Tag Archives: 2016 presidential polls

Why the polls are wrong again: As in 2016, Trump supporters are not divulging their vote intentions

The polls leading up to the 2016 presidential elections showed Hillary Clinton winning, but the polls turned out, happily, to be wrong.

Democrats, who had believed the polls, were outraged.

To this day, Demonrats are in denial, having convinced themselves that their candidate lost because Trump had colluded with those dastardly Russians — for which, after a two-year exhaustive FBI investigation that cost taxpayers millions of dollars, there is zero evidence.

None. Nada. Zilch.

Of course, that hasn’t stopped Demonrats in repeating the fake Russian collusion story because of their “I’ve made up my mind! Don’t confuse me with facts!” psychopathology.

Well, the signs are pointing to the polls being wrong again in the 2020 election.

Although polls after the Democrat and Republican party conventions show that Joe Biden still has a four-point lead over Trump, this is why those polls are wrong: Many Trump supporters simply are not telling people for whom they’ll vote on November 3.

On September 3 and 6, 2020, Rasmussen Reports conducted a national phone and online survey of 1,000 likely voters, with a +/- 3 margin of sampling error and a 95% level of confidence.

The survey found that:

  • As many as 17% of those who Strongly Approve of the job President Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. In contrast, only 8% who those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s performance say they won’t tell others how they’ll vote.
  • Not surprisingly, Republicans are less likely than Democrats to tell others how they intend to vote: 16% of Republicans vs. 12% of Democrats.
  • Independents, i.e., those not affiliated with either major political party, are even more inclined to keep secret for whom they’ll vote — 21%.
  • Liberals are more likely to talk up their vote than moderates and conservatives are.
  • Blacks and other minority voters are less likely than whites this election cycle to tell others how they plan to vote.
  • Republicans are more enthusiastic about the election (which means they are more likely to turn out to vote).

In the 2016 election, Trump supporters also were less likely to divulge how they intended to vote. At this same time in the 2016 election cycle, Rasmussen found that:

  • 17% of Likely Republican Voters were less likely to let others know how they intend to vote compared to previous presidential campaigns. In contrast, just 10% of Likely Democratic Voters said they were less likely to tell.
  • 25% of Independents said they were less likely to say publicly which presidential candidate they will vote.

~Eowyn

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