UK's national wealth service: Global cooling for last 10 years

Sat, 27 Nov 2010 13:38:15 +0000


Design by BKeyser

The Met Office or Meteorological Office is the UK’s national weather service.

Yesterday, November 26, 2010, the UK’s Daily Mail had an interesting article, Global warming has slowed down over the past 10 years, say scientists.” Not only has the globe been cooling instead of warming, scientists attribute the cooling to anthropogenic (man-made) pollution! Too funny. But did you hear or read about it here in the good ol’ U S of A? No. The article begins by saying:

The rate at which global temperatures are rising has slowed in the past decade, scientists said today. In a report published today, the Met Office said the slow in the rate of warming was down to a combination of natural variation in the weather and pollution. Scientists say one of the major factors is the rise in heavy industry and pollutant ‘aerosols’, particularly in Asia. An upsurge in industrial emissions such as sulphur which are being pumped into the atmosphere reflects sunlight and could lead to a cooling effect. Changes in the amount of water vapour in the stratosphere may also be a factor, the report suggests….

At the same time as the Daily Mail article says the globe has been cooling, the writer paradoxically insists that there still is Global Warming and warns that the cooling data “will be seized upon by climate sceptics as evidence that man-made global warming has been overstated.” The article continues:

Since the 1970s, the long-term rate of global warming has been around 0.16C a decade but that slowed in the last 10 years to between 0.05C – 0.13C depending on which of the three major temperature record series are used. Vicky Pope, head of climate science advice, said: ‘The warming trend has decreased slightly. There’s still a warming trend but it’s not as rapid as it was before. The question is why has that happened. It’s a question that sceptics often bring up.’ However researchers from the Met Office say there is still a warming trend over the 10 years since 2000 and the decade was the hottest on record. They also said a lack of data from the Arctic, where warming has been particularly strong in the last 10 years, and changes to the way sea surface temperatures are measured have led to an underestimate of the rate at which temperatures are rising. And while the UK is currently experiencing a cold snap and last year had the harshest winter for 30 years, the scientists said the evidence for man-made global warming had grown even stronger in the past year. Dr Pope said for global warming it was important to look at the global picture – which last year saw many parts of the world experience very warm temperatures even while the UK was gripped by snow and ice. And she said: ‘We are starting to see changes in the climate even in the UK which we can link to global warming. We’re seeing more heatwaves and seeing fewer of these cold winters.’

So, let me see if I got it right:

  • Scientists admit that climate data show that the globe actually has been cooling in the last decade, but the same scientists also insist that the last 10 years have been the warmest ever.
  • The UK has had “the harshest” (i.e., coldest) winter last year, but scientists say this is even stronger evidence of global warming and that “we’re seeing more heatwaves and seeing fewer of these colder winters.”

Which reminds me of this interview the BBC’s Roger Harrabin had Phil Jones on February 13, 2010. Jones is still the director of the University of East Anglia’s now infamous Climatic Research Unit (CRU) whose hacked e-mails showed a pattern of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) scientists faking their data and blackballing/censoring other climate scientists who are AGW skeptics.

Q: Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical? A: …Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different…. I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998. So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. Q: Do you agree that from 1995 to the present there has been no statistically-significant global warming A: Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level…. Q: Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling? A: No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant. Q: Do you agree that natural influences could have contributed significantly to the global warming observed from 1975-1998, and, if so, please could you specify each natural influence and express its radiative forcing over the period in Watts per square metre. A: This area is slightly outside my area of expertise. When considering changes over this period we need to consider all possible factors (so human and natural influences as well as natural internal variability of the climate system). Natural influences (from volcanoes and the Sun) over this period could have contributed to the change over this period. Volcanic influences from the two large eruptions (El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991) would exert a negative influence. Solar influence was about flat over this period. Combining only these two natural influences, therefore, we might have expected some cooling over this period. Q: How confident are you that warming has taken place and that humans are mainly responsible? A: I’m 100% confident that the climate has warmed. As to the second question, I would go along with IPCC Chapter 9 – there’s evidence that most of the warming since the 1950s is due to human activity.

You can stop laughing now…. ~Eowyn

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