New MIT/Yale study finds number of illegal migrants in U.S. is twice that of current estimates – 21.1 million!

Source of GIF: Arizona rancher’s video of armed illegal border-crossers

To put it simply, nobody really knows how many illegal aliens there are in the United States because — doh! — being illegally here, they don’t report their presence.

What we have are estimates, based on imperfect, unreliable methods:

  • Surveys that ask respondents whether they were born outside of the United States and whether they are American citizens, such as the American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey.
  • Government data on legal immigrants.

Using those imperfect methods, the current, mysteriously widely-accepted estimate of the number of illegal aliens in the U.S. is 11 million.

Using a different method, however, a new study by a team of three researchers from MIT and Yale University, published on Sept. 21, 2018, in the peer-reviewed online journal Plos One, found that the number of “undocumented immigrants” in America is actually 22.1 million, twice the estimated 11 million.

That 22.1 million figure is a conservative estimate, which means the real number may actually be higher.

The three researchers are (Yale Insights):

  1. Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, senior lecturer at the MIT Sloan School of Management .
  2. Jonathan S. Feinstein, John G. Searle Professor of Economics and Management at Yale School of Management.
  3. Edward H. Kaplan, William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research at Yale School of Management.

The team of three used the best-available demographic data from 1990 to 2016 to construct a simulation model, and came to very different conclusions than current assumptions.

From the article‘s Introduction:

We employ this approach to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. for each year from 1990 to 2016, using the best available data and parameter values from the academic literature and government sources. Some of the information we use has been collected and made available only recently….

The mean estimate [of the number of undocumented immigrants in 2016] based on our simulation analysis is 22.1 million, essentially double the current widely accepted estimate.

H/t Legal Insurrection


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20 responses to “New MIT/Yale study finds number of illegal migrants in U.S. is twice that of current estimates – 21.1 million!

  1. Actually, I would bet it’s more like 70 million since this insanity started. The phony media has been saying 12 million for 20 years. Replacing our murdered American unborn babies with illegals from 3rd world countries who will vote for the communist democrats is the goal. They’re almost through…and it has really irked them that Trump got in the way.

  2. Well, the video loop shows the same 13, same 13, same 13…

  3. I suspect the correct number is much higher than the alleged of 21.1 million. The real number is closer to 40 million Illegal Aliens.

  4. I remember specifically, in 1985, when I moved to Las Vegas, I was shocked to learn that most of the SEIU members working in the hotel/casinos were illegals, the real reason Nevada turned blue. Even then, the 11 million figure was being quoted. Low estimates are that over one million illegals enter the U.S. annually, but the majority aren’t spotted or caught. So, based on simple math, there are a minimum of 44 million, and I’m sure Kel’s estimate of 70 million is accurate. They think we’re all too dumb to understand their dirty globalist politics.

  5. Seems to be a coordinated attack against almost every White Christian nation. Now who or what organization would have enough money,power,influence, and network to pull that off?
    (interesting in that JRR Tolkien’s ROTK Appendix, the survivors of Numenor figure out that there is a coordinated effort by a force of evil to destroy Arnor & Gondor and wipe out the Numenoreans from ME)

  6. I think the fact we don’t have a much more accurate figure about the number of illegals in America should be very disturbing while incentivizing the need for a wall.

    • silhouette . . . .Amen to that! I was very glad to see that parts of the wall, to replace old broken, dilapidated wall adjacent to Texas are being built. It floors me when we see the various Demorats who oppose The Wall. that kind of thinking seems rather traitorous to me. I wonder in dollars and cents–how much do these invaders cost the American taxpayer? No doubt the monies spent on them would go a great way to funding the cost of The Wall.

  7. HELL there is that many in TEXAS alone, ADD illi-noise and it doubles. Throw NC state and you have 80 million.(seriously that is from what I have seen, IMO for the total for the US)

  8. DUH!!! Anyone especially in ALL the Southern / SW states can tell you this. As a brown American myself from Texas. I feel like I’m in the minority. A true American who happens to be a Mestiza (European and Amerindian heritage or descent, very typical North American) I walk around shocked at how freaking brown we have allowed the country to become. These people who are illegal alien invaders and I have nothing in common other than our skin color per se. I get stereotyped everywhere I go. I get asked what part of Mexico I am from. It’s truly frustrating and 21 million illegal aliens is still on the conservative side. We have allowed an invasion of low IQ peasants. No good!!

  9. Wow. No wonder they established a grant for Social Justice mathematicians. Somebody’s stats skills are lacking.

    I think “Kel’s” number is probably closer to the truth. I found myself running errands the other day. It seemed like wherever I looked I couldn’t find a white person. WHERE did they all come from?

    Remember when people used to say “those third-world countries breed like flies”? Well, I guess they do, and then they migrate here.

    When one thinks about the fact that “THEIR” politicians and officials sold them down the river its a wonder they’re still there running their collective mouths. Just look at Merkel. How does she stay alive? It’s a great mystery.

  10. My son has a buddy in Northridge (CA, just NE of Los Angeles). He tells me that it’s NOT the Mexicans moving in, but Muslims.

    In any case, where there are large groups of people, I’m lucky to see more than a handful of white faces in the crowd.


    • Yep. We’re getting our share of Mexicans, Central Americans, Muslims and Africans. There are also oodles of Koreans everywhere all-of-a-sudden but I haven’t figured that one out yet.

  11. The 11 million + figure that remained constant during Bathhouse Barry’s “presidency”…I would always ask liberals how they knew that number to be true and unchanging – they never could give a legit answer.

    “To put it simply, nobody really knows how many illegal aliens there are in the United States because — doh! — being illegally here, they don’t report their presence.”

    Part of my response to liberals was if you could count the 11 million +, then they’d be DOCUMENTED illegal aliens.

    I think the number’s between 30 – 50 million.

  12. I’m betting the REAL number is three to four times larger.

  13. Kate Frederickson

    This is very good. We need more minority’s. We need more immigrants. The more the better. The less the white race in America the better. America needs to be black and brown so it will stop it’s terroristic imperialism of the rest of the world. America needs to be invaded the same way she has invaded nations around the world for years. America needs to be rebuilt and retooled to fit into the world order. The less white people the better we can make the world. America needs to lead in the new world, not recoil and become the tail end. It needs to be the dragons head not the ass. It needs to force China and Russia to its knees and make them bow before the strength of the immigrant. We need more people from Africa and the middle East. We need more Muslims. If any one can get the word out to them, let them know they are wanted and needed here. Come to us from south America and central America. Come from all over the world and fill this place with your children. Displaced the white European American with them.

    • *fewer*

    • “We need more Muslims.”

      Yeah, because Sharia Law and the Islamic culture is just such a wonderful thing for women, Kate.

    • If you can’t spell why we need more “minority’s” properly, don’t expect us to wait for you to explicitly explain and justify why displacing white people will “better we can make the world.”

      Nor will I be waiting for a comprehensive definition of imperialism.

      Proper English and punctuation, when used incorrectly, only makes an ass out of you…it’s not very good.

    • In other words, “Kate Frederickson“, what you want is for the United States to be remade into the same shit-hole the “immigrants” you love came from.


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