First Assessments of Implications of Bin Laden Death

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Red Alert: Osama bin Laden Killed
STRATFOR – May 2, 2011
The United States has killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and recovered his body, according to numerous media reports May 1 citing U.S. officials. U.S. President Barack Obama is scheduled to make an announcement on the subject. It is not clear precisely how bin Laden was killed or how his body was recovered, but the assertion that he is dead is significant.
Bin Laden had become the symbol of al Qaeda, even though the degree to which he commanded the organization was questionable. The symbolic value of his death is obvious. The United States can claim a great victory. Al Qaeda can proclaim his martyrdom.
It is difficult to understand what this means at this moment, but it permits the Obama administration to claim victory, at least partially, over al Qaeda. It also opens the door for the beginning of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, regardless of the practical impact of bin Laden’s death. The mission in Afghanistan was to defeat al Qaeda, and with his death, a plausible claim can be made that the mission is complete. Again speculatively, it will be interesting to see how this affects U.S. strategy there.
Equally possible is that this will trigger action by al Qaeda in bin Laden’s name. We do not know how viable al Qaeda is or how deeply compromised it was. It is clear that bin Laden’s cover had been sufficiently penetrated to kill him. If bin Laden’s cover was penetrated, then the question becomes how much of the rest of the organization’s cover was penetrated. It is unlikely, however, that al Qaeda is so compromised that it cannot take further action.
At this early hour, the only thing possible is speculation on the consequences of bin Laden’s death, and that speculation is inherently flawed. Still, the importance of his death has its consequences. Certainly one consequence will be a sense of triumph in the United States. To others, this will be another false claim by the United States. For others it will be a call to war. We know little beyond what we have been told, but we know it matters.
~Posted by Eowyn

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0 responses to “First Assessments of Implications of Bin Laden Death

  1. I , personally think this is all a lie and osama has been dead for 8 years. This was fabricated to deflect chatter about obamas, second bogus birth certificate which was posted recently. As of now obama has 3 birth certificates. How convenient…..I smell a rat and dont believe it…

  2. I believe this will put our military on high alert. The WOT is no way near over with the death of bin Laden. It’s still exists and his death will only anger the terrorists even more.

  3. You just know many lefties will say it’s time to end the GWOT.
    You just know it’s coming.

    • Dave, apparently it’s already happening at huffpo….

      • Yeah, idiocy doesn’t take long to surface after something like this.
        What these idiots don’t understand is that Islam has been at war with the civilized world for 1400 years.

  4. adam in greece

    show us the body now. here comes the next wave of terrorist attacks. remember the ottoman empire and barbarossa in history? if bin laden’s followers get behind another leader, they could attack europe, they have been filtering through for years. keep your eye on this; all these countries are internally combusting. all they need to do is join under the banner of allah. europe will have problems against a fanatical force. remember the japanese in ww11

  5. I’m with Marlio on this one. When I heard the news last night from a friend I just laughed. I couldn’t care less. Plus I think he has been dead for a long time anyway. We probably just killed some poor old sob who met OB characteristics, messed up his face, borrowed the body and said, “Lookie, lookie…it’s OB. I wouldn’t believe Obama if he said the sun would rise tomorrow. Hey Obama’s initials are BO and Osama’s are OB. Together they make one big BOOB! Now I would have been ecstatic if someone had said that Obama had been killed. Now that would be good news!


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