling people for whom they’ll vote on November 3.

On September 3 and 6, 2020, Rasmussen Reports conducted a national phone and online survey of 1,000 likely voters, with a +/- 3 margin of sampling error and a 95% level of confidence.

The survey found that:

  • As many as 17% of those who Strongly Approve of the job President Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. In contrast, only 8% who those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s performance say they won’t tell others how they’ll vote.
  • Not surprisingly, Republicans are less likely than Democrats to tell others how they intend to vote: 16% of Republicans vs. 12% of Democrats.
  • Independents, i.e., those not affiliated with either major political party, are even more inclined to keep secret for whom they’ll vote — 21%.
  • Liberals are more likely to talk up their vote than moderates and conservatives are.
  • Blacks and other minority voters are less likely than whites this election cycle to tell others how they plan to vote.
  • Republicans are more enthusiastic about the election (which means they are more likely to turn out to vote).

In the 2016 election, Trump supporters also were less likely to divulge how they intended to vote. At this same time in the 2016 election cycle, Rasmussen found that:

  • 17% of Likely Republican Voters were less likely to let others know how they intend to vote compared to previous presidential campaigns. In contrast, just 10% of Likely Democratic Voters said they were less likely to tell.
  • 25% of Independents said they were less likely to say publicly which presidential candidate they will vote.

~Eowyn

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Anonymous
Anonymous
10 days ago

Trump gaining support? Don’t worry (reports Bloomberg) Democrats control most top state election positions and they’ll keep countin’ (especially mail in ballots, however many they “find”) until Biden wins.

“Democrats Hold Secret Edge If Election Is Too Close to Call,” by Mark Niquette and Kartikay Mehrotra, Bloomberg, 5 Sep 2020, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-05/democrats-hold-secret-edge-if-election-is-too-close-to-call

Auntie Lulu
Auntie Lulu
10 days ago
Reply to  Anonymous

This is the very thing that scares me to death. I believe that this fact is all to true. I can only pray that Our Eternal Father continues to monitor what is going on in our Republic, and that the forces of evil will be thwarted.

truckjunkie
truckjunkie
9 days ago
Reply to  Anonymous

That’s the top problem with the blanket vote idea-the Demorats can “FIND” as many Democrat Ballots as it takes to win-legitimate results be damned.

Anonymous
Anonymous
9 days ago
Reply to  truckjunkie

Take it from their hero:
comment image

YouKnowWho
YouKnowWho
10 days ago

If I may repeat yourself. How many people that voted for Trump in 2016 are not going to vote for him in 2020? How many more people will vote for Trump this time around? How many more are going to vote for Trump this time around that aren’t saying so? African American support of Trump has jumped from 8% in 2016 to 24% in 2020 (some poles say as much as 34%). At least by the ones that admit it. Similar if not better numbers from Hispanics. The dims are wrong about suburban women. They want more money in their pockets.… Read more »

Auntie Lulu
Auntie Lulu
10 days ago
Reply to  YouKnowWho

YouKnowWho . . . Bravo for posting such an excellent synopsis of what is going on. You are absolutely correct when you wrote . . . “Keep the faith. Pray hard. And long. And frequently.” You are absolutely spot on in that admonition. May the Heavens be aware of the prayers of the faithful.

Auntie Lulu
Auntie Lulu
10 days ago

Thank you Dr Eowyn for this fabulous, heart warming article. When I see all the footage of boat parades on various rivers and waterways, parades of cars and trucks flying both the American flag and a Trump 2020 flag, plus films of Trump gatherings–I must admit, at the age of 74, I have never seen anything like this. I cannot imagine what with all these visible sign of support for Trump, that he could possibly loose. I refuse to tell anyone who I am going to vote for. Why, because I do not want the other side to be able… Read more »

Jen
Jen
10 days ago

People need to be prepared even if the President wins. More of the same that has been going on for months. Not just major cities. 🔥 It ain’t going to be pretty. And if Biden (Kamala) wins, things are going to radically change. Be prepared and VOTE.

True Dan
True Dan
10 days ago

With people who wear anything MAGA being attacked by irrationals, why would anyone who intends to vote for Trump say so? To be safer, just say that you intend to vote for Biden and then vote for Trump. Or say that you are undecided for some reason, perhaps for Biden’s reluctance to debate Trump, and then vote for Trump. Especially if talking to a pollster. Washington State is where, when a Democrat loses an election by a few votes, suddenly a box full of ballots is miraculously found in the trunk of someone’s car or in some warehouse. And, of… Read more »

Bad Bart
Bad Bart
9 days ago

Always lie to census workers and pollsters.

truckjunkie
truckjunkie
9 days ago

The Dems SAID they wanted mail in voting because of the Beer Bug,but,as has been established in many States,that’s a lie. If Americans can go to Walmart in the midst of this circus,they can damned sure go VOTE. In Nevada,we pitched such a fit that MOST all Counties (possibly ALL by now) have decided to ALSO provide voting in person. We have President Trump coming to Reno and Lost Wages for campaign Ralleys,even though Governor Sissypants has said he won’t allow that because of the “limited occupancy restrictions” of the Beer Bug. He’s NOT going to succeed,though,I believe we’ll becom… Read more »

Jay Dee
Jay Dee
7 days ago

Not divulging out true intentions! Hell, it’s great fun lying your ass off to pollsters and it absolutely wrecks any political modeling.