Tag Archives: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Private sector job growth ‘rip-roaring’ in May


From Fox News: Job gains in the private sector far outpaced expectations in May, payroll processor ADP said Thursday, adding to sentiment that the U.S. economy is seeing a rebound in the second quarter from a sluggish first three months of the year.

The private sector added 253,000 jobs last month, far outpacing Wall Street expectations for a gain of 185,000 jobs. Business services, which includes technical services, management and administrative and support services positions, saw its strongest monthly increase since 2014, adding 88,000 jobs for the month, boosting the overall service-providing sector to 205,000 net new jobs.

“Job growth is rip-roaring,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said in a statement. “The current pace of job growth is nearly three times the rate necessary to absorb growth in the labor force. Increasingly, businesses’ number one challenge will be a shortage of labor.”

Elsewhere, the goods-producing sector added 48,000 jobs as 37,000 new construction jobs came online, while information services and leisure and hospitality saw employment declines.

The figures from ADP are closely eyed by Wall Street as a barometer for broader U.S. job creation, figures that will be updated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. Economists are expecting a non-farm payrolls gain of 185,000 in May alongside a steady unemployment rate of 4.4% and a 0.2% increase in average hourly earnings.

The Federal Reserve has kept a keen eye on labor market strength, one prong of its Congressional dual mandate, as it continues on its path to normalizing monetary policy. On Wednesday, the central bank’s anecdotal Beige Book report showed many of its 12 districts across the U.S. reported worker shortages across a range of industries and regions as employment grew during the April to May survey period – supporting evidence of a labor market that is at or near full employment.

The strength in America’s labor market will likely give the Fed more confidence to raise interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. The CME Group’s federal funds futures, a tool used to predict market expectations for changes in monetary policy, showed odds of a rate rise at the June 13-14 meeting stand at 95.8%.



No one works in 1 of 5 U.S. families

evolution of man

On April 22, 2016, the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, released its statistics on employment characteristics of U.S. families in 2015.

Of the 81.41 million total number of families in America, 16.06 million families — nearly 20% (19.7%) or 1 out of every 5 families — had not even one employed member.

By “employed” is meant “any work at all as paid employees” or “in their own business, profession, or on their own farm.” This means even part-time work is considered being employed.

By “family” is meant “a group of two or more persons residing together who are related by birth, marriage, or adoption.”

Categorized in accordance with race and ethnicity, here are the most to least unemployed in 2015:

  • Blacks were the most unemployed: No one worked in 22.3% of black families.
  • Whites were better than blacks, but did worse than the national average, with 19.9% of white families not having even one employed member.
  • Hispanics or Latinos were better: No one worked in 13.6% of Hispanic or Latino families.
  • Asians were the most employed: No one worked in 11.4% of Asian families.

Let this sink in: No one works for pay in 20% of U.S. families.

How can this be sustainable?

H/t Michael Snyder of The Economic Collapse


How the $15 wage is already killing jobs in Seattle

Unintended consequences.

Via NY Post: Spiking the minimum wage statewide may appeal to a Democrat eyeing a future run for national office. But it’s a bad idea for New York.

Don’t believe us? Look how it’s working out in real life at a town already en route to a $15 minimum — Seattle. An American Enterprise Institute report sums up the results. Spoiler alert: It’s not pretty.

Seattle passed its $15 law in June 2014. Starting last April, it raised the minimum from $9.32 (the state minimum wage) to $10 for certain business, $11 for others.

Increases to $12, $12.50 and $13 an hour began taking effect for most employers this Jan. 1. The jumps will continue until the minimum hits the full $15 an hour in 2017 for some before it’s universal in 2019. Yet even the early impact is harsh.

The AEI study, worked up from Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly surveys, shows that, between April and December last year, Seattle saw the biggest employment drop in any nine-month period since 2009 — a full year into the Great Recession.

The city unemployment rate rose a full percentage point.

Before the minimum-wage hikes begin, Seattle employment tracked the rest of the nation — slowly rising from the 2008-09 bottom. But it started to plunge last spring, as the new law began to kick in.


Furthermore, Seattle’s loss of 10,000 jobs in just the three months of September, October and November was a record for any three-month period dating back to 1990.

Meanwhile, employment outside the city limits — which had long tracked the rate in Seattle proper — was soaring by 57,000 and set a new record high that November.

Seattle is learning that it can’t unilaterally ignore basic economics. Businesses adapt to government dictates. To survive mandated pay hikes, they lay off employees, or avoid new new hires to control costs.

Read the whole story here.

h/t Hot Air.


Gallup CEO says he may be “disappeared” for saying 5.6% unemployment is a “Big Lie”

Gallup CEO Jim Clifton

Jim Clifton is the Chairman and CEO of Gallup, Inc. Yes, that Gallup as in the Gallup Poll — the U.S. consulting company famous for its public opinion polls, founded by George Gallup in 1935.

On Feb. 3, 2015, Clifton did something quite remarkable: He wrote an op/ed in which he called the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) official unemployment rate of 5.6% “the big lie.” (See my post “Gallup CEO: 5.6% unemployment is a Big Lie“)

Clifton wrote:

Right now, we’re hearing much celebrating from the media, the White House and Wall Street about how unemployment is “down” to 5.6%. The cheerleading for this number is deafening….

None of them will tell you this: If you, a family member or anyone is unemployed and has subsequently given up on finding a job — the Department of Labor doesn’t count you as unemployed….

There’s another reason why the official rate is misleading…. If you perform a minimum of one hour of work in a week and are paid at least $20 — maybe someone pays you to mow their lawn — you’re not officially counted as unemployed in the much-reported 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

Yet another figure of importance that doesn’t get much press: those working part time but wanting full-time work…the government doesn’t count you in the 5.6%. Few Americans know this.

There’s no other way to say this. The official unemployment rate…amounts to a Big Lie.

At the time when I posted Clifton’s op/ed, FOTM writer Trail Dust and I exchanged comments marveling at Clifton’s truth-telling. TD wrote: “I wonder what triggered him to dare such a dangerous enemy out in the open like that.”

Well, that thought had occurred to Clifton as well.

The day after his op/ed was published, on Feb. 4, 2015, Clifton told CNBC that he was worried he might “suddenly disappear” and not make it home that evening if he disputed the accuracy of what the U.S. government is reporting as unemployed Americans.

Pam and Russ Martens report for Wall Street Parade:

The CNBC interview came one day after Clifton had penned a gutsy opinion piece on Gallup’s web site, defiantly calling the government’s 5.6 percent unemployment figure “The Big Lie” in the article’s headline. His appearance on CNBC was apparently to walk back the “lie” part of the title and reframe the jobs data as just hopelessly deceptive.

Clifton stated the following on CNBC:

“I think that the number that comes out of BLS [Bureau of Labor Statistics] and the Department of Labor is very, very accurate. I need to make that very, very clear so that I don’t suddenly disappear. I need to make it home tonight.

Clifton then went on to eviscerate the legitimacy of the cheerful spin given to the unemployment data, telling CNBC viewers that the percent of full time jobs in this country as a percent of the adult population “is the worst it’s been in 30 years.”

Jim Clifton is not the first to raise questions about the Department of Labor’s unemployment numbers. For years, Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, former Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration, has written about the lack of attention to the measurement known as U6 – which covers the unemployed, underemployed and those who are not looking but want a job. In contrast to the government’s official 5.6% unemployment figure, U6 was an alarming 11.2% in December 2014 — exactly double the official unemployment rate known at U3.

The fact that hourly earnings are not improving with the improvement in the official unemployment rate and that the labor force participation rate of working age men (ages 25 to 54) now stands at the lowest level since the BLS started keeping records more than 60 years ago adds further fodder to “The Big Lie” theory.

H/t Gateway Pundit and FOTM reader “Barry Soetoro, Esq.”

Good grief. What has become of America?

If I had told you in 2008 that the day will soon come when the CEO of Gallup says he may be “disappeared” for speaking the truth about the government, would you have believed me?

See also:

Good grief. What has become of America?


8+ million dropped out of U.S. labor force under Obama

Look around you.

4 of every 10 working-age adults you see on the streets don’t work.

That’s because more than 8 million Americans have dropped out of the U.S. labor force in just four years, during the POS’s first term as POTUS.

The result is that only 6.3 of every 10 adult working-age Americans now work, which means those who work have even a heavier tax burden.


Terence P. Jeffrey reports for CNSNews, Jan. 20, 2013, that the number of Americans age 16 or older who decided not to work or even to look for a job increased by 8,332,000 to a record 88,839,000 in Barack Obama’s first term, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

To be in the labor force a person must either have a job or actively sought one in the previous four weeks.

When Obama was inaugurated in January 2009, there were 80,507,000 American civilians age 16 or older who did not have a job or seek one. In December 2012, there were 88,839,000—thus, the increase of 8,332,000.

The increase in drop-outs resulted in a decrease in the labor force participation rate from 65.7% in January 2009, the month Obama was first inaugurated, to 63.6% in December 2012, the latest month reported. Before Obama took office, the lowest the labor force participation rate (63.6%) was in 1981, the year President Ronald Reagan took over from Jimmy Carter — the worst president America’s ever had until Barack Obama.

In the comparable period of George W. Bush’s second term, the number of Americans choosing not to participate in the labor force went from 76,808,000 in January 2005 to 80,380,000 in December 2012—an increase of 3,572,000 in absolute numbers, but not as a percentage of the labor force. The rate of participation in the labor force was the same in January 2005 as it was in December 2008—65.8%.

More Hope and Change Despair and Ruin!

H/t California Political News & Views


Surprise! U.S. unemployment back to 9%!

Last month, the establishment media had an orgasm over the official U.S. jobless rate having declined to 8.3%.

In my post of Feb. 11, I called it baloney and pointed out how deceptive that 8.3% number is, due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) “seasonal adjustment” and the exclusion of the long-term unemployed from the official jobless number. (See also my post, “Attn sheeple: U.S. economy is NOT improving,” Feb. 16, 2012.)

The skepticism is on point. Wolf Richter writes on Feb. 18, 2012:

“Now we’re in February, and unemployment after a year of fairly consistent improvement, is suddenly showing a sharp deterioration.

On Friday, Gallup’s mid-month unemployment reading, which covers the preceding 30 days, jumped from 8.3% in mid-January, the low point since the financial crisis, to 9.0%. An astounding increase. And its Job Creation Index confirmed that trend, dropping from +16 in January to +13 in February.

Worse, 10% of the employees in mid-February were part timers in search of full-time jobs…. Underemployment—a combination of the unemployed and part-timers who are looking for a full-time job—jumped to 19% from the mid-January reading of 18.1%. While Gallup’s unemployment reading has improved steadily over the course of 2011, the underemployment reading has simply gotten worse.”

There is another indicator besides Gallup’s mid-month jobless figure. It’s the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s (FRBP) employment index.

The FRBP index reflects hiring plans by employers. Alarmingly, the index collapsed from 11.6 last month (January) to 1.1 in February. This means businesses aren’t hiring.

Over the years, the FRBP employment index has shown a strong correlation with the BLS jobs report. An index of 1.1 in February means only 50,000 new jobs were created, a far cry from the 243,000 the BLS claimed had been created in January (that figure, too, is deceptive).

Gosh, I wonder why we don’t hear or read about this news?


Steep rise in food and gas prices under Obama

We are told that the U.S. rate of inflation for the month of December 2011 was a low 2.96%, and that the average for the year of 2011 was 3.16%.

But if your wallet seems a little lighter after a trip to the grocery store or gas station, you’re not imagining things. It’s just that — Surprise! — our government does not include food and energy prices when calculating the rate of inflation.

The inflation rate is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is based upon a 1982 Base of 100. A Consumer Price Index of 158 indicates 58% inflation since 1982, the commonly quoted inflation rate of 3% is actually the change in the Consumer Price Index from a year earlier.

To measure the cost of living for consumers and come up with the Consumer Price Index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics prices everything consumers spend money on — haircuts, plane tickets, medical care, clothes, etc.. Then all of the expenditures are categorized and weighted based on the amount that the average consumer spends on those categories. The percentage change from month to month is the rate of inflation, and it’s usually expressed as an annualized number.

But the BLS discards two categories — food and energy — when calculating the core inflation rate because, it is argued, the prices of food and energy are easily affected by the capricious nature of weather and political winds.

That, of course, makes the official inflation rate quite deceptive because the plain truth is that a big chunk of our pay checks actually goes toward food and gas. And, it turns out those prices have skyrocketed under Obama.

Christopher Goins reports for CNS News, January 20, 2012, that during the presidency of Barack Obama, the prices of the following have increased by double digits, according to BLS data:

  • The price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the city has jumped 83%, from $1.79 in January 2009 to $3.28 by December 2011.
  • The price of one pound of 100% ground beef has gone up 24%, from $2.36 in January 2009 to $2.92 by December 2011.
  • The price of one pound of sliced bacon has gone up 22%, from $3.73 in January 2009 was $3.73 to $4.55 in December 2011.
  • Ice cream prices, for a half-gallon, rose 19.1%, from $4.44 in January 2009 to $5.25 in December 2011.
  • Whole wheat bread prices increased 5.02% from $1.97 in January 2009 to $2.07 in December 2011.
  • The average retail price of a dozen Grade A eggs increased 1.30%, from $1.85 in January 2009 to $1.87 in December 2011.
  • Only the price of whole milk prices slightly declined by 0.28%, from $3.58 in January 2009 to $3.57 in December 2011.

Two groups of Americans are especially affected — the poor and the elderly.

Poor and low-income Americans are most affected by increases in food and gas prices. At the same time, older retired Americans who depend on income generated by interest on their savings have seen their income dwindle to near nothing because of the low interest rates offered by banks and the U.S. Treasury. Those rates, calibrated to what the government claims is the official inflation rate, are at a historic low, barely above 1-2%.

How are we liking the Hope and Change?