Jeffrey Klein writes for Political Buzz Examiner, July 25, 2012, that there are two ways that polls can be manipulated so as to produce “results” that are more favorable to the Democrats and to the POS in the White House.
1. The first method is to only poll “Adults,” versus the more historically accurate “Registered Voter” and the even more accurate “Likely Voters.” Only Rasmussen Reports polls “likely voters,” which is why Rasmussen is by far the most accurate polling organization.
2. The second method to skew polling results is to “over-poll” one party (A) over the other (B), by having way more people from political party A in the polling sample so that the result favors the candidate from party A.
During an appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” news show on July 25, 2012, NBC Political Director and Chief Political Correspondent Chuck Todd admitted to over-polling Democrats by as much as 11 points, according to Mike Flynn’s Breitbart.com article and video footage.
Joe Scarborough was asking Todd about the latest NBC poll results showing Obama’s campaign performance bettering Mitt Romney’s. Todd shuffled nervously in his chair, then reluctantly admitted (at the 3:50 mark in the video):
“Our sampling was a little Democrat-heavy…compared to [our poll] last month.”
In fact, the NBC poll over-sampled Democrats by 11 points or more, i.e. 46% of the sample identified themselves as Democrat vs. 35% who identified themselves as Republican.
In 2008, a very big year for Democrats, the electorate was D+7 — 39% Democrat, 32% Republican. In other words, the NBC poll over-sampled Democrats so as to skew the polling results.
When Scarborough asked Todd how the Democrat over-sampling would affect these results, he replied that instead of Obama now having a 6 point lead over Romney, if the same [weighting] from last month was used, Obama and Romney would be in a dead heat. But Todd then lamely offered that in the end, “Obama was tactically winning the race” — whatever that means.
In contrast to the biased NBC poll, a July 19-22 USA Today/Gallup poll released by Jeffrey M. Jones paints a very different picture.
Republicans now have a 51% to 39% advantage in voter enthusiasm. That advantage is 25% larger than the 53% to 45% GOP advantage Gallup measured in February of this year.
Republicans’ much greater enthusiasm about voting in the November 2012 election is a troubling sign for the Obama campaign, especially given the fact that registered voters are essentially tied in their presidential voting preferences, and historically Republicans vote at higher rates than Democrats.
To which I say to our side:
“Pay no attention to polls because they lie, except for Rasmussen. Be focused. Be resolute. If you aren’t registered to vote, do so NOW! And make sure you and every non-Democrat you know go to vote on November 6th!”