Author Archives: Deplorable Patriot

Dishonest Democrats doing it their way

Almost half of all homeless people in the United States are in California with 19% living in Los Angeles. This is just one of many problems residents of California face since the criminal organization democrat party got control of the state. The top three things you can always count on the democrats are being dishonest, corruption and destroying everything they touch.   The first two is how they got control of California.  It appears they are making a huge effort to accomplish the third in California.  At times there seems to be no logic, no intelligence behind some of the decisions they make.  It does not appear that they are concerned the Residents of California.

They didn’t get full control overnight.  It took a few years but they were successful.   Dishonest, but successful.  They got there by winning elections.  When it comes to elections, “Democrat” is synonymous to “election fraud”.  I have yet to see an honest democrat.

In California, the Secretary of State responsible for securing the elections.  “An election is only as fair and honest as the people that oversee it.”

Lets go back to 2007.  Voting systems compromised by democrats

Debra Lynn Bowen , a member of the Democratic Party, was the Secretary of State of California from 2007 to 2015.  In  2007  Bowen commissioned a “Top to Bottom Review” of California’s electronic voting systems, to determine their security.  In August  2007, Bowen withdrew approval and certification and conditionally re-approved three electronic voting systems (Diebold Election Systems, Hart InterCivic, Sequoia Voting Systems), and rescinded approval of a fourth system, (Election Systems & Software), after the top-to-bottom review of the voting machines found the machines to be highly insecure.  So basically after finding the systems faulty, no real changes were made.  For these efforts she was awarded the Profile in Courage Award by the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum.  Which is about as laughable as Obama’s Nobel prize.

*The following election in 2008 is where we see an increase of democrat voters and a decline of republican voters.  This trend repeating  itself each year until present date.

Below are screen shots of the voting systems used in California before the review and after the review.  I’ve also provided links to view the voting systems from 2006 to 2018. Clicking on the year will link you to the original PDF.  I should point out that between 2008 and 2018 some of the counties  switched brands of equipment.  Some of the new brands of equipment are the the same company as the original ones, Same product with a new name .  All of these, new and old have a history of errors.  None of them are 100% secure. For more details about security of each brand and general information click here  and scroll to the lower part of page.   Far too much for me to cover today but is worth taking the time to take a look.

Voting system before review

2006

vote1.jpg

Voting system after review

2008

vote2.jpg

 

 2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

In 2015 California got a new Secretary of State. Alex Padilla, a democrat.   After the 2018 elections, Padilla made a decision to replace all voting machines in California. “Padilla has long been concerned about the vulnerability of the nation’s voting machines. “We have done more to respond to hanging chads,” he told NBC News, “than we have done to respond to Vladimir Putin and the threats by Russian intelligence officials against our elections.”    Many of the current systems have only been used once, some twice.  Why didn’t he  replace them before the 2018 elections?    A feature with some of the current systems is that they record voting data that can be reviewed for a recount or audit.  Maybe that’s why he is in such a rush to change machines.

There are more changes in California.  Tens of thousands of neighborhood polling places, are being replaced by absentee ballots and secure drop boxes.  This only creates more opportunities for voter fraud.

Since “voter fraud” came up, we have to take a minute to talk about the democrats and the 2018 elections in California.  At the end of election day all republican candidates were leading in votes.  After the mail in votes were counted and the votes the democrats turned in (ballot harvesting), every republican ended up losing.  Many people blame this on the fact that democrat lawmakers in California made changes with ballot harvesting, creating more opportunities for voter fraud.  That is entirely possible but I think there was a bigger problem.

In California, county clerks are required to examine, one percent of their electorate’s original paper ballots once they have been electronically tabulated to ensure that the machines’ results have not been compromised and are accurate. The inspection is only applied to ballots that have been turned in before or on election day.  Anything after election day do not get inspected.   This means that millions of  Vote-By-Mail (VBM) and provisional ballots are exempted from further examination.  In California about 1/3 of the votes were mail in.  This is how I believe the democrats stole the election in 2018.

Another problem is California’s automatic voter registration at the DMV.  Beside their new Kiosk being totally insecure and are waiting to be hacked.   Some past problems with the automatic voter registration are , mistaken records showing up at local election offices, upward of 100,000 inaccurate documents. Party preferences were wrong. Some non-citizens were mistakenly added to the voter rolls. Other DMV customers didn’t know they’d been registered. These errors were blamed on hackers.  These events happened 6 days before the program was launched.  Since then, at least 255k voter registration errors have been found.  Padilla none of the errors effected the election results in 2018.  He also blames the DMV  for the problems, but the only person responsible is Padilla himself .Bill AB 1461 Motor voter program.   What is also interesting is that  since the automatic voter registration launched,  there has been  an increase of registered democrats and a increase in “no party preference” with a decline of registered republicans.

stats

 

Currently it looks as democrats are making a huge effort to make elections less secure.  I also don’t believe the number of republicans are declining in California.  I think it’s just another part of the democrats con game for reasons I will discuss at a future date.  There is a bigger problem in California.  A problem that all residents of California should be concerned about.

Taking on the problems that exist at Californias’ DMV , Gavin Newsom made the decision to bring in a third party to solve the problem.  This was part of his “strike team?  The third party is “Code for America “  Code for America  describes themselves as follows, “We are a network of people making government work for the people, by the people, in the digital age. How do we get there? With government services that are simple, effective, and easy to use, working at scale to help all Americans, starting with the people who need them most.”.  They also like to refer themselves as “civic hackers”.  Their 60 member team is made up of 43 women and 17 men. They have 7 members on their Board of Directors.  One being the Founder and Executive Director who also heads the 60 member team.  At least 2 of the members were part of the Obama administration. They have 85 locations across the USA. Click here for a complete list of who funds them.  Here is a screen shot of the top donors.  code

Here is where you should be concerned.  Gavin Newsom gave full DMV access to Code for America.  That means that this group of “civic hackers” had full access all data, including voter information, of every resident in California.  Take a minute and think about what information the DMV  has on you.   Now what are the odds that 6  companies like Google that invested over $1,000,000 in Code for America now has that information.  Microsoft invested $999,000. You think they have your information.  Pretty good odds that your information is in their hands.  As if they didn’t have enough already. Go click the link I provided that shows who funds Code for America.  Actually here is the link again. Click here.

The data breach is only part of the problem.  Newsom brought in a non government source to make decisions  on how part of our state government should be operated.  That source being Code for America which all final decisions are made by 1 person.  That person is Jennifer Pahlka,

Founder and Executive Director, Code for America

Jennifer Pahlka is the founder and executive director of Code for America. She served as the U.S. Deputy Chief Technology Officer in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy from 2013–2014

Code for America getting full access to the DMV is pure speculation on my part.  Considering the circumstances I could not see how they could complete their task without access.  What I do know is that I don’t like third parties with their own agenda making  decisions on how to any part of the state should function.

Newsom is no stranger to Code for America as you can see here.

This is just another example of how the democrats are selling out the residents of California.  No matter where you stand in politics this is an issue everyone should be concerned about.

Now as far as the declining republicans in California.  Were told that they are moving out of state to the adjacent states.  If that were true there would be increase of registered republican voters in those states, which there is not.  I think some republican ballots are being manipulated.  Here is one example.  When Trump ran I registered to vote by mail  They wanted proof of who I was.  I never sent proof but they still sent me ballot I checked to see if I was registered and it said yes., Mailed my Ballot and it came back.  Not sure what happened.  Then I checked to see if I was registered and it said no.  The day after the election I had got another ballot in the mail.  Now in 2018, I still had not provided proof that I was me.  I checked if I was registered and it said yes.  I got my ballot in the mail.  Lost it somewhere and  requested a new one.  Checked again and it said I was not registered.  Today it says I am registered.

By now you should be just as confused as I am as far as my ballot situation goes.  I had an easier time signing up to run for president in 2020.

 

QAnon community-8chan will be up and running soon.

Respectfully

Deplorable Patriot.

 

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Your tax dollars in action. Are you getting what you paid for?

Never before have I seen the amount of attention that members of the House of Representative  or the Senate are currently  receiving  from the media.  Maybe it was because I wasn’t paying attention.  Well, today I am.  Maybe I should have titled it “Your tax dollars in action, Are you getting who you paid for?”

Not a day goes by that I don’t hear someone from a legislator serving in the U.S. Congress accuse the POTUS wasting taxpayer money in one way or another.   One day it’s Trump wasting money by traveling to  his home in New York, the next day he’s setting up government contracts so his business will profit.  Almost all accusations come from democrats  and obviously are “made up” with no supporting proof.  Sometimes they openly admit the accusations are untrue and their motive is only to cause damage to President Trump’s reputation.  They get away with it because, like any other lie or story they fabricate, they are protected by hiding behind “Congressional Immunity. ”  Clearly the founding fathers didn’t have this sort  of abuse in mind.

Without getting into details, “How much do we pay POTUS?  How much do we pay legistators ?

According to Title 3 of the US code, a president earns a $400,000 salary, $50,000 annual expense account, $100,000 nontaxable travel account, and $19,000 for entertainment. POTUS still remains on the payroll after leaving office. ( In 2001 Congress raised the   salary from $200,000 to $400,000 and added an extra expense allowance of $50,000 a year).

Legislators serving in the US Congress have earned $174,000 annually. House leadership earns more.  Speaker of the House at $223,500,  Majority Leader and Minority Leader at $193,400.  Senate Leadership is Majority Leader at $193,400 and Minority Leader at $193,400.

In addition to their pay each legislator  is eligible  for the following,

In the U.S. Senate, the Senators’ Official Personnel and Office Expense Account (SOPOEA).  Anywhere  from $3,043,454 to $4,815,203 for each Senator.

In the House of Representatives ,  the Members’ Representational Allowance (MRA). Anywhere from $1,207,510 to $1,383,709.

Total wages annually  is $93,217,100, with a total of $481,520,300 to SOPEA(high end) and a total of $601,913,415 to (MRA).

For a more detailed report on legislator pay click Here

COMPARISON

PRESIDENT  total is $569,000 annually(president doesn’t  take a paycheck so total is 0)

SENATE AND HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES  total is $1,176,650,815 annually (congress wants a raise).

*Totals are generalization .  Not accurate to exact dollar but pretty dam close

Without getting into details such as security, etc. clearly more tax dollars  are spent on legislators.  What about election season?  What up  when POTUS is campaigning ?  What about when a legislator  is running for president? Can they campaign  and still complete their duties their current job requires?

With Trump it’s easy.  He is able to do his job and campaign  at the same time.  With the legislators it’s an entirely different story.  Apparently  legislators cannot campaign  and effectively do their jobs.  Let’s take a look at some of the legislators that are running for president.  Let’s check their  attendance when it comes to voting on new legislation.   After all, we are paying them to be there, to vote for us.

Sen. Harris [D-CA]

Kamala

Sen. Booker [D-NJ]

 

Booker

Sen. Sanders [I-VT]

bernie

Sen. Gillibrand [D-NY]

gil

Sen. Warren [D-MA]

Warren

 

Sen. Bennet [D-CO]

Bennett

Sen. Klobuchar [D-MN]

amy

Rep. Swalwell [D-CA15]

swallowed-.jpg

Rep. Ryan [D-OH13]

ryan

Rep. Gabbard [D-HI2]

tulsie.jpg

 

Rep. Moulton [D-MA6]

multon.jpg

 

 

Data Sourced from GovTrack

Click here for more candidates details

 

 

As you can see, the Democrat candidates cannot campaign and fulfill the duties their job requires. Since they are still receiving  a paycheck, ultimately, they are ripping off the American taxpayer.  If they cannot be honest now, why should anyone think they would be an honest president?  This is a situation where political party loyalty  does not matter.  Every American should be outraged.

Congress has oversite over the Executive Branch and the Judicial Branch.  It works, up to a point.  That point is when Congress has become lawless and gone rogue.  One example is when Congress doesn’t get what they want , they turn to extorsion methods, like they are doing with the Supreme Court. Another would be how they charged the Attorney  General(AG) with contempt ,  for not providing specific information which would have required  the AG to break the law.  Currently the democrat majority  in the House of Representative  has gone rogue.  It’s lawless behavior has made them one of the most powerful criminal organizations in the world.  Congress has oversite over Congress.  It is unlikely that they will remove one of their own.   They continue to run America into the ground with a strong socialist twist.  In some cases, a communist twist.  The Senate and POTUS seem to be keeping them in check.  Still, I believe that may not be enough.  Eventually it will take American Patriots to march on DC and physically remove these criminals and jail them, where they belong.

Respectfully

Deplorable patriot

 

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Goliath Boeing meets it’s David, Ethiopian Airlines (for about a minute)

It was December 13, 2011 when the first order was placed for 150 of the 737 MAX. Malindo Air made the first revenue flight of the 737 MAX on May 22, 2017. A year later 130 of the 737 MAX had been delivered to 28 customers. The Max had made more than 41,797 flights and 118,006 flight hours. That’s 6.5 million passengers transported safely.  At that time, 4,509 orders had been placed for the 737 MAX by 98 customers.

Now it’s been another year. After the Ethiopian airlines accident, Total orders for the MAX has gone down to 4037.  Boeing still made 387 deliveries of the 737 MAX. That’s just short of 3 times as many planes delivered that first year. If a person wanted to make a educated guess and update the numbers all they would do is take the first year and multiply by 4 so for a total 2 years combined it would be 4 x 118,006, 4 x 41,797 and 4 x 6.5 million. To date it’s around 472,024 flight hours, 167,188 flights and 26 million passengers transported.  Not gospel, just an educated guess based on the information available.

*472,024 flight hours is equal to 53.84 calendar years

*Lion Air flight JT610 had 189 deaths. Ethiopian flight 302 had 157 deaths. On record for the 737 max that’s 459 deaths out of around 26 million passengers transported, Flight hours total of 472,024 and 167,188 flights.  Zero deaths are preferred but when you compare it to other possible ways of dying you would be better off living on a airplane.  Here are some examples: Causes of death in the USA alone, year 2017 specific there were 41,100 motor vehicles related deaths. 5,147 on the job deaths. 6000 deaths were pedestrians just walking around.

We are well past the testing stage yet we have two airplanes down with 100% fatalities. Both new Boeing 737 MAX’s Many blame Boeing for the downed aircraft. They describe the pilots as being well trained there was nothing they could do the keep the plane in the air.  The pilots are being made out to be victims. At least that’s how some of the biased Fake News and the CEO of Ethiopian Airlines, Tewolde Gebremariam would like us to believe. Although Boeing admits there is a problem with their design, It was not something that a properly trained pilot could not solve and get around.  In the USA, pilots on 50 different occasions found themselves in situations similar to those  that Flight JT610 and Flight ET302 experienced.  The faced the same problems with different results.  The pilots in the USA did not crash their airplanes.  I had to find out why.

quick review on Lion Airlines and Ethiopian Airlines.

Lion Airlines.

  • 2002- Crash of Boeing 737-200 after taking off from Sultan Syarif Kasim II International Airport. No loss of life.

  • 2004- Crash of Flight 538 on November 30 2004, operated by a McDonnell Douglas MD-. 82, which saw the loss of 25 lives

  • 2006- MD-82 and a Boeing 737-400 were written off in two separate events. No loss of life in both incidents.

  • 2007- Banned from operating within both EU and US airspace.

  • 2010- Flight 712. Boeing 737-800 overshot the runway at Supadio Airport. Several injured

  • 2012- Two of its pilots caught in possession of crystal meth.

  • 2013- Flight 904 crashed into the water after an attempted landing at Denpasar in Bali.

  • 2014- Aircraft’s tail struck the runway at Ngurah Rah International Airport .

  • 2016- Flight 263 overran the runway at Juanda International Airport.

  • 2018- Boeing 737-800 nose-gear collapsed after a landing in heavy rain.

In 2016 Lion Air got the “all-clear” after being banned from EU airspace.   Also, the EU removed a number of other Indonesian airlines from its blacklist in June 2018.  More than likely this was done because of the country’s changes in regulatory bodies.  Not because of any improvements of the airlines themselves. Apparently Indonesia carries a increased infrastructure risk and an increased flight crew risk.  There is a history of lack of cooperation between captains and first officers, with the latter reticent to challenge a captain’s decisions.

Prior to October, the 737 MAX had an impeccable safety record.  In October Lion Air confirmed that the aircraft in question (PK-LQP/JT610) had a unspecified “technical problem” during a previous flight but that it had been “resolved according to procedure” and “there were no plans to ground any of its other 737 MAX 8’s”.  Since this has been already covered by various media outlets, I won’t get into too many details.  I’ll keep it simple and describe the “technical problem” as being that the pilots were having a problem keeping the plane flying or perhaps a more accurate description would be “Flight control problems.”

On that previous flight pilots faced “flight control problems” it appears as if they would have crashed the plane. Fortunate for them, a passenger(off duty pilot that hitched a ride to his next assignment) stepped in and found a solution to their problem. Essentially, saving the lives of everyone on that flight.   That alone should be a red flag letting us know that those pilots did not have enough training or knowledge to be flying the MAX.   It is also disappointing that the pilots never passed the solution to the “the technical problem” on to the next pilots flying the plane.. Flight Jt610.    Better communication alone would have saved lives. Essentially, the pilots are responsible for the lives of the passengers. The airlines are responsible for the training of their pilots, not the manufacture of the aircraft. Lion Air dropped the ball on this one but they still point the finger at Boeing.   Still, they blame Boeing’s Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS).

Safety Action taken as a result of the accident(JT610) and known to the Investigation has included but has not been limited to the following:

  • The Boeing Company issued FCOM Bulletin (OMB) Number TBC-19 on 6 November 2018 on ‘un-commanded nose down stabilizer trim due to erroneous Angle of Attack during manual flight only’ to emphasise the procedures provided in the runaway stabilizer Abnormal Checklist. On 11 November 2018, they also issued a Multi Operator Message (MOM) on ‘Multi Model Stall Warning and Pitch Augmentation Operation’.

  • The Federal Aviation Administration issued an Emergency AD 2018-23-51 in respect of all Boeing 737-8 MAX and 737-9 MAX aircraft on 7 November 2018 which required, within three days of receipt, revisions to the certificate limitations and operating procedures contained in the AFM to provide flight crews with “runaway horizontal stabilizer trim procedures to follow under certain conditions”. The FAA noted the AD was “prompted by analysis performed by the manufacturer showing that if an erroneously high single angle of attack (AA) sensor input is received by the flight control system, there is a potential for repeated nose-down trim commands of the horizontal stabilizer”. The FAA also stated in the AD that it had been issued because excessive nose-down attitude, significant altitude loss in this situation“could cause the flight crew to have difficulty controlling the airplane and lead to […] significant altitude loss and possible impact with terrain”.

Ethiopian Airlines

This isn’t Ethiopian Airlines first rodeo when it comes to aircraft incidents. Several hijackings, several pilots errors such as over running runway or hitting trees. A couple destroyed by rebels of which one was aircraft shot while landing. One shot down in flight for flying over prohibited area. A couple downed by bird strikes. One had a flat tire and crashed. One hit a mountain, etc. It appears a couple crashed just trying to fly. The following image is from a page in Wikipedia

After the Lion Air crash and the FAA and Boeing’s bulletins were released I would think that everyone who gets near a Boeing Max would want to know everything about it before taking flight. Ethiopian Airlines disaster on March 10 proved that to not to be true.  Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam  has been making a great effort to convince the public that the pilots of flight ET302 were well qualified to fly the MAX.  He claims that they were current on training and any updates/ bulletins.  He denies any possibility of pilot error and acts as if only  Boeing is to blame for the accident because of a specific flight control problems(faulty MCAS).  The truth actually being that pilots lacked knowledge when it came to the MCAS.  I should point out that if the specific flight control problem arose and the pilots were updated on training, the plane would not have crashed.  It’s a two button fix and as I mentioned earlier, pilots in the USA faced this problem more than 50 times with zero fatalities.  Part of that 2 button fix was disengaging the auto pilot and fly the plane manually. We are told in the preliminary crash investigation report that the pilots had disengaged the auto pilot then turned it back on.  Boeing and the FAA bulletins were pretty clear and very direct.  Had the pilots been current in their training and read the bulletins, they wouldn’t have needed to spend time looking through the manual for a solution.  I should also point out the fact that if a pilot needs to pull out the owners manual in flight, that person probably shouldn’t be flying the plane.

How much time did these pilots for Ethiopian Airlines have behind the stick?

The pilot in command had a total of 8,100 flight time hours with only 103 hours in a B737-8MAX.  No flight time in the last 72 hours.

The First Officer had a total of 361 flight time hours(207 and 26 minutes in the previous 90 days).  Flight time in the previous 72 hours was 5 hours and 25 minutes and in the B737-8MAX he had 56 hours.

Between the two they had a total of 159 hours flight time in the MAX.  The second in command has not held the rank as First officer for very long.  Junior First Officer would be more appropriate.

On March 20, 2018 the New York Times reported the following, “ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Ethiopian Airlines surpassed many carriers by becoming one of the first to install a simulator to teach pilots how to fly the new Boeing 737 Max 8, but the captain of the doomed Flight 302 never trained on the simulator, according to people close to the airline’s operations.

“The people, who spoke on condition of anonymity because Ethiopian Airlines had not authorized disclosure of the information, said the carrier had the Max 8 simulator up and running in January, two months before Flight 302 crashed.”

Ethiopian Airlines is making a huge effort to put the blame on Boeing’s MCAS stating there are similarities between Flight ET302 and JT610.  “Similarities” is a word that gives us many options.  For example, “They were both airplanes”, “They both had passengers”,”Both were made of various types of metals”, “They both crashed shortly after take off”.  Basically “similarities” can be anything, or it can be nothing.
There is a flight that is more similar to flight ET302.  Apparently they forgot about the
January 2010 accident to Flight ET409 which crashed only 4 min 15s after departure from Beirut.  Pilot error was the cause of that accident.  (Ethiopian Airlines still refuses to accept it was their pilot’s error causing the crash). 
4 minutes is a lot closer to 6 minutes than it is to 13 minutes and being that it’s the same airline, more attention should focused on Ethiopian Airlines.

There are other  possible causes for Flight ET302 and JT610 accidents besides the MCAS. They get little attention even though they makes more sense.  Here is one example.  Here is what  Bjorn Fehrm at Leeham News has to say,

I know from pilots who have tested to fly a 737 in the simulator that you can keep the nose up with the Pilot controlled elevator, even against a full nose down trimmed horizontal stabilizer.

So why did JT610 and ET302 dive and crash? The pilots held against as the simulator pilots did? We know this for sure for JT610 where we have the Column force traces (C in diagram) and can assume this for ET302.”

MCAS didn’t crash the aircraft, Blow back did.”

The cause of the final dive has bugged me since the Flight Data Recorder (FDR) traces from JT601 were released. I couldn’t find a plausible answer. I tried different theories but none was convincing.

This week a poster in the Professional Pilot’s forum revealed the Boeing 737 has a blow back elevator problem at high dynamic pressures (thanks Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times for pointing me to this post). Now the penny dropped.

I know all about blow back problems of elevators. It was the most dangerous shortcoming of the fighter I flew, the SAAB J35 Draken. Even more dangerous than its famous “Super stall”, a Pugachev Cobra like deep stall behavior the aircraft would only exit from if you “rock it out” of the stall (more on this some other time). While “Super stall” is scary, Blow back is deadly.

Blow back means the elevator is gradually blown back to lower and lower elevation angles by the pressure of the air as the speed increases. The hydraulic actuators can’t overcome the force of the air and gradually back down if the force of the air grows too strong.

If a blow back phenomenon is confirmed for the 737 at the speeds and altitudes flown, this is what happened at the end of the JT610 flight and probably ET302.”

When a pilot experiences a stall warning like a stick shaker, his reaction is to lower the nose and increase the speed. He wants to build a margin to an eventual stall. If he simultaneously has “Unreliable airspeed” warning, the built margin will be larger.

In both of these cases, the pilots are flying faster than normal at the low altitudes they flew (5,000ft pressure altitude for JT610, 9,000ft for ET302). This is to build a safety margin while sorting out stall warning and flight control problems.

As they pass 300kts they enter the area of elevator blow back according to the poster. As the FO is losing the nose due to short counter trims against MCAS at B in Figure 2, the speed increases at the same time as more angle is required to keep the nose level.

As blow back stops him from getting the elevator angle he needs, the aircraft started a dive at D and speed increased further. The FO pulls harder but nothing happens (C in Figure 2). The Captain now stops reading the QRH and pulls as well. It’s too late. The elevator is gradually blown down to lower and lower angles as the speed increases and the dive deepens.

What could have been done?

The only remedy to the blow back induced dive would have been a full nose up trim application, for a long time (throttles to idle and air brake would also have helped). But the reaction to trim is slow and the aircraft was now heading for earth. The reflex is not to trim but to pull for all there is, by both pilots, you have seconds to stop the dive. It didn’t help.

If this is confirmed as the scenario for the end of both JT610 and ET302 I wonder why the danger of flying to fast at low altitude, while sorting out a raiding MCAS, was not communicated when the MCAS Airworthiness Directive was released after the JT610 crash.

MCAS forcing the horizontal stabilizer to full nose down should not have doomed JT610 or ET302. Their applied speed margins did.

The JT610 crew knew nothing about MCAS and a potential blow back problem. The ET302 crew knew about the MCAS problem but not about the danger of flying to fast while sorting MCAS.

I have checked with longtime pilots of the 737. They have not heard of a Blow back problem when flying at elevated speeds at low altitude. And before MCAS there was no reason to, it was beyond normal flying practice.

But the JT610 investigators saw what can happen when you run into the MCAS rodeo. Why didn’t they warn to keep speeds within normal speed range for the altitude?”

As you can see there is a lot of attention directed at the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS). In reality, there are many possible scenarios for flight Et302 and JT610. A iced over sensor with the plane moving slightly sideways will give readings on on side that will be different on the other. Time must be taken to do a proper investigation. It’s too soon to finalize the investigations in both cases.

The Bureau d’Enquêtes et d’Analyses (BEA) who helped with the Flight302 investigation has this to say about aircraft investigations,

The safety investigation into a public transport accident is a complex process, even when the flight recorders are available, since, given the high level of safety that is reached in public transport in advanced countries, an accident necessarily results from a chain of causes in which each event is highly unlikely. All possible factors must be reviewed: the weather, the preparation of the flight, air traffic control, the condition of the aeroplane, the pilots’ qualifications, the organization of the airline, etc., all of which requires considerable work in seeking out information from all of those involved.A large-scale investigation lasts two years on average, rarely less, sometimes much longer. As long as it is not finished, the BEA refuses to speculate on any scenarios for the accident that bring no understanding of the causes and thus improve safety and can only further disturb the families of the victims and public opinion.”

Another search for the truth

The preliminary reports have been released for both accidents. I’ve provided links to them along with all sources at the end of this report. Prior to the release of the final report, I believe the following information related to Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 (ET-AVJ) should be reviewed.

Flight data

Flightradar24(FR24) appears to be one of the primary sources of tracking data and evidence used by the investigators of the accidents and as a reliable source for the media and the public\private citizen. Because of FR24’s direct involvement I will be utilizing some their data in this report.

Flightradar24 s a flight tracker that shows live air traffic from around the world. Flightradar24 combines data from several data sources including ADS-B, MLAT and radar data. The ADS-B, MLAT and radar data is aggregated together with schedule and flight status data from airlines and airports.”

*The lack of any authentication within the standard makes it mandatory to validate any received data by use of the primary radar. Because the content of ADS-B messages is not encrypted, it may be read by anybody.

*A security researcher claimed in 2012 that ADS-B has no defense against being interfered with via spoofed ADS-B messages because they were neither encrypted nor authenticated.

FR24 records data transmitted by each aircraft. Data such as speed, altitude, location, tracking, etc. Basically, they take the tracking data and present it in a animated graphic(fig 1) along with various stats. The data is also available to download in csv or kml format. They are a “go to” source worldwide for this type of information. For more details on how FR24 works click here

fig 1

Gathering and reconstructing Flight data

The following images are flight data sets with corresponding graphs I created to help get a better understanding of the Flight ET302(ET-AVJ) crash and see if I could find relevant similarities or differences . I extracted the data from csv files downloaded from FR24. The data is from Flight 302, ET-AVJ, March 10, 2019, as well as the first 5 to 6 minutes of flight data from Flight 302 on march 9, 2019, data from 2 flights on march 11, 2019 and data from one flight on march 5, 2019. Think as the flight data as being a 6 minute timeline with limited data. Limited but vital data. This is the current data FR24 has available for the public. Click here for direct link to these flights on FR24

The first image is just the list of flights I just mentioned. The second image is Flight ET302(ET-AVJ) Data table and graph. The first thing I should point out is the lack of data. Only 12 lines of data. The others have 32, 21, 34, and 68 lines of data.

FR24 calls the 12 line version, the “basic” version which is supposed to be 5 second reporting intervals. The long version is the granular CSV (multiple reports per second).

Normally the granular version is not available. Normally basic version is not so lacking in data.

Process and discovery of altered tracking data

In figure A is flight ET302 granular data. The first graph is the longitude of the airplane as it travels. Below it is the latitude. Together we are able to find the aircraft as it travels. As you travel these numbers change. They are always in sequence. It does not matter what direction you travel. The numbers may increase or decrease, but always in sequence. On a graph, the path should be even. Change in altitude does not matter. An example would be position 19 thru 40 in the longitude graph. What you shouldn’t see is what is in the red circle. The even path has become irregular. This tells us that there is a problem with the data. To double check I took the data from basic csv and matched it to the granular data(basic data are just parts of the granular data). See figure B

figure A

In figure B I put the granular data on the left and the basic data on the right.  I matched the time data(right) to the appropriate time slot that is stated on the left. Rows 7, 11, 51, 56, 85, 90, 100, 109, 116 are the correct positions.  Each red box with bold text are either latitude or longitude out of sequence problems.  You would have to travel backwards to be in some of these coordinates. Not likely to happen traveling at the szpeed they were traveling.  These are not glitches or software errors.  It takes human intervention to to make these mistakes. The data has been altered and they did a poor job at it.

figure B

Why would someone want to alter the data or hide it?  Any slight change in the data can paint a different picture to how the plane crashed.  The data provided here, before altering it shows the pilots had gained control of the aircraft and were climbing in altitude, not in a nose dive like we are told.. It makes it harder to blame the crash solely on the MCAS. It opens the door for pilot error.

In the preliminary report it says the major problems happened between 5:41 and 5:44. That’s when it took the nose dive and crashed. Explain that?  On March 10, 2019 at 1:30 A.M. FR24 had made a tweet stating that they had only tracked 3 minutes of flight ET302.  They posted an image of that data.  It is the original, first released information on Flight ET302(ET-AVJ).  Then we were told the plane crashed in 6 minutes. That was the final story. 6 minutes.  The data tracking starts at 5:35, that’s 9 minutes.  Plane gets in the air at 5:38, 6 minutes.  In 3 minutes the plane flies 14 miles.  FR24 claims that’s as far as they were able to track the flight even though the can cover anywhere between 150 to 250 miles. (check out graphs and links to flight data I provided for visual on tracking range). This was also the moment when air traffic control lost communication.  Usually when communication ends like that while plane is still in the air, it a sign that that’s when the plane suffered it’s major damage. Tracking, when in range stays on until impact or plane explodes. If it’s in the air, it’s getting tracked.

We are told the plane flew another 22.8 miles, way off course, in the final 3 minutes.  That three minutes is when they lost control of the airplane.  No real evidence to back it up.  Just the word of Ethiopian airlines and a weak explanation in the preliminary report.  They say the info comes from the planes “black boxes” They not letting anyone see the data they have so we cannot verify the data.


 

Besides the altered tracking data and Ethiopian Airlines word, there is more to question.

Why does the preliminary report say no fire? Here is a screenshot from a page in the preliminary report.

 

 

Apparently, some things don’t matter to Ethiopian Airlines when they do investigations. I don’t believe they have the truth in mind. How could you when you ignore eye witnesses.

Reuters reported the following

GARA-BOKKA, Ethiopia (Reuters) – The Ethiopian Airlines plane that crashed killing 157 people was making a strange rattling noise and trailed smoke and debris as it swerved above a field of panicked cows before hitting earth, according to witnesses.

Half a dozen witnesses interviewed by Reuters in the farmland where the plane came down reported smoke billowing out behind, while four of them also described a loud sound.

It was a loud rattling sound. Like straining and shaking metal,” said Turn Buzuna, a 26-year-old housewife and farmer who lives about 300 meters (328 yards) from the crash site.”“Everyone says they have never heard that kind of sound from a plane and they are under a flight path,” she added.

Malka Galato, 47, a barley and wheat farmer whose field the plane crashed in, also described smoke and sparks from the back. “The plane was very close to the ground and it made a turn… Cows that were grazing in the fields ran in panic,” he said.

Tamirat Abera, 25, was walking past the field at the time. He said the plane turned sharply, trailing white smoke and items like clothes and papers, then crashed about 300 meters away.

It tried to climb but it failed and went down nose first,” he said. “There was fire and white smoke which then turned black.”

As the plane had only just taken off, it was loaded with fuel.

At the site, Red Cross workers in masks sifted gently through victims’ belongings. Children’s books – Dr Seuss’s “Oh The Thinks You Can Think” and “Anne of Green Gables” – lay near a French-English dictionary burned along one edge.

A woman’s brown handbag, the bottom burned, lay open next to an empty bottle of perfume.

The aircraft was broken into small pieces, the largest among them a wheel and a dented engine. The debris was spread over land roughly the size of two soccer fields.

Investigators found two black box recorders on Monday, which will help piece together the plane’s final minutes.

When it was hovering, fire was following its tail, then it tried to lift its nose,” said another witness, Gadisa Benti. “When it passed over our house, the nose pointed down and the tail raised up. It went straight to the ground with its nose, it then exploded.”

There was no mention of the witnesses in the preliminary report..

  • image 1

  • Something to think about is that Air Traffic Control said communication with ET302 ended abruptly while plane was still in the air. Not at the time of impact. This usually means major damage happened while in flight. The plane was trailing smoke. Ethiopian Air force (image 1) is just south of Et302’s flight path. Could they have shot the plane by accident? Whatever happened, it’s hard for me to believe a plane hit the ground with engines running with full tanks of fuel and there wasn’t any fire.

The following images are from the ET302 the crash site. How did the objects in the photos get burned and why does the ground appear to be scorched if there wasn’t any fire?

 


Investigation into employees

The New York times reported that the first officer of Indonesian JT610 was praying and screamed “God is great”(allah ‘akbar). The first officer on Flight 302 appeared to have connections to Muslim extremist on his “friends list”.(I am aware that these countries have a substantial Muslim population and “allah ‘akbar” would be used often.

Why didn’t the possibility of these planes being the result of terrorist attacks never get discussed or investigated?

It doesn’t look as if they spent much time looking into employee backgrounds, lifestyles or associates. Flight ET302, full of UN members would be an ideal “soft target” for a terrorist. Ethiopian Airlines has had terrorist problems in the past. (clipping 1)

clipping 1

 

Another question is why are people going straight to Boeing to file lawsuits? First step should be the airlines because it was their pilots. Second step would be the owners of the airplanes. And then, if necessary, the manufacturer of the plane.

There are many questions still to be asked and answered. Why should anybody believe Ethiopian airlines when they will not provide the supporting evidence?

As I already mentioned, Ethiopian Airlines added almost 3 minutes of data at the end of flight ET302 flight data. They claim the data was on the “black boxes”. Nobody else has seen the info on the Black boxes. Only the BEA who only assisted. They turned over all information to Ethiopian Airlines. What they didn’t turn over, they destroyed.  Why can’t we see the data?

Ethiopia in general has a history of corruption.  The land is owned by the state and they rent it out to it’s citizens. Often land is revoked and rented to foreign countries.  When in need for help from a public official, you are expected to bring a gift.  It’s the same with the police. They claim free speech but they lock up journalist. All the media is controlled by the government. Here is some additional information on Ethiopia. We have Bertelsmann Stiftung to thank for the information/report

BTI 2018 | Ethiopia Country Report


Executive Summary

Political freedoms declined on all indexes, with the Freedom House Index again rating Ethiopia as “not free,” with civil liberties and political rights a low six on a scale of seven.

Ethiopia saw a rapid regression in democratization and the imperatives of the market economy over the last two years. The country’s ruling coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), won all 547 parliamentary seats in the 2015 elections, largely regarded by Western election observers as not fair, not credible and not competitive. In the years leading to the election, the government shrank the political space to extinction, eliminating the institutional and discursive conditions necessary for a free and fair election, such as the opposition, media, civil society and critical voices.

Since November 2015, unprecedented large-scale protests swept the country’s largest and most populous regional state, Oromia, leading to the death of over 1,000 people. In July 2016, the protests spread to the Amhara region, the second largest and most populous region, leading to massive instability and violent confrontation between security forces and the army on the one hand, and local farmers, on the other. These protests saw the explosion of long-simmering ethnic discontent and anger, leading to the destruction of government and private property, especially foreign investors.

On October 9, 2016, the government took the extraordinary step of officially declaring a state of emergency to restore peace and order in the country. While the country has always been under de facto emergency rule since the government came to power, the declared emergency was a clear signal that the government was unable to restore peace and order under the usual circumstances.

Under the guise of an emergency, the government authorized security forces to use draconian and far-reaching power throughout the country, resulting in the restrictions of a broad range of rights such as free expression, assembly and association.

Since the imposition of the emergency, the government has used arbitrary force and carried out arrests and abuses against journalists, bloggers, opposition and perceived opposition politicians, protesters and academics. It orchestrated politically driven trials against some of the most outspoken voices in the opposition camp to coerce all critical voices and their followers into submission. Security forces used excessive force against protestors and routinely committed acts of torture and ill-treatment of suspected dissidents.

The dogged protests of the last year, which took place in the face of overwhelming violence from security forces, represent an unqualified rejection not only of the government but also its top-down development policies. Since Ethiopia’s narrative of development is one of the most potent sources of both internal and external legitimacy for the government, protestors targeted the businesses and assets of foreign investors and multinational companies to air their grievances. The Ethiopian government denies the existence of any link between democracy and economic growth and seeks to ensure rapid economic growth without opening up the political process, under oppressive conditions. This approach has led to a situation in which investors are being seen as complicit with the repression. Since these investors deliberately enter the markets knowing full well that they are investing in a country that is known for abusing its own citizens and dispossessing its population, these investors were seen as legitimate targets by pro-democracy protestors and other organized forces. This will have serious ramifications both for democracy and market economy going forward.

The state of emergency has enabled the government to stabilize the country, but the anger and resentment on the part of the population only increased. If the government continues to maintain a tight grip on the country without implementing genuine reforms, it is likely to face a major crisis.

In the economic domain, GDP growth continued with a 7% to 10% increase annually, in spite of a major drought since 2015. The famine impacted food production and put millions of people into dangerous, food-insecure conditions. The systematic lack of land property rights prevents farmers from improving soil fertility, irrigation and farm equipment. In combination with the neglect of the government to organize and encourage family planning, the outdated agricultural policy of the regime resulted in social conditions that continue to make Ethiopia one of the world’s poorest countries. Annually the country receives more than $3 billion in official development aid (ODA) transfers ($3.261 million in 2012).

With the help of some 800 foreign-financed agrarian land schemes (cotton, sugar, flowers, sesame, cattle) the government hopes to accelerate and modernize agriculture. While millions of indigenous peasants lose their traditional access to land and water, due to land grabbing, the impact on local employment is rather small. Dependency on foreign countries and foreign financial transfers increased, and foreign debts nearly doubled within five years (from $156.5 million in 2011-2012 to $292.3 million in 2014-2015).

History and Characteristics of Transformation

It has been nearly half a century since Ethiopia’s revolution deposed the Solomonic dynasty and almost a quarter of a century since the current regime defeated the military dictatorship and assumed state power. So, Ethiopia experienced two major transitions in the course of the last five decades that are central to understanding the state of democracy and market-based economy in Ethiopia today.

The 1974 revolution transformed what was almost a medieval empire into a highly centralized dictatorship of the proletariat, and the 1991 transition led to a federal state structure. Without a doubt, both these moments of transitions have brought about a radical ideological and institutional change, almost a paradigm shift, in the form and structure of the Ethiopian state. The one thing that didn’t change in these forty years – the one subject that remained more or less constant despite changes and transitions in governing ideologies – is the state of human rights and democratization.

When the current government assumed power following the demise of the military dictatorship, it promised a clean break with the past and a new beginning toward a free and democratic society. The “Transitional Charter” adopted in July 1991 proclaimed “a new chapter in Ethiopian history in which freedom, equal rights and self-determination of all the peoples shall be the governing principles of political, economic, and social life.” Three years later, on December 8, 1994, a new constitution promised, “a political community founded on the rule of law and capable of ensuring a lasting peace,” and codified an extensive list of individual and group rights. Human rights, the rule of law, and democratic governance were recognized as the central constitutive and regulative principles of the new Ethiopian body politic. The constitution further guaranteed people’s right to self-determination including the right to secession. By any standards, this was a radically democratic constitution that appeared to respond to the demands of the day.

However, despite the constitution, Ethiopia remained authoritarian par excellence. Far from ensuring a democratic government under the rule of law in which individuals and groups live in freedom and equality, the constitution was reduced to a mere instrument used to justify, conceal and normalize the oppressive and violent nature of the system.

The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) under Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (1991-2012) did not feel threatened until the 2005 federal and regional elections. The crackdown that year on the opposition demonstrated the extent to which the regime was willing to ignore popular protest and foreign criticism to hold on to power.

Instead of ensuring the reign of equality and justice, the constitution became a tool used by the ruling elites to secure and sustain existing relationships of ethnic inequality and domination in the country. The preservation and consolidation of the existing relationship of domination and inequality are now mainly achieved through the deployment of the devices of law and justice.

The use of the judicial branch to achieve these political goals is one of the primary means by which the government constructs legitimacy while repressing its political adversaries. In the name of “developmental democracy,” the government transformed its courts into another security apparatus whose job is not to question the government, but merely to rubber stamp decisions made by the government and its security apparatus.

Compared to its democratic trajectory, Ethiopia has made relatively positive economic progress. However, there is a growing sense that the economic growth in the country has not been equally shared among citizens and regions. The government officially subscribes to the policy of the developmental state and has been successful in instituting discourses and narratives that elevate development to a supreme sacrosanct status, a divine ideal that trumps everything else including basic demands for equality, the rule of law and justice. Lifting Ethiopia’s population from poverty is presented as the single most important responsibility of the government.

As the former Ethiopian prime minister, a man responsible for putting the current institutional and ideological architecture in place, noted, the government rejects the notion that there is a direct relationship between economic growth and democracy. Within this discourse, anyone who challenges the government’s development policies and programs, or raises questions about the constitutionality, legality, or proportionality of development projects, even when the project in question poses a clear and present danger to the very existence of a community, is labeled anti-development, which makes the person also labeled an enemy of the state.

While there are efforts at liberalization, resistance to reform and the defense of the status quo are two of the reasons behind the slow progress at liberalizing the economy and opening up the political space.

In the parliamentary elections of 2015, EPRDF and its various constituent (ethnic) parts won all 547 seats. More than 500 members of the main opposition party (Medreq) were arrested at polling stations in the Oromia region before and on election day. Today, Ethiopia is governed by a de facto dictatorship of one party, representing the interests of the leaders of the Tigran ethnicity. The political concept of ethnic federalism has failed to resolve the national question. For Amhara and national elites, ethnic federalism remained artificial and failed to accommodate grievances of the broad majority of the people.

The BTI combines text analysis and numerical assessments. The score for each question is provided below its respective title. The scale ranges from 1 (worst) to 10 (best).

Transformation Status

I. Political Transformation

Question
Score

1 | Stateness

Since November 2015, Ethiopia saw unprecedented levels of public anger and protest throughout the country, forcing the government to take the extraordinary measure of declaring a state of emergency. These protests were largely conducted in the Amhara and Oromia regions, two of the most populous ethno-national regions of the federation which make up close to 70% of Ethiopia’s 100 million people. The Amharas and Oromos are historical adversaries but there is a growing expression of solidarity during these protests. Together, these protests represented the greatest threat yet to the system dominated by minority Tigrean ethnic elites.

Despite these challenges, the state still retains a solid monopoly over the use of force. The few armed movements that operate both from within the country and neighboring Eritrea are not expected to represent a major challenge to the government’s monopoly over the use of force in the short term.

Monopoly on the use of force

Ethiopia is one of the most diverse nations in the world, with well over 80 different ethno-national groups with their own language. Most of these nations had a separate existence until they were forcibly brought under the Ethiopian state during the rule of Minilik II toward the end of the 19th century.

For most of the 20th century, the country embarked on a project of homogenizing and unifying the country under one language and one culture. This led to historic disagreements and marginalization of some groups in the country, particularly the Oromo, the largest ethnic group in the country.

Following the 1991 overthrow of the Mengistu regime, the country was restructured as a federal state to respond to the demands for autonomy and self-rule. Though a large measure of self-government and liberalization were enunciated in the constitution, the realities on the ground did not change much for most groups. Ethnic Tigrean elites, who purportedly represent the Tigrai people (about 6% of the country’s population), dominate the nation’s political, military, economic and security apparatus, leaving others to feel like second-class citizens in their own country. This group resorts to various strategies and techniques to justify its legitimacy and title to rule. Several ethnic tensions in the south-eastern Oromo areas demonstrate that the legitimacy of the nation-state is seriously questioned by some oppressed people.

This is one of the most significant challenges to the government’s legitimacy and the identity of the state as a truly federal and democratic state that respects and values its diverse population.

State identity
5

Until 1974, Orthodox Christianity was the official religion of the state. Until this period, religion provided perhaps the single most important organizing principle of political and social life in the country. The Solomonic dynasty, which ruled the country until 1974, justified its right to rule over the Ethiopian people by presenting itself as “the elect of God.”

Since 1974, the role of religion has declined significantly. The 1994 constitution affirmed its commitment to secularism by enshrining the separation of state and religion in very clear terms.

While religion plays no significant role in influencing the government’s policy decisions, the government interferes in religious institutions on a regular basis. In some cases, it controls these institutions by influencing the elections of religious leaders and appointing government sympathizers in key religious institutions. The recent confrontation with the Muslim community and the protests over the last three years resulted from a government plan to impose its preferred version of Islam on the country’s Muslim population. The government has increasingly harassed the Muslim community, which has grown to rival the Ethiopian Orthodox Church as the country’s largest religious group (44% of the total population in Ethiopia). Muslim groups accuse the EPRDF government of trying to impose the beliefs of an Islamic sect, Al-Ahbash, at the expense of the dominant Sufi-influenced strain of Islam. In 2015, more than 40 Muslim activists who demonstrated against the government’s involvement in their affairs were sentenced to prison terms of between seven and 22 years on “terrorism” charges.

No interference of religious dogmas

There are administrative structures at various levels throughout most of the country. There might be a few remote places where the government does not have elaborate administrative structures, but even in those places, there exist administrative units alongside security structures that enforce laws, collect taxes and bear responsibility for provisions of social services such as health, transportation, water, electricity, etc. The amount of population with access to clean drinking water is 57.3% (2015 World Bank data), and only 28% (2015 World Bank data) have access to improved sanitation facilities. But it bears noting that as one moves away from the capital city, Addis Ababa, outwards, the strength of these institutions and the quality of these services decreases considerably. In 2016, demonstrations took place in Oromia and Amhara against government institutions such as prisons, service centers and office buildings. The demonstrators have attacked prisons to free the inmates, ransacked public properties, not just offices, and vehicles, and also health centers and cooperatives. These places were seen as existing more to control the population than to perform their purported functions.

But beyond the existence of structures, there is no meaningful capacity to enact and implement policies at the local level. These are due authoritarian policies, corruption, inefficiency and lack of resources at all levels.

Basic administration

2 | Political Participation

The ruling EPRDF dominates the democratic public sphere. It controls democratic institutions such as the electoral board, parliament, and courts, while non-governmental institutions that are critical for the realization of a free and fair election, such as opposition parties, the media, and civil society organizations, were systematically repressed.

Since the opposition made significant gains in the 2005 national election, the government tightened its control over political spaces. In 2009, it enacted the Anti-Terrorism Proclamation and the Charities and Societies Proclamation which led to the deterioration of the human rights situation in the country. The Charities and Societies Proclamation was used to close down almost all human rights organizations in the country while the anti-terrorism law has been used against opposition groups, journalists and activists as a tool to maintain control over an increasingly defiant population.

This paved the way to the 2010 elections in which the government “won” all but one of the 547 seats. In 2015, the ruling party “won” 100% of the seats, despite being in power for the previous 25 years and increasing frustration among a majority of citizens. Regarding the elections for the 108-member House of Federation and the nine regional assemblies in 2015, no opposition candidate secured a seat.

The results of these elections were already predetermined since all the essential ingredients of a fair and competitive election, such as an independent electoral board, free media, and transparent electoral processes were systematically integrated into the executive branch of the government either through cooption or coercion.

Several prominent opposition leaders were jailed before the elections, including those of the Unity for Democracy and Justice Party. Four opposition party members were reportedly killed in the post-election months, and some 400 people were killed in the Oromo revolt against the government.

Free and fair elections

Given the architecture of the system and reach of the ruling party, it is impossible to speak of a democratically elected leader or representative in Ethiopia.

Until his death in 2012, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi had the sole power over all aspects of public life in Ethiopia. Meles Zenawi is a Tigrayan by ethnicity and was one of the leading members of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) which played a key role in overthrowing the government of Mengistu Hailemariam. Meles’s successor, Hailemariam Dessalegn, comes from a smaller ethnic group in the South, called Wolayta. Although he is far less powerful than his predecessor and his decisions are influenced by other players, mainly from the TPLF wing of the ruling EPRDF coalition, he cannot be said to be a democratically elected leader or representative.

In the post-election consolidation of the regime, Prime Minister Hailemariam Dessalegn, seen first as a transitional figure, was able to consolidate his position in government. In 2015, after a severe internal party grilling, he was reelected as leader of the party coalition (EPRDF) and as prime minister.

Like in all authoritarian states, legitimacy and representativeness have never been obstacles to the power to govern.

Effective power to govern

The constitution guarantees the freedom of assembly and expression in exactly the same terms as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Despite this, there are severe restrictions on the freedom of assembly, association and expression.

The ruling party’s legitimacy is extremely fragile and government often takes preemptive action to eliminate the possibility of street protest and organized movements that would further expose its questionable legitimacy.

According to the constitution, individuals, and groups who want to protest only need to inform the government, not seek permission. The government often declines permits for protests that are not pro-government. Whenever protests go ahead without permits, the government uses violent means and coercive tactics to crack down on protestors. During the Oromo and Amhara protests, security forces allegedly killed well over 1,000 people, with the government admitting the death of over 500 people.

The government has increasingly curtailed the freedom of expression and organization of politicians, journalists, NGOs and human rights organization, thus making Ethiopia a de facto dictatorship.

Association / assembly rights

The constitution guarantees the freedom of expression. However, the government does not tolerate dissenting views and regularly resorts to harassment, intimidation and malicious prosecution of journalists, musicians, artists and activists to eliminate them from the democratic public sphere.

The media law is extremely stifling and provides the legislative framework for the government to impose prohibitively excessive fines and in some cases prosecution under counter-terrorism laws and other broadly defined and politically motivated “crimes against the state.” This led to a so-called culture of censorship, making Ethiopia fourth on the global list of “most censored” countries drawn up by the Committee to Protect Journalists, with 17 journalists in jail, others forced into exile, and court cases ongoing against several bloggers.

According to Freedom House’s Index, Ethiopia’s freedom status is categorized as “not free.” In 2016, the country’s political rights ratings improved slightly from seven to six.

Press and media freedoms continued to suffer, with no real independent opinions allowed to flourish. The country’s press freedom status and internet freedom status are “not free,” according to the Freedom House Index. By a repressive police apparatus internet, telephone and e-mail traffic were seriously monitored leading to arrests of many bloggers and independent journalists. Social media sites were often closed. Free speech was restricted through a widespread network of paid informants and an extensive phone tapping system, even in the private sphere.

In conclusion, political freedoms further declined on all indexes, with the Freedom House Index again rating Ethiopia “not free,” with civil liberties and political rights a low six on a scale of seven.

Freedom of expression

3 | Rule of Law

The constitution provides for a parliamentary system with strong executive under a prime minister and an independent judiciary. Parliament is the highest political organ in the country. While there is a de jure separation of power, there is no check and balance between the three government institutions. Parliament and the judiciary are not independent institutions that can use their constitutional authority to hold the executive accountable. The executive uses various ways of controlling or coercing parliamentarians and the judiciary to ensure the harmonization of judicial and legislative decisions with the government’s anti-democratic and repressive policies.

Separation of powers

The constitution provides for an independent judiciary with the authority to interpret and apply the laws of the land. However, the Ethiopian judiciary does not have the authority to interpret the constitution or review the constitutionality of laws and other acts of the government. This authority is given to the House of Federation, a political body, with the advice of the Council of Constitutional Inquiry. If the Court believes that the case before it raises constitutional interpretation, it shall refer the matter directly to the House of Federation or the Council of Constitutional Inquiry. This has had a significant impact on the judicial enforcement of constitutionally protected rights.

Corruption within the judicial branch is not seen as a major problem. The problem is more severe at the local level but this is rarely reported.

The judicial branch is administered by a Judicial Administration Commission at both the state and federal level. Although theoretically independent, the commission is constituted of individuals loyal to the ruling party. The commission is one of the key ways through which the executive branch ensures control of the judiciary. Judicial appointment is often made on the basis of loyalty to the government and individual judges are assigned to cases involving the government on the basis of strategic consideration. They often ensure that judicial decisions are consistent with the policy of the government, even if that means contravening the rule of law and the constitution.

The Ethiopian judiciary lacks both a structural and functional independence. Despite the lack of resources and qualified judges responsible for dwarfing the institution’s ability to ensure a fair, impartial and expeditious administration of justice, government’s undue intervention in the administration of justice is a severe problem.

This is usually the case in politically motivated show trials which have become common in Ethiopia. In these cases, the government uses judges to rubberstamp its unconstitutional and repressive policies with the imprimatur of the court.

The independence of the judiciary is heavily impaired by political authorities and high levels of corruption. Its judgments rarely deviate from government policy. Human rights groups accuse the judiciary of not preventing torture in prisons which is forbidden by law. In general, there are a lot of functional deficits, because of the great discrepancy between law and law enforcement. Corruption among judges is widespread, and judges not loyal to the government run the risk of getting replaced by a “more suitable” candidate.

Independent judiciary

Public officials are very rarely held accountability for abuse of power. The only instance in which public officials are prosecuted is if there is a political motive to do so. There are many instances of prosecutions of high-ranking government officials but those individuals would not have been prosecuted had it not been for a political fallout with the powers that be.

In response to a very critical study on corruption in Ethiopia by the World Bank in 2014, the government established the Federal Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (FEACC) which was responsible for a string of high-profile arrests of prominent officials and businessmen throughout the year 2015.

Prosecution of office abuse

The human rights landscape in the country is extremely worrying, with a significant year-on-year deterioration over the last decade.

While the constitution entrenches one of the most vibrant sets of human and democratic rights, the practice is radically different from the normative pronouncements.

The abuses of human rights are most visible where human rights protections are most needed. While individuals can live without violence and harassment if they accept the rules of the game and work for the system, those who question government policies and take steps to change it, face various abuses ranging from the risk of torture and extra-judicial killings to indefinite detentions and enforced disappearances.

The presence of the EPRDF at all levels of society – directly and, increasingly, electronically – inhibits free private discussion. Many people are wary of speaking against the government. The EPRDF maintains a network of paid informants, and opposition politicians have accused the government of tapping their phones.

Civil rights and individual liberties are systematically violated, because the judiciary and other national human rights institutions are controlled by the ruling party. There is no independent institution that can ensure the protection and observance of human rights by policy, ministries or party officials. Especially when land questions and property cases are at stake, peasants and other citizens without a membership card of the ruling party coalition will have little chance to get their rights respected by representatives of the state.

Civil rights

4 | Stability of Democratic Institutions

Ethiopia is constitutionally a federal parliamentary democracy. Government power is separated into legislative, administrative and judicial functions both at the state and federal levels. The constitution also envisions a measure of self-government at the local level.

While there are democratic institutions similar in architecture to those that exist within actually functioning democracies, these institutions are undermined by the influence and dominance of the ruling party at all levels of government.

The ruling party is authoritarian in its character and publicly promotes the idea of a one-party dominant state. Democratic institutions are created to provide a semblance of democracy but, in reality, they are instruments at the service of the ruling elites. The Ethiopian judiciary provides an excellent example here. While the principles of independence and impartiality are the defining attributes of a judicial organ, Ethiopian courts have proven themselves over and over again to be instruments in the service of repressive politics. When the government rounded up opposition political party members, journalists, activists and public intellectuals, and subjected them to trumped-up charges, the courts colluded with the state to hand down a verdict acceptable to the government.

Indeed, the Ethiopian judiciary played a central role in rationalizing and justifying the government’s authoritarian tendencies by affixing it with an imprimatur of judicial reasoning. The same can be said about other democratic institutions such as the National Electoral Board, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, the Council for Constitutional Inquiry, the House of Federation, and so forth.

The federal government also has strong control and direction over the military. Although not intended, the authoritarian style of the repressive government at the center of the state fueled centrifugal trends in the regions. Government attempts to coopt the regional political parties into EPRDF allies have stimulated resistance and nationalism in the Oromia and Ogaden regions.

The results of the parliamentary elections in 2015 had little credibility and effectively made the political process, let alone “democracy,” in Ethiopia irrelevant. The ruling party positioned itself in a position of “perpetual” power, because it showed little inclination to engage in any national dialogue with other political parties or civil society groups about policy alternatives.

Performance of democratic institutions

Democratic institutions in Ethiopia are largely regarded as partisan political institutions designed to serve the goal of legitimating the ruling party and its elites.

While the government presents these institutions as constitutionally mandated and authorized institutions, the opposition and the larger public views them as mirages of democratic institutions designed to legitimize an otherwise illegitimate government.

The present government has obviously lost confidence in liberal democracy and the system of checks and balances. “Development” (in the sense of permanently high economic growth) is much more appreciated by the political elite than “democracy.” De facto Ethiopia developed into a “facade democracy” that is in essence a dictatorship by one ruling group, dominated by an ethnic minority of Tigran origin. If the Ethiopian government allowed free and fair elections it would definitely lose power by failing to achieve a majority of votes. That is Ethiopia’s democracy dilemma.

Commitment to democratic institutions

5 | Political and Social Integration

The ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is a coalition of ethnic-based parties with unequal power. The Tigray Peoples Liberation Front, the oldest and most powerful member of the party, is responsible for creating and shaping the other parties. Indeed, the other parties representing major ethnic groups in the country such as the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization (OPDO) and the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) are not considered as movements born out of the struggles of the people they purportedly represent. Instead of serving the interest of their people, they are considered servants of the TPLF among the Oromos and the Amharas.

While these parties have very solid control over the population in their respective regions, this is a control solely based on violence and other repressive tactics. To that extent, neither the ruling coalition nor its constituent members can be said to have institutional stability and a social base. Without the monopoly over violence and the repressive measures that are available to the government to ensure control, the party would not have any other legitimate and democratic support within the population. One can maintain, however, that some portions of the elder generation, especially in Tigray province, would admit that the TPLF – as the main military force responsible for the downfall of dictator Mengistu in 1991 – are right to proclaim political legitimacy through military victory.

The political sphere in Ethiopia is still under the hegemony of the ruling party coalition EPRDF and shall remain so in the near future, also deep tensions exist within the EPRDF between the four components (the Tigray, Amhara, Oromo and Southern Ethiopia people). Faced with increasing social unrest and ethnic conflicts, maintaining political stability for a system which has existed since 1991 will become more challenging for the unpopular government.

Clientelism is a major problem in Ethiopia. Major players in the economy have a close relationship with the ruling party. There is either an implicit or explicit quid pro quo between these forces wherein major players in the economy provide support of various types to the ruling party in return for a favor by the party.

Party system

Like many authoritarian states, cooperative associations and interest groups are allowed to exist insofar as they do not challenge the legitimacy or authority of the government. They are required to refrain from anything that calls the ruling party, its authority, and legitimacy into question.

Most of these associations and interest groups are aligned with the ruling party. To the extent that associations and interest groups that espouse ideas and policies different from the ruling party are allowed to exist, this is simply to enhance the legitimacy of the system. These organizations will be monitored very closely including using means and methods that are unconstitutional.

Because the existence of these interest groups is based solely on the will of the ruling party, these organizations cannot challenge or contest the policies and decisions of the ruling party to advance their interests. Even when the ruling party encroaches upon their constitutional rights, these organizations do not resort to public criticism and litigation to bring those abusive practices to an end.

There is no visible cooperation between these groups. They operate within their own social and political spheres with little to no cooperation. This is mainly because the way interests are advanced is by working with the ruling party and the government, within the terms set by the later as opposed to constitutional rules and principles. It is better to resort to administrative solutions than judicial solutions for example.

In a federal country with ninety individual languages, with powerful churches, a growing urban middle class and hundreds of thousands of refugees from neighboring countries, it is obvious that the interests of these diverse people are reflected in various institutions of representation. But the degree of their institutional and political autonomy is rather small and even deteriorated during the last decade.

Interest groups

Ethiopia is a fiercely authoritarian state and democratic performance cannot be assessed.

Approval of democracy
n/a 

There are what are called self-help organizations, such as Idir and Iqub, often established at the local level to deal with economic and social matters such as death and savings. These organizations exist throughout the country and provide a safety net system for local populations. They are underpinned by principles of solidarity and neighborliness among and between citizens. At this level, there is a fairly good level of trust between populations, especially among ethnically and religiously homogenous societies.

There are other forms of associations that are established to advance the interests of specific ethnic groups. Unlike Idir and Iqub, these organizations tend to be political in nature. They fight the marginalization and exclusion of their respective groups through the promotion of cultural and economic welfare for their respective societies.

There are also mega-development organizations that are affiliated with political parties. Some of these are extremely powerful monopolies that dominate the country’s economy. This is further feeding into the rising tension that has already been simmering between groups that dominate the country’s public life and those pushed to the margins of politics.

Social capital
3

II. Economic Transformation

6 | Level of Socioeconomic Development

Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world. With a population of over 100 million, its GDP stands at $61.54 billion. According to the 2015 World Bank Group report titled Ethiopia Poverty Assessment 2014, the number of people who live in poverty has fallen to 30%. The report further recognized that while Ethiopia has registered rapid economic progress, it also notes that, “structural change has been remarkably absent.”

Ethiopia pursues a model of the developmental state, based on the Chinese system, although there are considerable differences between the two nations. Its leaders believe that there is no link between economic growth and democracy. While Ethiopia has made significant economic strides, the economic potential of the country has not been fully realized as a result of the government’s restrictive and repressive instincts. Government inefficiency, corruption, and mismanagement are not called to account in public.

There is no media and autonomous democratic institutions able to scrutinize the appropriateness of government economic policies and whether specific economic programs and projects are the best possible deals for the local or the general population. Individuals directly affected by specific economic policies and programs have no recourse to justice, nor are there ways of bringing public pressure to bear on the government.

These structural bottlenecks are arbitrary. In many ways, these arbitrary red tape and bottlenecks are reflections of the political domination of Tigrayan elites. Favoritism, patronage and cronyism run deep in the socioeconomic system of the country. Patterns of wealth creation and economic progress in the country reflect the patterns of political power. Ethnic identity is clearly a marker of both economic and political exclusions.

Growth in the country is uneven across regions, ethnicities and gender. The distribution of family income (Gini Index) is at 33.6 (World Bank, 2013) while the Gender Inequality Index value is at 0.558 (UNDP 2014). According to UNDP’s 2015 Report, Ethiopia ranked 173 out of 186 countries in the latest UNDP Human Development Report. However, it is also one of “the 10 countries globally that has attained the largest absolute gains in its HDI over the last several years.”

Although the economy is increasing by 8% to 10 % annually, the great majority of the people are excluded from the boom. The government’s growth strategy is not based on the mobilization of the potential of millions of poor peasants and their families. Rather, it relies on few foreign big company investments. The brutal logic behind this policy can be summarized as follows: what is needed is the land of the peasants, not their labor.

Socioeconomic barriers
2

 

 

Economic indicators

2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP

$ M

47648.2 55612.2 64464.4 72374.3

GDP growth

%

10.6 10.3 10.4 7.6

Inflation (CPI)

%

8.1 7.4 10.1 7.3

Unemployment

%

5.0 5.0 5.3 5.7

Foreign direct investment

% of GDP

2.0 3.8 3.4 4.4

Export growth

%

0.3 2.8 -11.2 -8.1

Import growth

%

4.2 20.2 21.9 0.0

Current account balance

$ M

-2998.6 -5727.0 -7511.1 -8269.4

Public debt

% of GDP

42.4 46.3 60.0 57.9

External debt

$ M

12575.1 16328.0 20139.8 23063.0

Total debt service

$ M

664.2 764.9 1042.1 1243.6

Net lending/borrowing

% of GDP

Tax revenue

% of GDP

Government consumption

% of GDP

9.0 9.2 9.0 9.7

Public education spending

% of GDP

4.5

Public health spending

% of GDP

3.0 2.9

R&D expenditure

% of GDP

0.6

Military expenditure

% of GDP

0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7


Sources (as of October 2017): The World Bank, World Development Indicators | International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook | Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Military Expenditure Database.

7 | Organization of the Market and Competition

The Ethiopian economy is still highly regulated and markets forces are not driven by macro and micro-economic considerations. The ruling party and its businesses play a significant part in the country’s economy and although there are rudimentary normative and institutional frameworks aimed at guaranteeing market competition and equality of access for all market participants, the reality is different.

Members of the ruling parties enjoyed unfair privileges in access to credit, land lease contracts and jobs due to nepotism and every corruption. The absence of the rule of law and independent financial and democratic institutions means that the law as such is not a guarantor of investment. Whatever rules were put in place to govern markets and investment, they are often unreliable and subject to arbitrary and significant state intervention. As a result, the informal sector is large in some areas. For example, the foreign exchange business is an area where the informal sector thrives. These are operated not only from within Ethiopia, but also from outside the country.

Another important consideration is that there are sectors of the economy such as banking, insurance, telecom, and electricity that are seen by the government as strategically important and still closed to foreign competition, while some remained in government hands. The decision to retain control over these sectors is not purely economic. It is largely driven by political calculations of the ruling party.

Market-based competition

Although there are competition laws aimed at ensuring consumer protection and the competitiveness of markets, these laws are not enforced in practice. The existing regulatory frameworks against monopolistic and cartelistic structures are far from comprehensive and even the rules that exist are ignored by enforcement agencies because of the close relationship between the state and some of the monopolistic companies. As a result of the considerable role of the state in the economy and mega businesses affiliated with the ruling party, the law plays a very minimal role in regulating the markets or settling business related disputes.

Anti-monopoly policy

Foreign trade is controlled by the state and is yet to be liberalized in law and practice. Although the country has taken some steps toward liberalization, the state still remained the primary economic actor and closely monitors all types of foreign trade.

The country started the process of joining the WTO over a decade ago and it has not made significant progress. As a result, it still maintains various types of conditions, including tariff measures, for market access. Import and export licensing as well as customs valuations are arbitrary, and they are the primary means through which those who are not a member of the politically dominant ethnic group or are not affiliated with the ruling party are excluded from economic activities and investment opportunities.

The government still maintains restrictions on imports of certain capital and non-capital goods to protect local producers and sectors which could not compete with foreign companies with significant capital and access to financing.

Another important consideration is the alternative market access the country has. The tariff-free arrangements to the European Union and the United States through the EBA (Everything but Arms) and AGOA (African Growth Opportunity Act) respectively, has opened up important markets to Ethiopian imports. These market arrangements, while they had an important impact on the economic improvements of the last decade, had the effect of dis-incentivizing the country from opening itself up. The country has not used these market opportunities sufficiently, and it saw no justification at this moment for it to open itself up to competition when it has not yet utilized markets that come with literally no strings attached.

Liberalization of foreign trade

The banking sector is still highly regulated and is off limits to foreign trade.

The minimum capital-adequacy ratio for Ethiopian banks is 10.4%. All Ethiopian commercial banks are committed to a minimum 8% of capital-adequacy ratio that is set by the World Bank and the Basel Committee.

There is, however, a higher proportion of nonperforming loans across the banking system with frequent shortages of foreign currency, with the closure of the banking sector to foreign capital, poor enforcement of rules on disclosures and the politicization of financial regulators.

There is no capital market in Ethiopia as of yet. The conditions necessary for capital markets such as the existence of private firms free of government influence with rights to buy and sell shares, own land and houses, etc. are not present. However, the government has been holding a consultation on this issue and received advice from the World Bank and the IMF on developing a secondary debt market. The direction of travel seems to be toward opening up a capital market but it is not clear whether this will develop into a policy and a legal framework that would eventually open the country up for capital markets.

Banking system

8 | Currency and Price Stability

The government and the central bank of Ethiopia do pursue policies intended to control inflation and currency exchange rates. However, these policies are always subordinated to other political considerations and the figures are manipulated to set forth a narrative that is consistent with the government’s claims of economic development and lifting the population out of poverty.

Although the government tries to control inflation and forex regime, the government lacks institutional and policy commitment to realize this goal. The broader policy of economic domination of one ethnic group means that institutions should be denied autonomy and independence. These institutions could not implement policies and laws against key economic actors that dominate the forex sector (both formally and informally) and contribute to the rise of inflation. According to World Bank data, the GDP for 2015 is 9.6% while inflation rose from 7.4% in 2014 to 10.1% in 2015.

During the IMF Article IV consultation in September 2015 the IMF resulted in warnings of too high inflation and high borrowing by public enterprises with attendant risks of external debt distress. They also advised the government to take decisive action to strengthen the business climate and enhance external competitiveness.

Anti-inflation / forex policy

The government does not have coherent fiscal and debt policies crucial for providing macroeconomic stability and does not seem to exercise prudence in its financial management. Its debt reduction and fiscal consolidation policies are inconsistent and contradictory as to reduce vulnerability.

There are several factors that play into this, but key among these are the absence of institutional safeguards, party-affiliated monopolies and the link between government legitimacy and economic growth.

The country’s public sector debt was 42.1% in 2014 and projected to be 61.2% in 2017. External debt was 25.5% in 2014 and is projected to be 35.0% in 2017. Both foreign and internal public debt shows an increasing tendency. External debt increased from 27% of GNP in 2013 to 30% of GNP in 2014.

Macrostability

9 | Private Property

The constitution recognizes private property but the right to acquire, use and transfer property can be limited for public use. Land policy is one of the most debated and controversial issues in Ethiopia from a market economy point of view.

The constitution declares land to be the “inalienable common property of the nations, nationalities and peoples of Ethiopia.” Land and any property on the land can be taken by the government for public use, which includes leasing the land for private investment, on the payment of compensation deemed appropriate by the state. The compensation is only for the value of the property on the land or investment made on the land and not the overall value of the investment.

In conjunction with the authoritarian tendencies of the government and the absence of the rule of law, the constitutionally guaranteed right to private property can easily be abused and violated.

While private property rights, with the exception of land, are protected, there is no credible and strong legal framework that ensures the effective exercise of these rights.

Private business opportunities are limited by rigid state control of economic life and the prevalence of state-owned enterprises. All land must be leased from the state. In 2014, up to 70,000 people were forced to move from the western Gambella region, although the government denies the resettlement plans are connected to land investments.

Property rights

The government encourages private companies to engage in development activities consistent with its developmental policies. Although there is recognition on the part of the government that private companies play an important role, there is a huge concentration of market power in the hands of party-affiliated companies and public enterprises.

The process of privatization, underway since the early 1990s, was not consistent with market principles and is heavily influenced by political considerations.

Private enterprise

10 | Welfare Regime

There is no comprehensive national social safety scheme in Ethiopia. There are, however, occasional safety net arrangements that are put in place to prevent food shortage brought about by drought and unexpected weather conditions from escalating into famine.

In 2015 and 2016, a major drought severely impacted food production and put about five million rural people into dangerous, food-insecure conditions. According to UNICEF, the total number of people affected by drought and famine was 10.2 million, of whom 5.7 million were children. Food, clean water and medical treatment had to be provided as aid. The government is said to have itself allocated $192 million to combat the crisis, expecting the bulk of aid from foreign countries. The percentage of people suffering from poverty (defined as $1.25 a day purchasing power) fell by 2% to 3%, and was reported to be 29.5% of the total population or roughly 30 million people. The public expenditure on health is 2.9% (% of GDP) which is only at the average.

At the local level, there are two widely prevalent community safety net systems: Idir and Iqub. Idir is designed to share the burden of grief and burial and is not oriented toward creating a pathway to struggling families to provide basic social necessities. Iqub, on the other hand, is a money saving scheme used by local people either to save money for a rainy day or for investment. It is a traditional system designed to offset the problems of not being able to get loans before the introduction of banking in Ethiopia and is still a thriving safety net system throughout the country.

Social safety nets

There are widespread practices of discrimination, subordination, and outright exclusion on the basis of gender, ethnicity and political preferences. Although not overt and rampant, individuals are also subject to discrimination based on religious beliefs.

Discrimination based on political outlook is the most rampant. For example, university graduates are expected to be card-carrying members of the ruling EPRDF coalition if they are to be considered for a job in the public sector. As the government is the largest employer in the country, individuals are compelled to carry membership cards to avoid discrimination.

People are also discriminated against based on their ethnicity both by both public and private enterprises. Indeed, the very architecture of the political system in Ethiopia makes it difficult for citizens to access opportunities equally as regional states are established on the basis of ethnic considerations.

The Ethiopian culture is still very male-oriented, and women are considered to belong to the household. Women do not enjoy equality of opportunities with men in terms of access to education, holding public office, employment and visibility in the public sphere.

The literacy rate for men stands at 49% (2007-2013) and for women at 29%, indicating great gender inequality and social injustice.

Equal opportunity

11 | Economic Performance

Ethiopia registered a double-digit economic growth for over a decade. Tax revenue (13.5% for 2015/16) and investment have been consistently growing. However, despite the relatively high GDP which was growing at around 10.2% for over a decade, other macroeconomic indicators such as unemployment, price stability, money supply, the balance of payment and public debt are not at sustainable levels. More than 800 agrarian projects are financed by foreign investors, which caused severe social unrest among peasants who had lost access to land. Public ownership of all land is regarded as the most severe hindrance to an improvement of agricultural production.

According to the IMF data for 2015 to 2016, inflation stands at 6%, unemployment in urban areas is 16.5%, public and publicly guaranteed debt stands at 54.2% of which 24.0% is internal, while 30.2% is external. External current account deficit is estimated at 10.7% of GDP.

The economic growth for this year is estimated to be only 4.4% to 6.5%. This is partly due to the drought that affected agricultural production and the year-long Oromo protests that resulted in massive capital flight as a result of political uncertainty. It is also worth noting that Ethiopia’s economic growth and the data put out by the government have been called into question by opposition parties and independent economic experts.

The World Bank considers that poverty had been 33% reduced in the last decade (2015-2005), even if the Bank estimated that 37 million Ethiopians remain poor or vulnerable in falling into poverty. This contrasted with other sources that ranked the country among the poorest in the world. The HDI ranks Ethiopia 174 out of 185 countries in the world (2014). According to the World Development Indicators for 2015, the GDP per capita (PPP) increased since 2005 from 653 to $1,626 in 2015; and since 2012 from $1,257 to $1,377 (2013), to $1,505 (2014).

Output strength

12 | Sustainability

The government’s primary focus is economic growth. This is not simply because economic growth is a good thing for the general welfare of society, but also because the government’s own legitimacy depends on delivering rapid economic growth and lifting citizens out of poverty.

Environmental impact assessments are not seriously undertaken for almost all major development projects, whether it be hydropower generation or mechanized agriculture. Indeed, during the Gilgel Gibe Dam construction, the government violated its own environmental protection laws and procurement practices.

Gilgel Gibe III was constructed on the Omo River, a “lifeline for hundreds of thousands of indigenous farmers, herders and fishermen” who depend on its waters to sustain themselves. NGOs and activists argue that the government published environmental impact assessments long after construction began and “disregarded the project’s most serious impact” on the ecosystems and the vulnerable indigenous group who live in the area.

In sum, environmental concerns are rarely taken into account in determining development programs and policies. In the transformation process of subsistence farming into commercial economy, environmental issues often are neglected, such as the availability of water for households and farming. The groundwater levels of several lakes south of Addis Ababa have been decreasing for years due to commercial flower production for export markets.

Environmental policy

Ethiopia has been able to expand education and literacy at all levels. Access to primary education has risen by about 500% over the last 20 years. The number of children in schools has gone from 3.5 in 1990 to about 16 million.

According to World Bank data, adult male literacy increased from 41.93% in 2005 to 57.2% in 2015. Adult female literacy increased from 17.9% in 2005 to 40.9% in 2015. Youth male literacy increased from 44.6% in 2005 to 69.6% in 2015. Female literacy increased from 33.3% in 2005 to 67.82% in 2015.

While there is a tremendous increase at the primary level, the number of students that go on to enroll in secondary education has fallen by 20%. Moreover, the increase in access to education came with a significant deterioration of quality in education at all levels.

The government also expanded tertiary education, increasing the number of universities and their in-take capacity from a few thousand to well over a 100,000 students in a span of 20 years. Despite the encouraging progress regarding access, the quality of education at university level is considerably worse than it was two decades ago.

Public universities are funded by the state. The salary paid to university lecturers and professors is one of the lowest in the world. Research and development funding has increased from 0.18% to 0.6% in 2013, according to available data.

Education policy / R&D

Governance

 

I. Level of Difficulty

There are structural difficulties that constrain the leadership’s ability to provide social services and improve the living standards of the population, but the primary structural constraint in Ethiopia today relates to the crisis of political legitimacy and the threats represented by pro-democratic and other critical voices to the continued authority of the government. The government has been in power for the last 26 years and neither extreme poverty and lack of labor, nor nonexistent infrastructure for development, has affected its ability to govern as much as its lack of a democratic mandate to govern.

While poverty, the absence of educated labor and functional infrastructure, periodic drought, etc. have represented a challenge in effecting sustainable structural transformation, they are not the central and most immediate problems for effective governance of the country. Authoritarianism and the government’s disdain for educated and critical voices are the central impediments for bringing about sustainable structural changes. If the government opened up the system and relied on its best and brightest, with policies developed and scrutinized by the wider public, some of the challenges facing the country could have been averted. The authoritarian nature of the government and its development policies generate their own crisis. As a country that started from a good baseline with significant economic potential, a more open and accountable government could have achieved a sustainable structural transformation better than the current government.

Structural constraints

Ethiopia has always been an authoritarian state, and a culture of public exchange, debate and contestation are very rare. The cultural conditions that sustain democratic institutions and vibrant civil society were virtually nonexistent.

With the adoption of the current constitution 25 years ago and the rise of the human rights movement and other forms of social movements around the world, there was a huge appetite for civil society organizations in Ethiopia. Although the government allowed several organizations to operate in its first two decades, the government grew increasingly intolerant of civil society since the 2005 election. In 2009, the government enacted the Charities and Societies Proclamation (2009) which effectively decimated the few civil society organizations that operated in the country.

While there are certain traditional institutions that have the form and appearance of a civic organization, their activities are limited to basic economic and social domain. Religious organizations such as the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and its nationwide branches, the Islamic Supreme Council and its affiliated mosques and schools, the Pentecostal church and other churches are allowed to operate.

Civil society traditions

Ethiopia is one of the most diverse nations in the world. Society is highly divided along ethnic lines. Indeed, ethnicity is the primary principle of political organizing and mobilization as political parties are organized along ethnic lines and member states of the federation are ethno-national groups.

The level of rivalry and hatred between the major ethnic groups, the Oromos, the Amharas and the Tigrayans, has been intense. Simmering resentment, underground for the last three decades and more, exploded into the open during the 2015-2016 Oromo protests, exposing the level of ethnic tension that is submerged by the sheer force of state violence. Cultural and ethnic intolerance gained weight, often provoked by turmoil in neighboring countries.

In recent years religion also became a source of intense and often violent conflict between various religious communities and the government, and to a lesser extent between the followers of different religion. The Muslim community has been protesting for about three years between 2012 and 2015 against alleged government interference in their religion and forced indoctrination of the Muslim community. There were also reports of religious conflicts between Muslims and Christians in some parts of the country where individuals belonging to these religious attacked mosques and churches. In some cases, there were unconfirmed reports of a massacre.

Conflict intensity

II. Governance Performance

14 | Steering Capability

The government talks about long-term strategic interests and priorities of the country, but there is nothing to suggest that the government’s political, social, economic, military or environmental policies were driven by evidence. The government chooses loyalty and conformity over competence and expertise.

Most decisions are taken on the basis of political implications for the ruling party – in other words, the extent to which a given program and policy will enhance its legitimacy and helps avoid a crisis that would threaten its immediate interests.

The executive branch is the most powerful, and the cabinet and the civil service is subordinate to the ruling party. While there may be some progressive individuals both within the cabinet and the top ranks of the civil service, these are not reflected on important policy matters. If there is a conflict between the interest of the party and the country, the interest of the party will be given priority. If, however, the interest of the country aligns with the interest of the party, and there are not considerable risks to the latter, the government does pursue long-term goals. Government efforts around energy can be seen as one such strategic priority. But the key constraint that prevented the government from setting strategic priorities is its authoritarian character.

Prioritization
The government adopts policies from time to time on a range of issues including investment, poverty, health, education, defense, justice, human rights and democracy. Although publicly available policies are often in line with the constitution and other internationally accepted norms and standards which have become part of Ethiopian law, the practice is often different, especially when it comes to democratization and human rights.

The government is relatively more effective in implementing its economic strategies. There has been encouraging improvements in the areas of export promotion, land investment schemes, energy production and infrastructure projects such as dams, roads and railways.

The authoritarian nature of the government means that policies are not implemented within proper legal frameworks and accountability structures. Laws and policies set by the government are often dispensed with when it is expedient to do so.

There might be elements within the cabinet interested in implementing policies in line with the constitution and other accepted norms of international law, but these are overshadowed by the few powerful elements within the party whose priority is to defend the status quo rather than ensuring an outcome that is legitimate, inclusive and fair.

Implementation

Political expediency is the most important rule guiding the government’s decisions. Policies are decided upon in terms of their implications for sustaining and consolidating the status quo.

The government might be viewed as flexible since it is not subject to the rule of law and legal and administrative challenges, but expediency is not the same as flexibility.

The government might learn from mistakes but those mistakes are rarely discussed in public and it is not clear whether lessons have been drawn from those experiences. Even if this was the case, the public would not have knowledge of why certain policies failed and what lessons have been learned. There is simply no institutional mechanism that serves as a hub for innovation and facilitates the conditions for flexible but rule and evidence-based policy-making.

Government’s insistence on its ideologically-based fatal land policy is a good indicator of non-learning. The systematic lack of land property rights for farmers and the restriction of a smallholder sector block local agrarian entrepreneurship and the modernization of the traditional agro-pastoral production systems.

The inflexible attitude of the government in its relations with Egyptian authorities concerning the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam on the Nile can be taken as another example of the limited capacity for flexibility.

Policy learning

15 | Resource Efficiency

There is a high degree of mismanagement and waste resulting from a range of problems including cultural constraints.

One of the key problem of mismanagement and inefficiency results from the fact that individuals are appointed to important positions of power that require particular expertise simply because they are loyal to the government and are trusted by the ruling elites. Almost every senior level appointment is politically influenced, effecting creating creeping cronyism and patronage throughout the system. One of the weaknesses of the government is its inability to draw on the best and brightest the country has produced because they are seen as politically hostile.

Overall, the government wastes a considerable amount of its resources, particularly human and natural resources.

Efficient use of assets

The declared objectives of the Ethiopian government are similar to policy objectives of democratic governments anywhere. It has grand policies on ensuring the safety and security of the population, economic development, human rights and democracy, sustainable environment, regional integration and social cohesion to name a few. However, all these grand pronouncements are undercut methodically by other more immediate concerns of preserving the power of the ruling party.

Like other authoritarian systems, in Ethiopia the rhetoric of democracy, constitutionalism and the rule of law play a crucial role. For example, the persistent use of the judicial system and the Ethiopian Human Rights commission, both subordinate to the executive branch, to legitimize repressive policies had the effect of perverting institutions of justice. In this case, an institution that has the objective of finding the truth and delivering justice is being mobilized to achieve a radically different end.

Rather than being the dictate of competing interests or a real trade-off between publicly justifiable policy goals, this is a situation in which publicly declared policies are deliberately undermined by the ruling party to enhance its legitimacy.

Although Ethiopia is a federal system with a national capital and nine regional centers (governments and parliaments), most of the important decisions regarding the allocation of financial resources, foreign aid transfers included, are made in the capital. There is a level of horizontal coordination between some member states of the federation but this is lower than one would have expected. Most of the regions often experience some form of conflict as a result of conflicts over boundaries and grazing land, and the federal government does not have a robust conflict management or conflict resolution mechanism in place.

The existence of competing political factions within TPLF and among factions of the coalition government EPRDF is becoming increasingly visible, but up to now the cohesion of state policy does not seem to be challenged.

Policy coordination
4

Ethiopia has one of the fastest growing economies in the world but it still remained one of the poorest countries on the planet. Corruption poses a serious and multifaceted problem to the overall wellbeing of the population and its economy.

Ethiopia ranked 111 out of 177 countries in 2013, 110 out of 175 countries in 2014, and nine on the top ten African countries with high illicit financial flows (from 1970 to 2008).

Ethiopia’s Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission is established to provide an institutional mechanism to fight corruption and enforce anti-corruption laws against everyone. While this body has prosecuted a handful of individuals, including high-ranking government officials, its integrity as an institution of truth-seeking and justice has been seriously compromised. The high-ranking officials prosecuted by this body were victims of a political witch hunt by the regime. Scrutiny and accountability has never reached the higher echelons of officialdom.

So, while there is a problem of capacity to control corruption at all levels, there is very little political will and legal commitment to hold accountable powerful actors implicated in corruption and those who facilitated massive capital flight. According to Global Financial Intelligence, Ethiopia lost $26 billion to illicit financial outflows between 2004 and 2013.

Anti-corruption policy

16 | Consensus-Building

The ruling party claims to be committed to entrenching democratic ideals and bringing about economic development based on the principles of developmental democracy. Opposition parties, civil society groups and other influential actors point to the government’s practices over the last 25 years as conclusive evidence of the government’s unwillingness to pursue democratic reforms and open up the political space.On market economy, the government and opposition parties do not see eye to eye. Most of the opposition seems to be committed to certain ideas of market economy within the rule of law, while the government pursues a developmental state policy that denies the existence of any link between economic development and democratic imperatives. The major political actors pursue “guided capitalist development,” along with the Chinese model.

Consensus on goals

The few reformist elements in the ruling party and the opposition are too weak and insignificant to overcome anti-democratic practices. The ruling party controls 100% of seats in the federal parliament and regional councils. Outside of parliament, the political space has shrunk to extinction. Neither the opposition nor reformist elements within the ruling party, if any, have the means and the will to overcome anti-democratic actors.

Anti-democratic actors

The ruling party has been able to manage the cleavages that exists within and among the various ethnic groups within the ruling party. Indeed, the party used the historical antagonism between the various ethnic groups, particularly the Oromos and Amharas, as a useful political weapon to legitimize the rule of the minority Tigrayan ethnic elites who purportedly represent the Tigray people, representing about 6% of the country’s population. When Oromos and Amharas, who make up nearly 70% of the country’s 100 million people see each other as adversaries and could not agree on any political vision, the TPLF-led EPRDF coalition becomes the lesser of the two evils for both societies. The Oromo and Amhara protests are evidence of long simmering ethnic tension.

Instead of depolarizing ethnic tensions, the government sometimes instigates and exacerbates some of the conflicts precisely because the narratives that underpin its legitimacy can easily be enhanced or undermined by relations between other ethnic groups.

Cleavage / conflict management

The government has worked tirelessly to eliminate civil society organizations. In 2009, it adopted the Charities and Societies Proclamation which led to the decimation of civil society organizations.

The proclamation requires human rights organizations to register in one of the following three categories: Ethiopian Charities, Ethiopian Resident Charities or Foreign Charities. According to the law, only Ethiopian Charities may work on the advancement of human and democratic rights. Foreign charities with the experience and resources to do rigorous human rights reporting and advocacy are completely banned. An Ethiopian Charity that receives more than 10% of its funding from foreign sources is considered a foreign charity and therefore not eligible for human rights work, resulting in the complete decimation of human rights organizations and the exacerbation of the climate of fear and intimidation.

In addition to this repressive legislation, the government has taken various measures that make the work of independent civil society prohibitively difficult.

Civil society participation

There were major historical injustices perpetrated by subsequent governments against historically marginalized groups. While the current government, which came to power in 1991, prosecuted those responsible for some of the worst crimes committed by its predecessors, the process has been condemned internationally as flawed, politically motivated and designed to construct political legitimacy for the current regime, rather than ensuring accountability and bringing about justice and reconciliation.

Rather than the truth and reconciliation model used in some transitional countries such as South Africa, Chile and Argentina, Ethiopia opted for a prosecutorial approach to its past. This process did not have any procedure for processes of reconciliation and healing. Moreover, the prosecutorial process itself was politically influenced, leading to the charge of “victor’s justice.”

Instead of ensuring reconciliation, repair and healing to bring the various groups together and move into a reconciled future, the government uses history and memory to disparage its opponents.

Reconciliation

17 | International Cooperation

The government has been relatively effective in attracting international cooperation and assistance particularly in the area of development and security. While there are abuses of aid money and security arrangements to build the ruling party’s political machine, the government is nevertheless effective in using development aid and other forms of technical support to implement its development projects.

The government does have a long-term development strategy. Its ambitious Growth and Transformation Plan is a key element of its long-term development plan. International assistance and cooperation has been crucial to implementing aspects of this plan.

Effective use of support

The Ethiopian government has been a critical security partner and ally of the West, especially since 9/11. The country has been able to present itself as an oasis of stability in a volatile region, bordering Somalia, Eritrea and South Sudan. It went into Somalia to drive out Al Shabab. This made Ethiopia a reliable and credible partner in the eyes of Western and other allies.

While the government has been able to honor its obligations to security arrangements and other international obligations, it has not observed its human rights and democracy related obligations. While this has been the source of minor friction at times between the Ethiopian government and donor countries or multilateral agencies, such as the U.N. and the EU on the human rights records of the country, this has largely been ignored by the Ethiopian government. And the increasing subordination of human rights and democratic agenda to the imperatives of security in the West meant that the government’s overreach and abuse of power are tolerated with no consequences.

Credibility
6

The Ethiopian government has forged strong collaborative relationships with most governments in the region. While its once closest friend Eritrea is still an arch-enemy, the government has been able to establish and maintain a strong relationship with other neighboring countries. The Ethiopian government has been a key driver in various regional initiatives such as the IGAD (The Intergovernmental Authority on Development) and the African Union. During the last years of late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Ethiopia acted as the spokesperson and chief representative of the African Union on climate negotiations.

However, these cooperative relationships have been based, not on the requirement of justice and long-term interests of the country and the region, but of the ruling party itself. The country’s bilateral relations with its development and security partners is solid and it seems that the country often honors its part of the bargain.

The country’s relationship with Egypt has been particularly notable as the Nile issue stayed high on the political agenda both in Addis Ababa and Cairo, with the Ethiopian government making some conciliatory gestures to Egypt. But in essence it did not change its policy of unilateral hydrothermal energy structure expansion via the Grand Renaissance Dam, near the Sudanese border. In March 2015 the leaders of the three countries signed a Declaration of Principles in Khartoum (Sudan) on the peaceful regulation of Nile water use, with no concrete action taken to solve the dangerous water conflict yet.

Regional cooperation

Strategic Outlook

Authoritarianism and lack of democratic legitimacy remained the central impediments to Ethiopia’s transformation into a democratic state based on market economics and the rule of law. By fomenting division between the major ethnic groups in the country and presenting the current arrangement as the only imaginable blueprint that can guarantee the prosperity and continuity of the Ethiopian state, ethnic Tigrean elites, which dominate the current government, have managed to secure and consolidate their dominance in Ethiopian politics. By presenting itself as an oasis of stability in a highly volatile region, the government managed to convince regional and international actors to turn a blind eye to the abuses of the government. The government’s increasing reliance on manipulations of public opinion both at home and abroad and the long simmering hostilities and hatred do not serve the long-term strategic interest of Ethiopia or its regional and Western allies. While this may be effective in the short term, the status quo is simply unsustainable.

Effective political and socioeconomic transformation in Ethiopia calls for a bold and determined implementation of democratic reforms. With a 100 million people and a history of hostility and marginalization among its diverse population, Ethiopia cannot continue to be a stable authoritarian state. The government needs to take positive steps toward opening up the political system and implementing the constitution.

As a first step, the government can promote a policy of regional decentralization and genuine power sharing between center and regions instead of a policy of centralization and repression. One step would be giving the nine regional governments and their parliaments the rights, guaranteed by the constitution, the ability to participate in political decision-making and ensure local control of decisions that have consequences for the local population. The government can take steps to empower regional and local governments and gradually move toward full inclusion and implementation of the constitution. It should release all political prisoners and repeal repressive laws such as the Charities and Societies Proclamation and the Anti-Terrorism Proclamation that are aimed at controlling the population. The government should stop using unfair and unlawful bargaining procedures to resolve internal political challenges. It must de-escalate the tension in Oromia and Amhara regions as these are critical for the very existence of the Ethiopian state and the stability of the Horn of Africa region.

It is also vital that the government reform the Electoral Board, grant and guarantee human and democratic rights for all, ensure the independence of the judiciary and end the suppression of civil society and the media.

The Ethiopian government has a long way to go in creating a strong and resilient private sector. The private sector is dwarfed by politically motivated regulations, the monopoly of party-affiliated business, cronyism and corruption. Democratizing the system and providing the institutional framework necessary to regulate business activities without fear or favor goes a long way in removing the political and regulatory bottlenecks holding the private sector back. Ensuring the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary means a strong legal foundation for the settlement of disputes, a fair and reasonable enforcement of contract laws and protection of property rights. These are factors essential to fostering the confidence of businesses and investors in any country.

For the private sector in Ethiopia to thrive, the government should consider liberalizing the economy and opening up those sectors currently restricted to Ethiopian businesses. Liberalization can enable competition, unrestricted flow of capital and international investment, transfer of knowledge, including technical knowledge critical for the country to be seen by investors as a bold, confident, ambitious and outward-looking state.

Those in organized opposition movements and their supporters need to work together to bring pressure to bear on the government. The opposition camp in the country has been weak and often played into the hands of the government and its divisive strategies. It is critical for the opposition to forge a broad coalition that brings a range of actors to agree on a common vision and plan for the country and pressure the Ethiopian government to accept the demands for democratic reform.

In order to stabilize the political system in a very unstable region with several failing states (Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan), the governments of the European Union should not turn a blind eye to a repressive state based on military strength and repression of all political rivals.

These reforms are extremely important if Ethiopia is to avert the risks of a major ethnic conflict and bring about promised economic, social and political transformations.

. Ethiopian Airlines appears to be throwing Boeing under the bus. The Airbus, literally. It looks as if Flightradar24 might be lending a hand.

The only reason Ethiopian Airlines has made it this far is because of the USA. Loans from EXIM(Bank of the United states) and American laborers basically built the company. Boeing having a huge role Ethiopian Airlines growth, It makes a person wonder what Ethiopian Airlines is up to.

They also have the USA to thank for setting up their Air force. Eventually turning to Russia to purchase Migs along with restructuring their Air Force Russian style.

China has a lot of money invested in Ethiopia and Ethiopian Airlines. China grounded their MAX planes immediately after ET302 crashed. The USA is in a trade war with China. Boeing is our big dog in the fight. Airbus is China’s. Boeing is taking huge losses as Airbus profits. It’s not inconceivable that Ethiopia and China could be “pulling a fast one” It’s pretty annoying when I see corrupt 3rd world country companies like Ethiopian airlines snake their way in the world. It’s even more annoying when I see a company like Boeing just lay down and settle. If that’s the case Boeing can send me a check instead of paying whoever it may be that is handling the Flight ET302 investigation for Boeing because they are not very good at what they do.  

Conspiracy?

 

August 30 2018 ET-AIU/808 Ethiopian Air Force DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft Crash

Additional corruption report

2017 Ethiopian corruption report Click here

Prelim reports

Flight ET302 prelim report Click here

Flight JT610 prelim report Click here

Additional sources

Freedom House: Freedom in the World 2017.

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative: Ethiopia 2017.

US Department of State: Investment Climate Statement 2017.

Global Integrity: Africa Integrity Indicators 2017.

World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report 2016-2017.


World Bank: Doing Business 2017.

 

There is more information that I left out in a effort to keep this short.  Some shady people making shady moves.  That’s for another day.  I started looking into this the very morning flight ET302 crashed.   Lack of available time, life’s challenges keeping me busy.   Annoyed at looking at this unfinished project I forced myself to find time to finish it. Someday I will but this is a start.  Maybe we will be told the whole the truth one day.  for now, the search for the truth continues.

Respectfully,

Deplorable Patriot

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How much silver iodide is enough?

The development, testing and use of an airborne pyrotechnic cloud seeding system is described. Pyrotechnic flares producing 50 gm of silver iodide smoke each were developed by two industrial corporations and laboratory tested for nucleation effectiveness in the Colorado State University cloud chamber. A delivery rack and firing system were developed, under ESSA supervision, and installed on its B-57 jet aircraft. Night flight tests were made of reliability, burn time and flare trajectory. The flare system was used in a Florida cumulus seeding experiment in May 1968 conducted jointly by ESSA and the Naval Research Laboratory, with the participation of the U. S. Air Force, the University of Miami Radar Laboratory, and Meteorology Research, Inc. A randomized seeding scheme was used on 19 supercooled cumuli, of which 14 were seeded and 5 were studied identically as controls. Of the 14 seeded clouds, 13 grew explosively. Seeded clouds grew 11,400 ft higher than the controls, with the difference significant at better than the 0.5% level. Rainfall from seeded and control clouds was compared by means of calibrated ground radars. Large increases in rainfall were found from seeded clouds, but at a significance level ranging from 5–20% depending on the statistical test used. A single successful repeat of the experiment could result in rainfall differences significant at the 3% level with the most stringent test.
Journal of Applied Meteorology (1962-1982) © 1970 American Meteorological Society

Living in Central California it is not uncommon to see airplanes leaving trails of whatever the “flavor of the month” it is that they are spraying. Just about anytime of the day a person can look to the sky and see them hard at work. I’ve actually have seen 5 airplanes spraying at the same time. The sky changing from a clear day to a sky with the crisscrossed pattern the airplanes left behind.  Soon after, that sky disappears hidden behind a misty fog and held captive by the chemical the airplanes were spraying. It reaches ground level soon after dusk. At times I can taste it in the air. After a $1000 visit to to the emergency pet doctor I soon realize that the spraying could be the cause of my dog’s respiratory problems. Another $500 on a cheap air purifier, close all the windows and keep the doors shut. Stay indoors for the night. My dog, my girlfriend and I should be good for the night thankful that my girlfriend had the foresight to put money aside for such events. In the back of my mind I know that some of the “fog” is finding its way through the cracks of my home. I get the feeling of being on the receiving end of a blast from a giant can Raid. The “fog” enters the lungs and slowly starts to destroy the body from from the inside. A creeping death. Some call it “Weather Modification”.  Some call them “Chemtrails”. Both could be right. The incorrect answer would be calling them “Contrails”.  I call it bul@%$it, and it needs to stop.  But that’s a different story for another day.
This topic came up the other day after a friend and both noticed a couple of airplanes spraying across the sky. My friend,”Tad” tried to convince me that they were “Contrails”. He said “that’s just condensed water left behind” Since a commercial jet flies over about every minute, I quickly pointed out the difference. Still he was not convinced.
With all the spraying as well as all the documented evidence available I am amazed that there are so many people like “Tad” that refuse to believe any sort of Weather Modification or Chemtrails exist. For that reason I have decided to provide some documents that should be enough to change “Tad’s” mind, or any others that may share “Tad’s” point of view. The documents are slightly dated but the best example I can provide. The complete set of documents contain flight logs, names, places, projects, dates, scientific data, email contacts, everything. These are just screenshots of some of those documents. Only a preview. At the end of this post you will see a link that will take you to the complete file. Click the link. As always, let the documents speak for themselves.
You might have to zoom in on the screenshots due to tech issues on my end. The same images are available and a little easier on the eyes if you click on the link and the end of the article.

The following is the text only version(no images) of a bulletin from the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (SCMO) . It is a summary of the information I am providing. I would suggest that you click on the link to the pdf provided to see related images and save yourself some time. To see original pdf click the following that is underlined.
CMOSBulletinVol35Special (1)

Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society SCMO
La Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie
ISSN 1195-8898 . BULLETIN CMOS September / septembre 2007 Vol.35 Special issue / Numéro spécial
ALHAS # AHP #
The CMOS Bulletin SCMO wishes to thank the sponsors of this special issue:
Le CMOS Bulletin SCMO remercie les commanditaires de ce numéro spécial:
http://levelton.com
-ii- CMOS Bulletin SCMO Vol.35, Numéro spécial
http://www.arc.ab.ca
http://weathermod.com
… from the CMOS Bulletin SCMO Editorial Board
Dear readers,
The CMOS Bulletin SCMO Editorial Board is pleased to join the scientific team celebrating this year 50 years in studying hail in Alberta. This scientific team, whose members have varied throughout the years, come from different universities, McGill University, University of Alberta, l’Université du Québec à Montréal, University of Wyoming, USA, and University of Essex, UK, and from different government organizations, federal and provincial. The impact of hail storms is catastrophic on this Canadian region and has economic consequences on major crops. The Editorial Board thought that, because of the importance of the study and of its longevity, it deserves a special publication. This special issue of the CMOS Bulletin SCMO provides an historical synopsis of this scientific adventure. It also lists its major accomplishments. Furthermore, it looks at the future in presenting a new study, now at an advance stage of planning, the UNSTABLE project.
We hope that you will enjoy reading this special issue and we look forward to reading your comments in a future issue of the CMOS Bulletin SCMO.
CMOS Bulletin SCMO Editorial Board
… du comité éditorial du CMOS Bulletin SCMO
Chers lecteurs,
L’équipe éditoriale du CMOS Bulletin SCMO est fière de se joindre à l’équipe scientifique qui célèbre cette année 50 ans de recherche sur un problème météorologique particulier, la grêle en Alberta. Cette équipe scientifique, dont les membres ont varié au cours des années, provient de milieux universitaires multiples: l’université McGill, l’université de l’Alberta, l’université du Québec à Montréal, l’université du Wyoming, États-Unis et l’université d’Essex au Royaume-Uni, et de différentes organisations gouvernementales, fédérale et provinciales. L’impact de la grêle sur cette région canadienne est catastrophique et a des répercussions économiques sur les principales récoltes. L’équipe éditoriale a donc jugé bon de publier ces textes en un numéro spécial étant donné l’importance du sujet traité et de sa longévité. Ce numéro spécial du CMOS Bulletin SCMO relate l’historique de cette brillante aventure scientifique. Il en énumère les accomplissements les plus significatifs. Et il jette un regard sur l’avenir en mettant en vedette une étude qui est présentement à un étape avancée de la planification, le projet UNSTABLE.
Nous souhaitons que vous apprécierez ce numéro spécial et il nous fera plaisir de lire vos commentaires dans un prochain numéro du CMOS Bulletin SCMO.
Comité éditorial du CMOS Bulletin SCMO
-1- CMOS Bulletin SCMO Vol.35, Special issue
CMOS Bulletin SCMO Volume 35 Special Issue Volume 35 Numéro spécial September 2007 — Septembre 2007
Inside / En Bref
from the CMOS Bulletin SCMO Editorial Board du comité éditorial du CMOS Bulletin SCMO
page 01
Articles
50th Anniversary of Hail Studies in Alberta – Accomplishments and Legacy by G.S. Strong, B. Kochtubajda, P.W. Summers, J.H. Renick, T.W. Krauss, R.G. Humphries and E.P. Lozowski page 03
The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE): A Report following the First Science Workshop, Edmonton, Alberta by Neil Taylor, David Sills, John Hanesiak, Jason Milbrandt, Pat McCarthy, Craig Smith and Geoff Strong page 20
Printed in Kanata, Ontario, by Gilmore Printing Services Inc. Imprimé sous les presses de Gilmore Printing Services Inc., Kanata, Ontario.
This publication is produced under the authority of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Except where explicitly stated, opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the Society.
Cette publication est produite sous la responsabilité de la Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie. À moins d’avis contraire, les opinions exprimées sont celles des auteurs et ne reflètent pas nécessairement celles de la Société.
CMOS exists for the advancement of meteorology and oceanography in Canada.
Le but de la SCMO est de stimuler l’intérêt pour la météorologie et l’océanographie au Canada.
CMOS Bulletin SCMO “at the service of its members / au service de ses membres”
Editor / Rédacteur: Paul-André Bolduc Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie P.O. Box 3211, Station D Ottawa, ON, Canada K1P 6H7 E-Mail: bulletin@cmos.ca; Courriel: bulletin@scmo.ca
Cover page : The composite picture on the front cover shows an artistic rendering of the conceptual model of seeding multi-cellular hailstorms (centre). Also shown, clockwise from top left are: the giant hailstorm photo of 11 August 1972 (Goyer 1978); INTERA-ARC research Aircraft; AHP S-, X-, and C-Band radars; radiosonde balloon release; tennis-ball size hailstone from 6 July 1975; Project Hailstop storm-chase vehicles; and hail-flattened crop (100% damage with trees ‘defoliated’ in background). Also appearing is the logo for project UNSTABLE. For more information on hail studies in Alberta, please read the two articles on pages 3 and 20.
Page couverture: La composition centrale de la page couverture est une interprétation artistique du modèle conceptuel de l’ensemencement de tempêtes de grêle multi-cellulaires. On voit aussi, dans le sens anti-cyclonique commençant en haut à gauche de la photo, la fameuse tempête de grêle géante du 11 août 1972; l’avion de recherche de INTERA-ARC; les radars en bandes AHP S-, X- et C; un lancement de ballon radiosonde; des grêlons de la taille de balles de tennis du 6 juillet 1975; les véhicules de poursuite de tempête de grêle du projet Hailstop; ainsi qu’une récolte abattue par la grêle (100% de dommage avec arbres défoilés en arrière-plan). On montre également le logo du projet UNSTABLE. Pour plus d’information sur ces deux études de grêle en Alberta, prière de lire les articles en pages 3 et 20.
CMOS Executive Office / Bureau de la SCMO
P.O. Box 3211, Station D Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1P 6H7 Fax / Fascimilé: 613-990-1617 homepage: http://www.cmos.ca page d’accueil: http://www.scmo.ca
Dr. Ian Rutherford Executive Director – Directeur exécutif Tel/Tél.: 613-990-0300 E-mail/Courriel: cmos@cmos.ca
Dr. Richard Asselin Director of / Directeur des Publications Tel/Tél.: 613-991-0151 E-mail/Courriel: publications@cmos.ca
-2- CMOS Bulletin SCMO Vol.35, Numéro spécial
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS)
Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie (SCMO)
Executive / Exécutif
President / Président Dr. Paul G. Myers University of Alberta Tel: 780-492-6706; Fax: 780-492-2030 E-mail/Courriel: president@cmos.ca
Vice-President / Vice-président Andrew Bush University of Alberta Tel: 780-492-0351; Fax: 780-492-2030 E-mail/Courriel: vice-president@cmos.ca
Treasurer / Trésorier Ron Hopkinson Custom Climate Services, Regina Tel: 306-586-5489; Fax: 306-586-5489 E-mail/Courriel: treasurer@cmos.ca
Corresponding Secretary / Secrétaire-correspondant Bob Kochtubajda Environment Canada Tel: 780-951-8811; Fax: 780-951-8634 E-mail/Courriel: corsec@cmos.ca
Recording Secretary / Secrétaire d’assemblée Bill Hume Tel: 780-989-4103 E-mail/Courriel: billhume@shaw.ca
Past-President / Président ex-officio Dr. Geoff Strong Tel: 780-922-0665; Fax: 780-922-0678 E-mail/Courriel: past-president@cmos.ca
Councillors-at-large / Conseillers 1) Dr. Neil Campbell Tel: 613-731-4512 E-mail/Courriel: neiljc@rogers.com
2) Kent Johnson Environment Canada, Kelowna Tel: 604-763-3532 E-mail/Courriel: kent.johnson@ec.gc.ca
3) Brad Shannon Environment Canada, Calgary Tel: 403-299-3534; E-mail/Courriel: bshannon@shaw.ca
ARTICLES
50th Anniversary of Hail Studies in Alberta Accomplishments and Legacy
by G.S. Strong1, B. Kochtubajda2, P.W. Summers3, J.H. Renick4, T.W. Krauss5, R.G. Humphries6 and E.P. Lozowski7
1 Ardrossan AB (1973, 1976-1986) – corresponding author,
geoff.strong@shaw.ca
4 Red Deer, AB (1965, 1968-1986)
2 MSC, Environment Canada, Edmonton, AB (1975-1986) 5 Weather Modification Inc., Red Deer, AB
(1974-1976, 1978-84)
3 Richmond Hill, ON (1963-1973) 6 Richmond, BC (1970-1972, 1974-1986)
7 Edmonton, AB (1972-1980)
Note: In the above table, the years in parentheses after each author’s location denote their participation on ALHAS, AHP, or AWMB.
ABSTRACT: This year marks the 50th anniversary of the start of hail studies in Alberta. There were two major projects during this period involving several agencies, the one constant being Alberta Research Council (ARC). The McGill University Stormy Weather Group, with federal funding support, was prominent in the early period, but phased out as weather modification emphasis increased after 1969. The radar facilities were originally provided and operated by the National Research Council. By 1973 the funding was provided mainly by Alberta Agriculture and ARC and continued until the field studies ended in 1985. This article provides a historical synopsis, summarizing the observational methods and many of the scientific accomplishments. Finally, the legacy of the hail studies in terms of research programs since 1985 is discussed. Full details of the scientific results can be found in the large body of published literature.
RÉSUMÉ: Cette année marque le 50ième anniversaire du début des études de grêle en Alberta. Pendant cette période, deux projets importants impliquaient plusieurs agences dont le fidèle Conseil de recherche de l’Alberta (l’ARC). Le groupe universitaire McGill sur la météorologie des tempêtes, avec le soutien financier du fédéral, était proéminent dans la première période, mais s’est désisté peu à peu avec l’accentuation en 1969 sur la modification du temps. À l’origine, l’équipement radar a été fourni et opéré par le Conseil national de recherche. À partir de 1973, le financement a été fourni surtout par le ministère de l’agriculture de l’Alberta et l’ARC et a continué jusqu’à la fin des études sur le terrain en 1985. Cet article présente un exposé historique, en énumérant les méthodes d’observations, et rappelle plusieurs accomplissements scientifiques réussis. Finalement, le legs des études de grêle en tant que programmes de recherche depuis 1985 est discuté. Les détails complets des résultats scientifiques peuvent être trouvés dans la littérature publiée.
1. Introduction Central Alberta experiences thunderstorms on 55-75% of summer days, hail on 50% of days, and severe hail (bigger than walnut size) on 15% of days (Strong and Smith, 2001). The point frequency of hail over central Alberta varies from 2-6 days per year (Wojtiw, 1975). While these hail frequencies are comparable to those of the High Plains of the U.S. in the lee of the Rockies, tornadoes are not as common in Alberta as over the southern U.S. Alberta thunderstorms form predominantly over the foothills and track generally eastward (Figure 1). They are remarkable because of the high frequency of large hail, which causes widespread damage to economically significant grain crops such as wheat, canola, barley and oats.
Thus, economic losses due to hail have been a long- standing problem in Alberta. However, during the early- 1950s a series of severe hailstorms caused more damage
than usual in the central Alberta region between Calgary and Red Deer, where hail insurance was very limited or not available at all in many localities. This prompted farmers in central Alberta to approach the provincial government for help, including the possibility of using the newly discovered techniques of cloud seeding to mitigate hailstorm damage. The issue was passed on to the Alberta Research Council (ARC) for guidance, where research chemist Mac Elofson and the Director of Research, Nathaniel Grace, were already predisposed towards taking on the problem (Elofson, 1991). Weather modification science at that time was in its infancy. Consequently, following meetings with interested parties in Alberta, it was recommended that, because of the lack of scientific consensus on the viability of weather modification, a research program should be established to gain a better scientific understanding of hailstorms before any attempts were made at mitigation.
-3- CMOS Bulletin SCMO Vol.35, Special Issue
Postcard In June 1955, the Meteorological Branch of the Department
questionnaires were mailed out to some 6500 of Transport convened a meeting with the Alberta Research
farmers in an area of 10,000 km2 around Red Deer with a Council (ARC), the provincial Department of Agriculture,
request to respond when they received hail. More than 500 and the University of Alberta to discuss the scientific issues.
volunteer reports were mailed in. The most surprising It was agreed that the Meteorological Branch and ARC
discovery from this was that hail occurred somewhere in the should co-operate on a summer pilot program in the main
area on 42 days during the summer. This greatly exceeds hail belt of central Alberta during the summer of 1956.
the climatological point hailfall frequency of 4 days per year Elofson and Grace took on this pilot program, working out
recorded at the meteorological stations in the test area. of Didsbury in central Alberta; they were joined by Dick
The hail occurrences could be plotted accurately since each Douglas from the McGill Stormy Weather Group (SWG).
farm was precisely located on the Dominion Land Survey Their goal was to test the feasibility of using farmers as
grid system. This pilot project was considered a success, observers to provide valuable information on storms.
but the need for a radar storm-tracking system was immediately recognized. Hence, the McGill SWG was asked to take over scientific leadership of the project for 1957, with funding provided by the Meteorological Branch.
Figure 1: 1975 Hailswath tracks for storms with hail size greater than grape. Outlined area is the AHP (1974-85) research and operations region (after Deibert, ed., 1975).
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Figure 2: Hail reporting form for (a) 1959 Alberta Hail Studies, and (b) 1985 Alberta Hail Project.
2. Alberta Hail Studies, 1957-73 Hail research began in earnest in the spring of 1957 with the installation of a 3-cm Decca radar at RCAF Station Penhold (later called Red Deer Airport) by the SWG in collaboration with the National Research Council (NRC) and ARC. The Alberta Hail Studies (ALHAS) was thus born in 1957, and so began a program of systematic and continuous summer observations of hailstorms using three main tools: radar to study the internal structure of storms; cloud photography to study the visual morphology of cloud turrets and their growth rates; and volunteer hail reports and samples to study hailfall patterns on the ground. The airport site became the field research and operations base for the next 30 years. The research was initially concentrated in a quasi-rectangular region, roughly 350 km by 150 km, which included Red Deer and Calgary.
Figure 2a is a sample volunteer hail report from 1959, providing valuable information on storm date, location, time
and duration of hail, maximum size and relevant storm comments. This type of hail reporting was continued with minor revisions and additions until the hail program ended in 1985 (Figure 2b). It was supplemented by telephone surveys immediately following storms.
The initial focus on precipitation particles established a certain mode of research that continued into the 1970s, based on five key questions:
1. What is the climatology of hail in central Alberta? 2. What are the characteristics of hail-producing storms observed by radar? 3. What are the freezing properties of water from hailstones and rain? 4. Using numerical models of the day, how does hail grow within a storm? 5. What synoptic weather phenomena are associated with hailstorms in Alberta?
Figure 2a
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Figure 2b
Figure 3: Numbers of hail days and reports and distribution of hail size in central Alberta, 1957-58 (reproduced from Douglas, 1959).
At that time, and up until the late 1970s, there was a general belief within the severe storm research community that while larger-scale (synoptic) processes prepared the atmosphere for storms to develop, once initiated, storms formed their own circulation, kinematics and life cycle virtually independent of synoptic processes. We now understand that thunderstorms are not independent entities, and that they, in turn, influence synoptic processes.
2.1 Some Early ALHAS Research Results, 1957-63 The Meteorological Branch continued its support of the program, committing a meteorologist for weather forecasting and related duties, from 1960 through 1975. With continued funding from the Meteorological Branch, McGill scientists conducted most of the research analysis during this early period, establishing the early climatology shown in Figure 3.
This period likely produced the earliest confirmation of organized hailswaths, as depicted in Figure 4 for a severe storm on 26 July 1962. This was an early step in recognizing that hail events were not sporadic outputs from the storm but organized features. In addition to hail reports and microphysical data obtained from actual hail samples (with subsequent laboratory analysis), radar was the major research tool in these early years of ALHAS. Figure 4: Two hailswaths (denoted by solid/broken lines) inferred from volunteer hail reports for severe hailstorm of 26 July 1962,with hail sizes indicated by plotted numbers: 1-shot; 2-pea; 3-grape; 4-walnut; 5-golfball; 6 >golfball; 0- unknown size (reproduced from Williams & Douglas, 1963).
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Figure 5: Equivalent reflectivity (3.3 cm) vs. precipitation rate (R) and hail mass concentration (M) (reproduced from Douglas, 1963).
The 3-cm radar was a crude meteorological tool with output consisting of photographs of the PPI scans. Nevertheless, it made it possible to relate the radar storm cells to ground- based hail data. A major improvement in radar analysis was introduced by the SWG in 1959, with the introduction of a ‘grey-scale’ that displayed radar echoes in quantized shades of grey corresponding to values of reflectivity. This allowed the detection and location of the highest intensity echoes. In spite of serious attenuation problems with the 3-cm band radar signal, SWG scientists carried out ground- breaking research, revealing relations between reflectivity and rainfall rate and between reflectivity and hail mass concentration (Figure 5).
Achievements during this period included:
# distinguishing between single-cell storms that gave a single burst of hail, and multi-cell storms where new cells formed on the southern flank, producing almost continuous hailswaths up to 100 km in length; # quantifying the strong correlation between the height of the radar echo top and the probability of hail at the ground; # developing an instability index (Slydex) for forecasting hail occurrence (Sly, 1964); # developing a theory of accumulation zones of high liquid water content (LWC) to account for rapid hailstone growth; # initiating laboratory and theoretical work on the drop freezing and nucleation processes (Vali, 1965).
2.2 Shift in Research Emphasis to Large-Scale Dynamics, 1964-68 The installation of a 10-cm, broad-beam radar in 1963 facilitated studies of storm dynamics. At the same time, an interest in extra-storm dynamics also arose. Several developments contributed to this new interest: having a trained forecaster on-site, early insights into storm and extra-storm dynamics observed with the old 3-cm, ‘grey- scale’ radar and via a continuing cloud photography program, the acquisition of a METOX radiosonde system in Calgary in 1966, to assess atmospheric instability and wind profiles, and the acquisition of a number of pilot balloon theodolites for measuring wind fields. The sounding systems allowed investigation of mesoscale dynamics beyond the storm boundaries. In 1967, the broad beam radar was replaced with a new 10-cm, pencil beam radar. This reduced the attenuation problem considerably and it quickly became apparent that research had to expand well beyond the ‘visible storm’ structure.
These new tools revealed that certain synoptic patterns favoured the formation of thunderstorms, such as a southwest flow at upper levels with an approaching shortwave trough (Longley and Thompson, 1965). The mean upper air charts from the Longley and Thompson study suggest that Alberta storms occur predominantly behind the low-level trough (or cold front), in the cold baroclinic zone, but ahead of the upper trough. This synoptic environment is significantly different, in general, from that of storms forming over the prairies to the east, where a cold front or frontal wave is often involved.
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During this period, it also became apparent that the mountains and foothills played an important role in Alberta storms. This discovery resulted in moving the Calgary radiosonde system into the foothills at Rocky Mountain House around 1969. However, apart from the work of Derome (1965), who showed that environmental ascent, especially in the boundary layer, was related to storm formation, the primary research focus remained on storm scale processes, throughout the first 20 years.
Meanwhile, great strides were also being made elsewhere in radar and cloud physics research. As a result, the project gained international interest and participation, including exchange visits between U.S., Russian and Canadian scientists. The new 10-cm radar provided the highest resolution of any research radar in North America. A new signal display technique HARPI (Height-Azimuth-Range Position Indicator) was developed by the SWG (Zawadzki and Ballantyne, 1968). It provided 1-km resolution in echo intensity at a range of 60 km. These detailed measurements gave a whole new insight into storm structure, showing, for the first time, the weak echo region (WER) and high intensity overhang echoes associated with the updraft. The addition of polarization to the radar signal was a major advancement in radar technology that showed promise for identifying precipitation types. By combining echo polarization information with normal reflectivity, Barge (1972) was able to develop real time “hail detector” display. This proved to be invaluable for directing seeding aircraft and mobile precipitation samplers during subsequent seeding operations in 1972 and 1973.
During 1967, an instrumented Cessna turboprop aircraft from Meteorology Research Inc. made turbulence and ice nucleus measurements in and around cumulus clouds in the foothills. Such measurements were a necessary precursor to cloud seeding, providing an indication of the ice nucleus production rates that would be required. During 1968 and 1969, an instrumented C-45H Beechcraft aircraft from the University of Wyoming made extensive measurements of water vapor fluxes in the updraft regions of storms (Marwitz and Berry, 1971), enabling moisture budgets for a storm to be estimated.
Pell (1967) reviewed the concept that steady-state storms produce a near continuous swath of hail along their tracks. His work revealed ‘gaps’ in the hailswaths and he concluded that a much denser network of hail observations was necessary to determine the source of the gaps. Subsequently, Pell (1969) observed an echo-free region within a hailstorm; this observation was subsequently confirmed by Chisholm (1973), who identified these regions as a manifestation of a strong updraft in the storm. This weak echo feature remains an essential ingredient in nowcasting severe storms today, providing alerts for severe hail and potential tornado formation. Thyer (1970) and Ragette (1971) revealed new features of the boundary layer wind field in the pre-storm environment, as well as wind structures in and around storms.
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2.3 Parallel Hail Suppression Program, 1956-68 During the first dozen years of ALHAS, weather modification was not part of the research effort. Frustrated by this perceived inaction on the part of government and research agencies, local farm groups, including the Alberta Weather Modification Co-op and the Wheatland Weather Modification Association, canvassed volunteer contributions and raised sufficient funds to contract Irving P. Krick Associates of Canada Ltd. to carry out cloud seeding operations. This program was initiated in July 1956, using a network of farmer-operated, ground-based generators, intended to deliver silver iodide into convective clouds via natural convection. There were claims that this seeding program produced dramatic reductions in hail damage losses. However, a subsequent evaluation of ground-based seeding, carried out by AHP in the 1980s, showed that, while plumes from ground-based generators occasionally reached cloud base, they typically were narrow and filled only a few percent of the target volume.
2.4 Project Hailstop, 1969-72 The first dozen years of hail research had yielded an appreciable scientific understanding of hailstorm behaviour. Meanwhile, the interest and pressure from the farming community was rising. The time seemed right to investigate cloud seeding for hail suppression. Phase 1 of Project Hailstop consisted of a series of cloud seeding experiments, conducted in July 1969, using a B-26 aircraft from the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada (Renick, 1969). The experiments involved seeding in updraft areas below cloud base, using AgI and Indium Hydroxide (an inert tracer). Ground-based mobile units were deployed to collect precipitation samples. Also in 1969, a T-33 jet from the NRC was used to measure the upper-level winds and turbulence structure in the storm environment.
In order to implement the seeding more efficiently and precisely in 1970, a new cloud seeding concept was proposed. The idea was to seed newly developing towers at the appropriate time in their life cycle, in order to induce greater competition for the available water supply, thereby preventing the growth of large hail. To accomplish this, a new cloud seeding delivery system was developed jointly by ARC and NRC using the T-33 (Summers et al., 1972). Droppable pyrotechnic flares were used, fused to fall about 2 km before releasing the AgI in the final 1 km of fall. A unique feature was radar chaff released at flare burn-out, to enable seeding locations to be pinpointed. The required seeding heights were estimated from a real-time cloud model and the aircraft was directed to target cells at the correct altitude, on the basis of radar echoes and pilot visuals. Flares were then dropped at 300-m intervals across the target. These logistics were tested on 40 storms during 1970-72, with assistance from University of Wyoming aircraft. These experiments suggested that storms could be seeded successfully using droppable flares, since the radar recorded lower radar reflectivities and lower precipitation fall speeds from seeded cells than unseeded cells. These results suggested that there were smaller hailstones in the seeded cells and this was confirmed by smaller hail
During collected at the ground. The results also indicated that a
this period, work also began on a dynamical capability existed to detect physical effects of seeding and
hailstorm model (Srivastava, 1964; Takeda, 1969), and use them as an evaluation tool, rather than relying solely on
ground-based, mobile units were developed to chase statistical analyses.
storms, measure winds and collect hail and rain samples for laboratory analysis. Chisholm (1973) developed a simple, Renick (1966) developed a stereo, time-lapse cloud
one-dimensional, steady-state model to estimate the vertical photography system that provided detailed information on
velocity, temperature, and liquid water content in storms, the visual structure and growth rates of storms. Together
using single soundings. This proved useful both for short- with Warner et al. (1972), he associated the cloud towers of
term forecasting and for diagnostic studies of storms. a hailstorm with updraft regions in the storm and with
English (1973) used a two-dimensional cloud model to individual radar cells that developed every few minutes.
estimate hail growth rates and size; the model also inferred This work led to the development of important kinematic
radar reflectivities that were similar to values measured in models of single-cell, multicell and supercell storms
four severe storms. (Chisholm and Renick, 1972). The evolution and wind profile of a typical multicell storm is shown in Figure 6. The identification of multiple, regenerating cells in storms helped to explain the ‘gaps’ in hailswaths noted by Pell (1967).
Figure 6: Kinematic model of an Alberta multicell storm and its wind hodograph (reproduced from Chisholm and Renick, 1972).
2.5 1973 – A Transition Year Responding to increasing concerns expressed by farmers in central Alberta over continuing crop losses and their perceived lack of progress in implementing effective hail suppression techniques, the provincial government established a Special Legislative Committee in 1972, with a mandate to investigate crop insurance and weather modification in Alberta. After a series of hearings around the province, which included presentations from many sectors and from invited experts from outside the province, a report was tabled in the Legislature in November 1972. The main recommendation was that the province should finance a 5-year, active hail suppression program to begin in 1974. However, as plans were already in place for the 1973 ALHAS field program, an Interim Weather Modification Board was appointed to fund and oversee a pilot cloud- seeding project. The IWMB, which became the Alberta
Weather Modification Board (AWMB), consisted of a dozen or so individuals, representing the farm community, the University of Alberta, ARC and Alberta Agriculture. INTERA Technologies Ltd. were chartered to seed all potential hail storms in a defined area south of Penhold, using three turbocharged Cessna aircraft. In 1973 seeding was carried out on 15 days.
2.6 Hailfall Analyses Eighteen years of intensive hail survey data facilitated the formulation of a basic hailfall climatology (Wojtiw, 1975). Figure 7 shows that the highest point frequency of hail occurs over or near the foothills, with maxima near Rocky Mountain House (RM) and Sundre (SU). Wojtiw also demonstrated the important seasonal variation of hailfall, which appears to follow the summer crop emergence, growth and harvesting cycle. An updated version of the
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seasonal cycle for the full 29-year period (1957-85) of hail studies can be found in ARC (1986).
Figure 7: Annual point frequency of hail over central Alberta, based on 1957-73 ALHAS hail surveys (reproduced from Wojtiw, 1975).
The first attempt to quantify hail size distributions in Alberta using hailpads was carried out in 1973. Alberta hailpads were one foot square pieces of Styrofoam, fixed to the ground and calibrated to estimate the hail size distribution, ice mass, and impact energy density, from recorded hail dent sizes on the pads (Strong, 1974). Detailed objective data on hailswaths and hailstreaks, based on surface measurements, were now available for the first time (see Figure 8, after Strong and Lozowski, 1977). This program was discontinued after 1980 because the pad analysis was very labour-intensive; however, it could now be resurrected as an inexpensive but valuable analysis tool, in view of the advent of digital photography and automated analysis software that can easily be run on today’s desktop computers.
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Figure 8: (a) Mesoscale and (b) Cloud-scale analyses of hailswath impact kinetic energy density (J m-2) on August 16, 1973. Each small square in (a) is one section of land (1 square mile), with the ‘X’ marking the land section of (b) (reproduced from Strong and Lozowski, 1977).
Figure 8b
Figure 8a
Figure 9: An artistic rendering of the hailstorm conceptual model, including effect of seeding, where “premature rainout” occurs in feeder clouds (lower-left flank), while seeding material (AgI) entering the rapidly-developing new cells leads to “beneficial competition”, producing larger numbers of smaller hailstones (adapted from ARC, 1986).
3. Alberta Hail Project (AHP), 1974-85 The final dozen years of large-scale hail studies in Alberta began in 1974, under the rubric Alberta Hail Project (AHP). The AHP was operated by ARC and administered by the Alberta Weather Modification Board (AWMB), which had been established by the Alberta government, with primary funding from Alberta Agriculture. There were two 5-year programs, 1974-78 and 1981-85, with two interim years in 1979 and 1980. The second 5-year program differed slightly from the first in that it included exploratory studies of cloud seeding to increase rain and snow. These were managed by Guy Goyer (1975a,b) of ARC.
3.1 The Alberta Weather Modification Board (AWMB), 1974-85 The AWMB consisted of several farmers (5) and representatives from the University of Alberta (2), Alberta Agriculture (1) and ARC (2). Its mandate was to conduct both a research and an operational hail suppression program and to evaluate each. The 80 mile (~130 km) radar
range ring was used to define the project area shown in Figure 1, with northern and southern sectors omitted due to heavy aircraft traffic around the Edmonton and Calgary International Airports. The plan was to conduct full-seed operations over the southern half of the project area and randomized experimental seeding over the northern half. This compromise seeding solution was formulated to satisfy the desire for “crop protection” coming from some farmers in the southern half of the project area (as expressed by their representatives on the AWMB). Like many compromises, it had its drawbacks. In particular, evaluation was confounded, because the AWMB mandated that storms moving northward from the southern half into the northern half should continue to be seeded across the boundary, while any northern storms threatening the southern half had to be seeded prior to crossing the boundary. Despite this additional complication introduced into the evaluation of the randomized seeding program, the AWMB did, nevertheless, provide a solid funding base for hailstorm research.
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3.2 Cloud Seeding Operations The AHP project facilities were located at the Red Deer Industrial Airport and consisted of weather and aircraft tracking radars and a computer system developed and operated under contract by the Alberta Research Council. Project aircraft were equipped with special transponders that enabled controllers at the site to identify, track and direct seeding aircraft to the hailstorms. A computer- generated, real-time radar and aircraft display system was developed for this purpose, and data were recorded for subsequent scientific analysis of storm characteristics. A 5- cm radar system was also added to provide an all-weather monitoring capability (for example, when on-site winds were too high to operate the 10 cm radar antenna).
INTERA Technologies Ltd of Calgary were contracted to conduct the cloud seeding operations, using seven twin- engined aircraft, from1974 to 1985. Two cloud seeding methods were used. Cloud-top seeding was executed with ejectable, short-burn, silver iodide (AgI) flares, dropped into growing convective turrets along the edges of the main storm. Cloud-base seeding was conducted just below cloud base, along the edge of the storm updraft area, using burning flares attached to the aircraft’s wings. The seeding program ran from June 20 to September 10 each year, over a target area of 48,000 km2, centered on Red Deer Airport. All potential hailstorms in the southern half of the area were seeded, while during the first 2 years, the northern half of the area was seeded on a 50-50 randomized basis. A partial analysis of the effect of the seeding operations on hail crop losses was presented by Goyer and Renick, (1979).
3.3 Cloud Microphysics and the Hailstorm Conceptual Model During Project Hailstop, a conceptual model of the microphysics and multi-cellular structure of Alberta storms (Figure 9) had evolved from radar, aircraft and photogrammetric studies, which showed how the air and moisture flows interacted with precipitation in the storm (Renick, 1971; Summers and Renick, 1971; Renick et al, 1972; Chisholm, 1973). It was hypothesized that hailstorm embryos formed in feeder clouds that are seen, visually, as cloud towers and by radar as individual echo cells. These cells as they developed went on to become the main body of the storm. According to the model, the embryos grew rapidly on the abundant super-cooled liquid water carried aloft by the main updraft.
Later, this conceptual model was refined, based on the work of Barge and Bergwall (1976), who showed that radar storm cells contained fine scale reflectivity patterns (FSRPs). These FSRPs usually evolved more regularly than the larger storm cells. FSRPs were usually identified on the southern edge of storm radar echoes, and could be tracked from their formation through their intensification stages, as they moved through the high reflectivity region of the echo, until they finally became obscured in the echo dissipation zone. FSRPs were considered to be a radar manifestation of the new, rapidly growing cloud towers, visually observed
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on the southern flank of the storm.
Cumulus clouds forming along the southern edge of the storm (the new growth zone) usually persisted for 10 to 15 minutes before growing rapidly into large cloud turrets. The tops of these ‘new-growth zone’ cumuli were usually colder than 0°C and were considered to be the major source of hail embryos for the storm. The hail suppression hypothesis suggested that the introduction of ice nuclei into these developing towers would generate larger numbers of embryos that would compete with natural embryos for the available liquid water, resulting in reduced hailstone sizes.
In order to gain an understanding of the physical processes occurring in storms and the effects of cloud seeding on them, the Alberta Research Council and INTERA Technologies Ltd, jointly developed an instrumented cloud physics aircraft. Controlled, glaciogenic seeding experiments on the feeder clouds and growing towers in the new growth zone were conducted. The aim was to assess the impact of seeding treatments upon the growth of potential hailstone embryos within these towers and upon the production of hail by the main storm. In these experiments, feeder clouds meeting pre-specified cloud-top temperature, horizontal cloud dimensions, liquid water concentration, ice concentration and updraft criteria were seeded. The double blind, randomized seeding treatments used either a placebo, Silver Iodide (produced by droppable flares) or dry ice pellets. Following seeding, the treatment effects and the subsequent precipitation growth processes were simultaneously documented, by repeated penetrations of the treated cloud by the heavily instrumented research aircraft and by observation with the S-band radar system. Storm chase vehicles were also deployed to intercept the storm and collect time-resolved hailstone samples.
The results from the randomized hailstorm seeding experiments indicated that seeding increased precipitation within feeder clouds, (Krauss and Marwitz, 1984; Krauss and English, 1984). In some cases, cloud seeding appeared to cause hail embryos to precipitate out of the feeder cloud prematurely. However, limitations in the measuring and observing facilities did not allow conclusive proof that more hail embryos led to smaller hail on the ground, or that premature rain-out of embryos yielded fewer hailstones on the ground. However, some evidence from hailstone samples indicated that cloud seeding altered hailfall at the ground (Cheng et al., 1985).
During 1985 an ‘armoured’ T-28 aircraft from the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology flew cloud penetrations into the region where hailstone embryos were thought to enter the storm and become hailstones. Flights were coordinated with the Cessna Conquest research aircraft and mobile sampling on the ground.
3.4 Radar Research Research with weather radar began in 1957, when the National Research Council (NRC) installed a 3.2-cm Decca DC-19 radar at Penhold. This was replaced in 1963 with a 10-cm FPS-502 (S-band) radar. Meanwhile, since NRC had developed a 1.8-cm polarization diversity radar (McCormick, 1964), they designed a dual polarization antenna for the FPS-502, using a feed horn that was scaled up from the 1.8-cm feed horn. The new antenna was installed in the spring of 1967 (Allan et al., 1967). The goal was to detect hail in convective storms by means of the circular depolarization ratio and the cross-correlation of simultaneously received signals of right and left circular polarization.
The Alberta polarization diversity radar was recognized at that time as the best of its kind. Up until the S-band was installed, the Soviets were the leaders in using polarization techniques to study precipitation. However, they were limited by the poor polarization qualities of the antennas used (Shupiatskii and Morgunov, 1963). As noted in previous sections, the S-band radar was used to further knowledge about the development and growth of hailstorms. As a result of polarization studies both in Alberta and in Ottawa it was determined that:
# Raindrops tend to fall with their symmetry axis vertical; # The degree of correlation between the main and orthogonal components is higher for rain than for hail; # The circular depolarization ratio (CDR) can help to distinguish rain from hail, but propagation effects cannot be ignored (Barge 1972; Humphries 1974); # A combination of the CDR, the radar reflectivity factor, and the cross-correlation is sensitive to precipitation type and hence could be useful for identifying the hydrometeors present in the observed volume (Torlaschi et al., 1984, Al- Jumily et al., 1991).
The addition of a 5-cm weather radar in 1974 provided the opportunity to use both polarization and dual-wavelength techniques to study hydrometeors (Humphries and Barge, 1979). Initially, data from the radar systems were in the form of photographs of the radar PPI displays or in the form of tracings from a strip chart recorder. Ultimately systems for digital signal processing and recording were developed as well as methods for the display of the digitally recoded data. A weather research group in Brazil purchased this radar data processing and display technology in 1980. Although the last major field program of the Alberta Hail Project occurred in 1985, data from the polarization radar were used for research well after the radar was decommissioned (Holt et al., 1994, Humphries et al., 1991). The three radars used during AHP research and cloud-seeding operations are depicted in Figure 10.
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Figure 10: Radars used in AHP research and cloud-seeding operations, L-R: 10-cm S-Band polarization diversity radar, X-Band aircraft-tracking radar, 5-cm C-Band radar.
3.5 Mesoscale Research and Forecast Operations One component of the AHP program included mesoscale studies of the storm environment, using atmospheric profile data from fixed and mobile sounding sites. Robitaille et al. (1979) investigated the representativeness of soundings in various storm quadrants and found that the most representative soundings lie within 20-100 km of the front quadrants, especially the right-front quadrant. Soundings in the northwest quadrant of a storm were generally unrepresentative of its convective potential. This finding has important implications for using soundings from Stony Plain, Alberta’s only synoptic site, to estimate convective potential over central Alberta.
A statistical forecast technique called the Synoptic Index of Convection (SC4) was developed, based on two synoptic dynamic variables and two instability indices, which were correlated to the Convective Day Category (CDC). This technique predicted storm intensity over the AHP operations area as reliably as a trained forecaster (Strong, 1979; Strong & Wilson, 1983; Strong & Smith, 2001). It was later incorporated into a prototype artificial intelligence forecast system funded by the MSC, called METEOR (Elio et al., 1987). The forecast SC4 (or CDC) was reliable enough that it was used in the cloud-seeding decision process. The technique was later adapted in several other projects, including the Greek and Argentine hail programs, and the current Alberta hail suppression program.
A series of field experiments on the mesoscale storm environment, called the Limestone Mountain Experiments or LIMEX (Strong, 1989), was carried out from 1980-85. These were designed to test a multi-scale conceptual model of Alberta thunderstorms (Strong, 1986, 2000, 2001), which incorporates synoptic scale and topographic forcing, surface cyclogenesis, the formation of a capping lid from a nocturnal inversion, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and mesoscale convergence over the foothills. Mesoscale aspects of the model appear in Figure 11a. The LIMEX-85 experiment
utilized nine radiosonde systems in a network with 50-60 km spacing, along with interspersed automatic weather stations. It focused on the formation and breakdown of the capping lid, prior to storm formation, and the important role that regional daily evapotranspiration plays in storm formation over the central Alberta foothills. One significant result was the revelation of how rapidly the pre-storm boundary layer changes, that this usually occurs over a 2-3 hour period during late morning (demonstrated in Figure 11b), and that it invariably goes undetected by synoptic (1200 and 0000 UTC) soundings. LIMEX also highlighted the importance of soundings in the storm formation region, namely over the foothills.
Figure 11: (a) The multi-scale conceptual model of Alberta thunderstorms (after Strong, 1986, 2000), and (b) LIMEX-85 field test demonstrating typical rapid boundary layer change prior to severe storms on 11 July 1985.
3.6 Other Research Part of the weather modification research mandate included exploratory field experiments for rain and snow enhancement, and an evaluation of ground-based seeding.
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Figure 11b
Figure 11a
3.6.1 Rain Enhancement Experiments During the period 1982-85, a series of cumulus seeding experiments was carried out. Treatment methods similar to the controlled, airborne, glaciogenic hail seeding experiments were applied to isolated towering cumulus clouds, in order to determine whether seeding could produce rain. Observations with the research aircraft showed that the class of cumulus clouds selected for the experiments does not naturally produce high concentrations of ice crystals. Seeding these clouds with either Silver Iodide or dry ice was effective in producing high ice crystal concentrations, which spread through the cloud and grew with time. It was demonstrated that some cumulus clouds, that would not rain naturally, could be made to rain by seeding with an ice nucleating material (Kochtubajda, 1986, 1995).
3.6.2 Snow Enhancement Experiments Limited investigations of the feasibility of increasing snowfall over the southern sections of the Alberta Rocky Mountains, via cloud seeding, were carried out during the 1980-85 research program. Field observations were made over four two-week periods, during the winters of 1982-84, to gather meteorological and in-cloud data, as evidence of the modification potential of wintertime orographic clouds over the southern Rockies. In-cloud data were obtained via research aircraft flights over the mountains in the Pincher Creek to Cranbrook corridor. Rawinsonde observations were made at a valley location upstream of the mountain range.
A preliminary assessment of the snow climatology in the region was carried out. The snow climatology showed that there are different snowfall patterns on each side of the continental divide, with a notable Spring contribution. Meteorological conditions were found to be appropriate for cloud seeding. Measurements of in-cloud properties with an instrumented research aircraft showed evidence of liquid water in the clouds that did not precipitate. There was an increase in liquid water content near the barrier peaks. Estimates from three selected cases indicated that less than 1-16% of the available moisture was converted to snow. These results suggested that the precipitation process could potentially be made more efficient by seeding with additional ice nuclei.
3.6.3 Ground-based Seeding Evaluation A project to evaluate the efficiency of seeding summer clouds, using ground-based Silver Iodide generators, was conducted by AHP in an area south of Calgary, between 1981 and 1985. Laboratory tests of the generators by Colorado State University showed that effective ice-forming nuclei were produced but at lower rates than with other systems. Mapping and plume-tracking flights over the test area showed that narrow plumes a few hundred metres wide were produced, occupying only a small fraction of the target volume. No evidence of a widespread seeding signature was found (Robitaille et al., 1986).
4. Post ALHAS/AHP Activities Needless to say, the official end of the provincially-funded hail studies program in 1985 (due to reduced provincial budgets, less-than-outstanding cloud-seeding results, and farmer-scientist politics) did not bring an end to severe storms in Alberta. Nature regularly hits the province with devastating convective storms; notable post-AHP storms include: the Edmonton tornado of 31 July 1987, major Calgary hailstorms in 1991 and 1996, the Pine Lake tornado of 14 July 2000, and the Edmonton hailstorm of 11 July 2004. Each of these storms topped Environment Canada’s Top Ten Weather Stories in their year (e.g., see Phillips, 2001). Several notable activities have been conducted and various technological advances have been made since formal termination of the hail studies program.
During the ALHAS/AHP period, an extensive archive of data was collected from several measurement platforms, including the S-band, C-band and X-band radars, an instrumented cloud physics research aircraft, mobile precipitation sampling, rainfall and hailfall telephone survey reports, upper-air soundings and surface precipitation networks. In the early 1990s, a data rescue effort was undertaken to save this unique dataset (Kochtubajda et al., 1996); the archive and related documentation can be found at http://datalib.library.ualberta.ca/AHParchive/.
Huge advances in remote sensing technology have also been made since the AHP was disbanded, including radar, satellite imagery, radiometer profiles of temperature and humidity, wind profilers, GPS moisture, and lightning networks, to mention a few. Figure 12 shows the short-term (1998-2000) climatology of lightning frequency across western Canada, determined using the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (Burrows et al., 2002). It shows that the highest incidence of lightning occurs over the Alberta foothills, closely corresponding to the hail frequency climatology of Figure 7.
Figure 12: 1998-2002 Lightning frequency across western Canada (reproduced from Burrows et al., 2002).
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4.1 The Alberta Hail Suppression Project, 1996-present The current Alberta Hail Suppression Project was initiated in 1996 in response to the damages associated with the severe hailstorm that struck Calgary on September 7, 1991. Insured losses due to that storm were approximately $400 million (Charlton et al., 1995, Insurance Bureau of Canada, 2004). The Alberta Severe Weather Management Society was created in 1996 by the private insurance companies in Alberta, with the sole objective of conducting a cloud seeding program to reduce the damage to property by hail. It is the first project of its kind in the world to be funded privately, and it focusses on the reduction of damage to property and not agriculture. The current project area is defined by an area of high storm frequency and a rapidly increasing population base (the Calgary – Red Deer corridor). It is based upon the cloud seeding conceptual model, methods, and results of the long-term hail research project conducted by the AHP.
Weather Modification Incorporated (WMI) of Fargo, North Dakota was awarded the first contract to conduct the Alberta Hail Suppression Project in 1996. The project was made an on-going program of the Alberta insurance industry in 2001 because of the decrease in hail damage costs in Alberta, counter to the trend in the hail regions in the USA and the rest of the world. Although the new project does not include a research focus, it has been useful in providing infrastructure and data for scientists working on the project, and for several independent research projects (e.g. AGAME, UNSTABLE), graduate student theses, and publications in the formal scientific literature (Krauss and Santos, 2004; Milbrandt and Yau, 2006; Brimelow et al., 2006; Smith et al., 2007).
4.2 A-GAME, 2003-05 The Alberta GPS Atmospheric Moisture Evaluation (A- GAME) project was initiated in 2003 as an application of the GPS receiver network of the University of Calgary Geomatics Engineering Department (Skone and Hoyle, 2005). The primary objective involved using radiosonde data to evaluate the accuracy of precipitable water estimates retrieved from GPS (Skone and Hoyle, 2005). Sub-objectives included using GPS precipitable water data to study Alberta thunderstorm initiation, and building on the multi-scale conceptual model of Alberta thunderstorms (Strong, 1986, 2000) briefly described in Section 3.5 (and Fig. 11), by investigating the role of drylines interacting with the capping lid in storm genesis (Hill, 2006). This was the first ever field research study of drylines in Canada, and significant sharp dryline boundaries were recorded in some severe storm situations where mixing ratios dropped by 3- 5 g kg-1 over distances as short as 1 km or less.
5. Accomplishments and Legacy
5.1 ALHAS/AHP Accomplishments The hail studies programs (ALHAS/AHP) yielded an impressive number of results that improved the understanding and prediction of hailstorm and precipitation processes, and contributed to the development of severe weather expertise in Canada. A few important achievements are summarized here:
# Provision of a field facility (unfortunately lost with the demise of AHP), with data systems and techniques for observing hailstorms and making other relevant measurements that were second to none;
# Development of a sophisticated polarization diversity weather radar system for understanding hailstorm structure, behaviour, and detection of hail within storms;
# Development of a technique that combined CDR, radar reflectivity factor, and the cross-correlation to distinguish precipitation type;
# Development of an understanding of the role of freezing nuclei in initiating precipitation formation;
# Development of one- and two-dimensional computer simulation models of storm development and precipitation growth used for operational cloud seeding decisions;
# Identification of three distinct storm types (single-cell, multicell, and supercell) based on storm dynamics, structure, growth rates, precipitation development and hailfall patterns, and from which storm duration, propagation, hail/rain intensities and amounts, and potential storm damage can be estimated qualitatively;
# Development of a conceptual model of in-cloud storm processes;
# Development of a practical system for seeding multicell hailstorms that became the basis of operational hail suppression programs elsewhere in the world;
# Demonstration of a methodology for physical (as opposed to statistical) evaluation of cloud seeding effects;
# Development of a reliable statistical forecast index that improved storm forecasting, was incorporated into an AI model, and was adopted by other national and international programs;
# Development of a multi-scale conceptual model of Alberta thunderstorms incorporating synoptic and mesoscale processes, orographic forcing, and surface fluxes and convergence;
# Collection of a mesoscale upper air dataset (LIMEX-85) that continues to be used in mesoscale research more than 20 years later;
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# Compilation of a comprehensive climatology of hail for central Alberta (1957-1985) unparalleled by any other program; data were obtained from farmers’ reports of hail size, hailfall amounts, hailfall durations, accompanying rain, wind, crop damage and relevant storm comments;
# Finally, the project provided a unique training ground for graduate students who worked closely with Canadian and visiting scientists, observing and collecting data, while new studies using AHP data continue today thanks to the AHP data archive. To date, at least 47 M.Sc and 18 Ph.D theses have been completed using AHP data at participating universities as listed below:
McGill University 20 M.Sc. 12 Ph.D.
University of Alberta 21 M.Sc. 3 Ph.D.
Université du Québec à Montréal
6 M.Sc.
University of Wyoming, USA
1 Ph.D.
University of Essex, UK
2 Ph.D.
5.2 ALHAS/AHP Legacy Hail studies in Alberta evolved over a thirty year period, beginning in 1957, when relatively little was known about hailstorms in Alberta except their destructive capacity. Starting with the most fundamental observations, investigators were able to determine the extent of the hail problem and to develop conceptual models of the hailstorm. Various seeding hypotheses were suggested in an attempt to develop a weather modification technology, and experimental procedures were designed to test the validity of the conceptual model and the seeding hypotheses.
It is difficult to gauge the full impact of the ALHAS/AHP program. It likely ranks as the largest and longest-running meteorological research program in Canada in terms of people and effort. During many summers, there were in excess of 100 scientists, technicians, pilots, students, administrative staff and short-term employees serving on the project. In addition to the many scientific achievements, the project served as a training ground for meteorologists and students, many of whom went on to careers in the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) and other organizations. Many ALHAS/AHP participants put their field experience to good use in later research programs, including CCOPE (1981), the Greek (1986-91) and Argentine (1998-2004) hail suppression programs, CASP (1986, 1992), RES (1991), the Mackenzie GEWEX Study (1997-2005), A-GAME (2003-04), and DRI (2005-present). Graduate students continue to use AHP data in their thesis work. AHP technology and knowledge transfer to other projects is also a significant part of the AHP legacy. The operational seeding program provided tremendous experience for dozens of AHP cloud-seeding pilots and
controllers, many of whom went on to work in other international weather modification programs, major airlines and related areas of the airline industry.
Statistics Canada lists the Calgary-Edmonton corridor as the fastest-growing region of Canada (http://www.statcan.ca/start.html), suggesting that severe convective storms will likely have even greater economic and human impacts in the future. Environment Canada is reacting to this concern with a planned intensive field study on severe storms in 2008, called UNSTABLE (Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment). Several former AHP participants are involved in the planning and research for this project. It is described in the current issue of the Bulletin (Taylor et al., 2007), and it is based partly on the scientific foundation established by the AHP LIMEX studies. Former ALHAS/AHP scientists can rest assured that many of their findings will be utilized in this and future field research.
6. Acknowledgements The ALHAS/AHP projects of 1957-85 were initiated and continued for three decades, because of concerns from the farming community of Alberta. They were funded in large part by grants from Alberta Agriculture and the Alberta Research Council, with significant financial participation from McGill University, the Meteorological Service of Canada (under various previous names), the National Research Council and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. However, while these agencies provided the economic ingredients for hail studies, it must be acknowledged that little research could have happened without the pioneers at the Stormy Weather Group of McGill University. They started with little or no knowledge of hailstorms, but, in a very methodical way, using innovative field measurements, the meticulous analysis and interpretation of data and the development and testing of hypotheses, they made a major contribution to hail science.
The authors of this article take great pride in having been part of the ALHAS/AHP teams for significant periods of their careers. We dedicate this article to two groups – the many scientists, engineers, technicians, summer students and others, who contributed directly to this program for more than 30 years, and the Alberta farming community, who were the instigators, supporters and beneficiaries of the program. Alberta farmers were not only the original driving force behind both ALHAS and AHP, they also helped provide a tremendous amount of volunteer scientific data, through hail and rain surveys and samples, hailpads, instrumentation sites and more, often in the midst of suffering devastating losses due to hail damage. Finally, this article reminds us of those participants and supporters who are no longer with us. Their dedication and work will not be forgotten.
Finally, we wish to acknowledge the Alberta Research Council (http://www.arc.ab.ca/), Weather Modification
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Incorporated (http://www.weathermod.com/), and Levelton Engineering Solutions (http://www.levelton.com/) for their financial contributions towards the cost of producing this special issue of the CMOS Bulletin SCMO.
7. References
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The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE):
A Report Following the First Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007, Edmonton, Alberta
by Neil Taylor1, David Sills2, John Hanesiak3, Jason Milbrandt4, Pat McCarthy5, Craig Smith6 and Geoff Strong7
1 Hydrometeorology and Arctic Laboratory, Environment Canada 4 Recherche en Prévision Numérique (Numerical Weather
Prediction Research Section), Environment Canada
2 Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section,
Environment Canada
5 Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre, Environment Canada
3 Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba 6 Climate Research Division, Environment Canada
7 University of Alberta (Adjunct Professor)
Résumé (Traduit par la direction): Les chercheurs d’Environnement Canada et d’autres scientifiques intéressés venant du milieu universitaire et du secteur privé sont à concevoir une expérience sur les contreforts de l’Alberta afin d’examiner les processus de la couche limite atmosphérique associés au déclenchement convectif et à l’origine d’orages violents. Le projet “Comprendre les orages violents et l’expérience albertaine sur la couche limite («UNSTABLE»)”, planifiée pour l’été 2008, fera usage d’un réseau à haute résolution d’instruments fixes et mobiles en surface, en altitude et en vol pour échantillonner les processus à la méso-échelle dans la zone de l’origine de ces orages. Des efforts pour rencontrer cet objectif seront faits pour transmettre les résultats aux prévisionnistes d’Environnement Canada dans le but d’accroître le temps d’attente et l’exactitude des avis et des veilles d’orages violents en Alberta et dans le reste du Canada. Faisant suite à des informations générales sur le projet, on présente un sommaire de la première rencontre scientifique d’UNSTABLE.
Introduction Environment Canada researchers and other interested scientists from academia and the private sector are currently designing a field experiment over the Alberta foothills to investigate Atmospheric Boundary Layer (ABL) processes associated with convective initiation (CI) and severe thunderstorm genesis. The Understanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta Boundary Layers Experiment (UNSTABLE), planned for summer 2008 (funding permitting) or possibly 2009 (if funding delayed), will utilize a high-resolution network of fixed and mobile surface, upper air, and airborne instruments to sample mesoscale processes in this thunderstorm genesis zone. Targeted efforts will be made to transfer results to Environment Canada forecasters with the aim of increasing lead time and accuracy of severe thunderstorm watches and warnings in Alberta and the rest of Canada. Following some background information on the project, a summary of the first UNSTABLE science meeting is presented.
Rationale for UNSTABLE The Canadian prairies are subject to a high frequency of thunderstorms and associated severe weather during the summer months. Based on severe weather reports received by the Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre (PASPC), the prairies experience an average of 203 severe weather events each summer (McDonald and Dyck 2006). Areas of the prairies experiencing a high frequency of thunderstorms
are evident in climatological lightning data from the Canadian Lightning Data Network (CLDN). A map of the mean number of days with at least one cloud-to- ground lightning flash detected between 1999 and 2006 (Burrows 2006, personal communication) shows that the Rocky Mountain foothills region of Alberta experiences, on average, the most days with lightning (Fig. 1). A secondary maximum of lightning activity extends through the far southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Note: In this paper, severe weather refers to the occurrence of tornadoes, hail with diameter 20 mm or greater , convective wind gusts of 90 km h-1 or greater and/or convective rainfall amounts of 50 mm or greater in 1 h.
ABL = Atmospheric Boundary Layer. CI = Convective Initiation.
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Figure 1: Climatological lightning activity over the Canadian Prairies showing the average number of days with at least one cloud to ground flash from 1999 to 2006 (Burrows 2006, personal communication).
Alberta has proven to be particularly susceptible to costly summer severe weather events. The most devastating event in the last half century is the Edmonton F4 tornado and hailstorm of 31 July 1987 resulting in 27 lives lost and damage estimates in the range of $660 M1. Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada estimates that since 1980 more than 40 lives and $2 B have been lost in association with severe thunderstorms. Nearly all of these events occurred within the Edmonton to Calgary corridor which lies just east of the Alberta foothills. Thunderstorms developing on the foothills tend to move eastward with prevailing westerly winds aloft. Alberta contains 2 of Canada’s 10 busiest airports (Calgary International 3rd and Edmonton International 6th, Transport Canada 2006) and the Edmonton to Calgary corridor is one of the most densely populated and fastest growing regions in Canada (Statistics Canada 2006, see Fig. 2). Given the above, the potential for further risk to life and property in southern Alberta due to summer severe weather events is clear. Improved understanding of processes associated with the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta foothills and application of that knowledge to operational forecast techniques will allow forecasters to maximize their ability to issue accurate and timely severe weather warnings and forecasts.
Meteorologists face numerous challenges with respect to forecasting severe thunderstorms. These include, though may not be limited to:
# Limited knowledge of the ABL structure and evolution, especially with respect to the stratification of water vapour in the vertical;
# Inadequate conceptual models to describe processes leading to CI and the development of severe thunderstorms;
# Difficulty in detecting mesoscale boundaries and circulations in regions of interest and their behaviour in association with CI. In the absence of sufficient observations, appropriate techniques are needed to infer important atmospheric characteristics and their evolution, given available observations.
# An incomplete understanding of important land-surface interactions with the convective ABL in the region of interest and their role in CI
# Inconsistent performance of numerical models with respect to the above (e.g., strengths, weaknesses, systematic biases)
The foothills region of Alberta suffers from an inadequate observational network with respect to surface and upper-air measurements. The one radiosonde location in Alberta (Stony Plain, 53.52 32 (red). We see that the area with the greatest number of lightning days corresponds to a void in surface observations within the current operational network.
A significant amount of severe thunderstorm research has occurred in Alberta dating back to the Alberta Hail Studies (ALHAS) and Alberta Hail Project (AHP) between 1957 and 1985. Later field experiments include the Limestone Mountain Experiments (LIMEX, Strong 1986, 1989) and the Alberta GPS Atmospheric Moisture Evaluation (A-GAME, Hill 2006). Research from these projects focussed mainly on hail and upper-air processes. More recent research in Canada and the U.S. has focussed on ABL moisture, convergence boundaries, and mesoscale circulations associated with CI and severe storms (e.g., Sills et al. 2002, Sills et al. 2004, Weckwerth et al. 2004, Weckwerth and Parsons 2006, Hill 2006). These findings indicate that more work is required both regionally and abroad to better understand the significance and influence of ABL processes on CI and the development of severe thunderstorms.
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UNSTABLE Goals and Science Questions UNSTABLE seeks to fill in some knowledge gaps with respect to ABL processes and severe thunderstorms. The overall goals of the UNSTABLE project can be summarized as:
# To better understand atmospheric processes leading to thunderstorm development over the Alberta foothills (both prior to and during CI) with an aim to extend results to the rest of Canada;
# To improve the accuracy and lead time for severe thunderstorm watches and warnings;
# To assess the utility of the GEM-LAM model in resolving physical processes over the Alberta foothills and its ability to provide useful numerical guidance for the forecasting of severe convection;
# To refine current existing conceptual models describing CI and the development of severe thunderstorms over Alberta and the western prairies through observational and numerical modeling studies.
A primary goal of UNSTABLE is to improve accuracy and lead time for severe thunderstorm watches and warnings. For this to be achieved, appropriate mechanisms must be in place to ensure knowledge gained from UNSTABLE is transferred to operational forecasters. Collaboration between the National Labs and Storm Prediction Centres within Environment Canada is increasing. Already, laboratory staff are involved in training workshops and seminars and have implemented Research Support Desks (RSDs, Sills 2005, Taylor 2006) directly in forecast operations within two of Canada’s Storm Prediction Centres. The PASPC is anticipated to be involved in UNSTABLE during the field campaign and is involved to a lesser extent in the planning of the project. Following a period of data analysis, laboratory staff will work with the PASPC (and other Storm Prediction Centres) to incorporate results into operational conceptual models and forecast techniques. This will be accomplished through traditional means such as those listed above but also through the RSD where researchers can work with forecasters in real-time to apply UNSTABLE results to convective forecast and warning decisions.
To achieve the goals of the project, and for experiment planning purposes, three primary science questions have been formulated to investigate specific areas related to CI and severe thunderstorms. These involve ABL processes, land surface interactions, and numerical weather prediction. Scientific leads have been identified for each question to oversee their respective component of UNSTABLE including instrumentation / measurement strategies and data analysis. Each science question and a brief summary are included below.
1) What are the contributions of ABL processes to the initiation of deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills region?
This first question deals with processes associated with ABL water vapour and convergence lines as they relate to CI and severe storm development. More specifically, we are interested in characterizing ABL diurnal evolution, water vapour stratification, and the role that mesoscale convergence boundaries and circulations play in CI. The influence of highly varied terrain and mesoscale circulations and boundaries on storm evolution will also be investigated. In recent years the dryline has been identified as an important feature for CI in the region. Four-dimensional characterization of the dryline prior to and during storm development will be a priority of the field campaign. UNSTABLE will result in a dataset of high- resolution observations that will be used to evaluate the utility of current observational networks and to modify existing conceptual models for CI and severe weather outbreaks in southern and central Alberta.
2) What are the contributions of surface processes to the initiation of deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills region?
This question deals mainly with the effects of latent and sensible heat fluxes associated with varying soil moisture and evapotranspiration. We are interested in investigating effects of adjacent wet and dry soils (as defined by an agrometeorological model) on storm initiation and evolution. Attempts will be made to sample the development and evolution of moisture gradients and mesoscale circulations associated with surface discontinuities (e.g., land-land breezes). Targeted, high-resolution field observations will be compared with existing observations to evaluate the degree to which the current observational network can be used to detect these circulations sometimes associated with thunderstorm development.
3) To what extent can high-resolution numerical weather prediction models contribute to forecasting the initiation and development of severe convective storms that originate in the Alberta foothills?
The last science question relates to the use of high-resolution numerical modeling to forecast CI and severe thunderstorm development in the Alberta foothills. Specific questions address the ability of the Canadian Meteorological Centre’s Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) Limited Area Model (LAM) at 2.5 km resolution to simulate ABL and surface processes investigated in questions one and two, observed storm structures, and microphysical fields. Also of interest are identifying any deficiencies in current physical parameterizations and the effects of performing nested model runs on higher-resolution grids (e.g., 1 km). Other areas to be investigated using the observational dataset from UNSTABLE include high-resolution ensemble forecasts of CI and the use of a high-resolution analysis to improve prediction of CI and subsequent storm development.
-24- CMOS Bulletin SCMO Vol.35, Numéro spécial
Figure 4: Environment Canada’s Automated Transportable Meteorological Observing System (ATMOS).
Experimental Design UNSTABLE will take place from 1 June to 31 August 2008 with a three-week Intensive Observation Period (IOP) planned from 9 July to 31 July. Fixed mesonet stations will be deployed prior to 1 June with all other supplementary instrumentation deployed during the IOP. The field campaign will utilize targeted, high-resolution fixed and mobile measurements from a variety of observation platforms. Central to the success of the project is a mesonet of surface weather stations, mobile surface observing platforms, multiple profilers, and an upper-air campaign utilizing multiple radiosondes, a tethersonde and, if sufficiently funded, a research aircraft. The surface mesonet is designed using both grid (~ 25 km spacing) and linear (~ 10 km spacing) configurations to resolve surface characteristics spatially and their evolution in time. The mesonet will consist of existing weather stations in cooperation with the Government of Alberta and Canadian universities and 10-15 Automated
Transportable Meteorological Observing Systems (ATMOS, see Fig. 4). Mobile surface measurements will be used to resolve surface convergence and other boundaries in space and time. To do this we will deploy one or more Automated Mobile Meteorological Observing Systems (AMMOS, see Fig. 5) capable of atmospheric state variable measurements (including wind speed and direction) while stationary or in motion.
Figure 5: Environment Canada’s Automated Mobile Meteorological Observation System (AMMOS), photo by David Sills.
Upper-air measurements during UNSTABLE will be conducted using up to 5 radiosonde systems (3 mobile and 2 fixed), a recently-purchased Vaisala tethersonde, and a number of profiling and total column water vapour instruments (radiometers and GPS precipitable water measurements) contributed by the University of Manitoba and the University of Calgary. The majority of these instruments will be deployed in fixed locations but the University of Manitoba Centre for Earth Observation Science will be participating with their Mobile Atmospheric Research System (MARS) trailer. The MARS contains a profiling radiometer, Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) and Doppler sodar along with a surface weather station. The MARS will be deployed in conjunction with other mobile surface observations in the vicinity of mesoscale boundaries and favoured areas for CI.
The UNSTABLE study area is designed to take advantage of other existing observing networks. These include existing surface stations, the Stony Plain radiosonde station, the CLDN, Environment Canada radars at Carvel (53.56

Here is the link to the source files Click Here

As you can see Weather Modification is real. This information is public knowledge. All a person needs to do is look. It makes you wonder why governments deny such activity exists. There is a lot more going on than what is mentioned here that i could discuss. That’s for a different day. My goal today is to help the non-believers to start to believe. I hope I have accomplished that today.
Where do we go from here?
There is also Congressional bill, HR 2977 – Space Preservation Act of 2001: Click Here
Respectfully
Deplorable Patriot

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Not so fast. There is one thing Obama does better than Trump

Like him or not, everyone should be impressed with Donald  Trump’s success as President of the United States and how much he has helped America and its citizens.  Thinking about the  amount of  Trumps success and his lack of experience as a politician, the first thing that comes to mind is ,  “what was Obama doing, besides creating problems, while he was in the  White House”.  He reminds me a lot like that guy that sleeps on the couch. He  doesn’t work and is in the way. Lies about what his plans are or what he was doing that day.  Up in your personal business and causes problems in your relationship/household.  Does not know when to go away.  Acts like he is your friend while he steals from you.  In the end you are going to be out of some cash.

It looks as if every duty a president has to do, Trump does better than the rest.  This is not entirely true.  I did find one thing Trump will never be able to do as well as Obama.  Obama was better at giving tax payer money to other countries.

Most Americans are not aware of how much money our country gives to other countries as Foreign Aid.  Some think it’s 25 % of the yearly budget.  I would say it’s more around 1%.  I base that on the data that is available.  I wouldn’t bet my life on it but I think I’m pretty close.  I thought I would take a look at how much Foreign Aid Obama gave his first year budget and compare it to Trump’s first year budget. Since the budget is already made by the preceding president we will be using Obama’s 2010 and Trump’s 2018 to compare. The data will come from USAID.

USAID has been responsible for reporting U.S. foreign aid as defined under Section 634 of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, as amended. In the summer of 2003, USAID built a data repository to track all foreign assistance activities funded by the U.S. Government and fulfill two international aid reporting requirements of the U.S. Government: (1) Publication of the annual U.S. Overseas Loans and Grants (informally known as the Greenbook) for Congress and (2) the U.S. Government’s Annual Assistance Report (USAAR) to the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This data repository evolved into the USAID Foreign Aid Explorer (FAE), a resource for information on all U.S. foreign assistance funding and implementation, from over 70 U.S. Government departments, agencies, sub-agencies, and offices. In addition to fulfilling the two U.S. Government reporting requirements, the FAE helps USAID respond to stakeholder and public inquiries regarding U.S. foreign aid, the Foreign Aid Explorer website and ForeignAssistance.gov.

Here is a list of the reporting Agencies.  This will give us the total all Foreign aid the USA provided  for each year.

In the upper half of the image below we have Obama’s 2010 budget.  It’s 48 billion dollars given to 224 countries.   Around 30% went to military aid and the remainder went to economic aid.  Below that Trump’s 2018 budget.  It’s 28 billion dollars given to 193 countries.  Around 2% went to military aid and the remainder went to economic aid.  Obama nearly doubled Trump.  For those that are not aware.  The smaller the numbers here, the better.  This is where we want to save money, not give it away.  We can only hope Trump does not get better than Obama, when it comes to giving taxpayer money to other countries.

Below are Obama’s remaining yearly foreign aid  budgets.  2016 is incomplete because eleven of the 22 departments did not submit their reports.

While we are here, let’s take a look at how much Obama and Trump gave Russia in their first year budgets. Obama at around 506 million and Trump at around 154 million.

 

Below is Obama’s remaining yearly foreign aid given to Russia.

Tell me again, Who colluded with the Russians?  I’m not surprised that this information does not get any exposure.  with the left it’s anything but reality.

In the images you will see “obligations”.  The actual disbursements might be a little higher or lower.  They are close enough so it really doesn’t make a difference which one I used.  You will also see the word “activity”.  This is exactly what the aid was used for. Below is a screenshot of Obama’s 2010 foreign aid total.  You will notice where it says “activity” are the 10  largest aid recipients.  At the end of this article I have provided a link to where you download all foreign aid activity from 1946 to the most recent year..  Or if you want click on the second link I provided to view online.

Something I find interesting is that USAID(website where I got this information) was audited.  They seem to lost 450 million dollars.  USAID reports to congress.   Why has congress not made a big deal out of this?

There you have it.  The only thing Obama does/did better than Trump. Waste American taxpayer money.

To download data sets click HERE

To view all this information provided and more online click HERE

I hope you this information is useful.

Respectfully,

Deplorable Patriot

 

 

 

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Ethiopian Airlines plane crash time discrepancy.

By now everyone should be aware of the Ethiopian Airlines plane crash..  I found out in a article in the New York Times.  That article can be found here.  I looked at the time of the official release bulletin of the crash.  It was at 11:a.m. Ethiopian time.  The New York Times displayed their Twitter feed.  Their time on the tweet was  2:15 a.m..  The next thing I did was check the time zone data.

New York Times screen shot

Looking at the screen shot we can see that 2:15 a.m. in New York would give us 9:15 a.m. in Ethiopia.  We add 1 hour to time in New York for Daylight Savings time, we get 3:15 a. m. New York and 9:15 a.m. Ethiopia.  They do not use Daylight Savings time.  Their time stays the same..  It is important to understand that according to the article and screen shots, the official release Bulletin has already been done at 11 a.m. Ethiopia time.  If that were the case, how is it that the New York Times have a full story, complete with the official release tweet almost 2 hours before the actual time of the release tweet?  When the Times got the tweet at 2:15 a.m, the time in Ethiopia was 9:15 a.m., Not 11 a.m., like the tweet shows.

Another thing I noticed in the article was some of the times in the article not matching the times in the image.  In the article it says, “The flight on Sunday took off from Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa at 8:38 a.m. local time and lost contact six minutes later, the airline said. The plane went down near Bishoftu, about 35 miles southeast of Addis Ababa.”  The “six minutes” does not  match the time in the image they provided.

By The New York Times | Source: Flightradar24 | Note: Times are local time.

With so many discrepancies in the New York Times story a person has to wonder if  this is some sort of False Flag event or just fake news.  When I checked  the flight records at the departing airport, the flight had not been logged as a aircraft that had departed.  It showed the flight plan and estimated time of departure, destination and other miscellaneous information. But no time of departure.

Please tell me your thoughts and please prove me wrong,

respectfully,  Deplorable Patriot

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When you see someone from the “WalkAway” campaign and if you are a Trump supporter, do exactly that, walk away.

One of Qanons recent Qposts was a link to a video that was about the “WalkAway” campaign.  In the title it had “the Great Awakening”. (I’m not providing the link because I do not want to give it anymore exposure.  Just enough to pull its covers). The guy  in the video talked about how he used to be a liberal and made a change.  The video was a scam where its victims were mainly republicans, Trump supporters and members of the Qanon army.   It was just another shady move by the democrats and liberals. I’ll explain.

They know that in order to have any chance to win in 2020 they need to reconstruct their party and reduce Trump’s voter base. The socialist angle will never work and there is way too much damage the their party to have any chance at winning with their party in its current state.   They needed to do something drastic. They created a third party.  A party that’s new and will give the appearance that  it hates the current democrat leadership and how it handles thing.  They come up with the “WalkAway” campaign.

Some of the things they say are that they  tired of the same old party and that they are  tired of being let down and being lied to.  They saw how Trump won.  They saw that part of that was by  be getting to the hearts of fed up Americans.  They saw how he got Americans motivated.  So they copied him.

If you were to watch the video you would see  how the build up in the video is the same as Trumps campaign. The guy talks about the same things Trump did.  Just like Trump, he pointed out  problems and  let Americans know that they are not the only ones that are sick and tired about the way things have been going.  They are doing exactly what Trump did.  It was like they took a Trump video and removed Trump and put someone in his place. A total “knock off.”   And it stinks.

Problem 1:“WalkAway” campaign might be walking away from the democratic party and the nasty liberals, but guess what, they are still democrats at heart. At no point in time did I hear anyone say that they are going to be republicans.  I didn’t hear  anyone  say they are going to vote for Trump.   They call themselves the “WalkAway” campaign.   Not the Trump Campaign.  Different parties, different bank accounts.  This is a different party, unrelated to Trump’s campaign.

Second Problem: The are using “The Great Awakening” name. Qpost links to the video so patriots go watch the video.  During the video the “WalkAway” campaign were taking donations. Since Qpost linked to video and they called themselves “the Great Awakening”, patriots naturally thought the “WalkAway” campaign was part of the Qanon movement.  They made donations.  So we ended up with patriots fooled and screwed.  They gave their money to democrats. Keep in mind that democrats and liberals have been,  and are attacking patriots in every possible way.  One day they are putting our people in hospital. The next day the same patriots that they put in the hospital are giving them their money. The “WalkAway” movement has taken advantage of  the patriots by using the Great Awakening name. Q just provided the link. That does not mean give them your money.

I understand that when  a person leaves the party,   It does not mean they are coming to your party. It wasn’t the same for many others..
Democrats are dividing their party by creating the “Walkaway” campaign.  They are also dividing and snagging Trumps voter base while doing it. This is one the democrats and liberals last ditch efforts to finish Trump.
Trump will praise the “WalkAway” campaign because they are splitting their party.  Some may have left the party and voted for Trump.  But most of them are just unhappy with their old party and want a change.  It does not mean they like the republicans now.  The “Walkaway” campaign at it’s heart are democrats and will always be democrats. If they switched to be conservatives they would just assimilate into the republican party. They would not need their own name.   their own campaign. They would not need to take donations.

This whole thing sounds like an “insurance policy”. But it wont work. Some people got fooled out of their money. There is plenty of time to inform them to what happened and keep them as Trump supporters.   We just need to keep them informed.
People need to remember, the Qanon movement, Calm before the storm, Great Awakening has never accepted donations and never will. Qanon has made that very clear in the beginning. If anyone is asking for donations and claiming to be part of Qanon.  They are frauds. Save your money and “Walk Away”.
You man ask, Why should we believe you?

Remember that I am an opinion journalist.  this is my assessment of an event that took place.
You don’t have to believe me but in this situation understand that  I am a former mod from the Great Awakening.  The real one.  The one that got banned.  I am still very much involved with Qanon movement on a daily basis. Believe me when I say, We do not want your money and never will. If you must, give your money to the Trump Campaign.  Remember Qanon, Trump, insider, etc. Also, why  would they want you giving your money to a different campaign?  Think logically, trust the plan.
Respectfully
Deplorable Patriot

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Vincit Omnia Veritas

“Vincit omnia veritas”, Latin forTruth conquers all things.” 

Big things are going on the USA.  More and more Americans are learning some of Americas darkest moments.  People, events, crime, etc that has been hidden from the general public is being revealed  daily.  We are learning the truth.  And sometime it hurts.

Some people claim that Trunp Administration is not getting anything done.  Some people claim that criminals like Hillary Clinton are going to get away with her criminal past..    Opinions vary depending on what side a person is on.   There is only one truth.  Sometimes that is not enough.  It needs help.  A leader who wants to conquer a nation cannot do it on their own.  They need help . It’s the same for Truth to conquer all.  Sometimes it needs help.  Sometimes  just keeping the truth alive and in the public eye is all the help it needs.

Here are 3 topics that I felt should  be kept in the public eye..  There are many more.  These are my choices for today.

Example: Human Trafficking

Human Trafficking

To get a better idea about the Trump Administration and how it  has addressed Human Trafficking in the USA, here are some “Notable Human Trafficking Arrests”.   Starting from January 2017 to present. There were around 12,070 arrested and 8446+ rescued.  Keep in mind, these are only the “Notable” arrests.  There are far more.                                                                                                                 For comparison, A  record of 2016 and early 2017 arrest provided. These were before Trump took office. To access searchable spreadsheets click here

Example; Sealed Indictments

Sealed Indictments

The fabled “Sealed Indictments”.   Contrary to what the MSM tells us. Yes, they exist.   Some “in the know” might say that “there are always sealed indictments”.  True, but this many?  Here is a Searchable spreadsheet master list of the sealed indictments, that many people think are non-existent, a lie or just plain made up.  To access searchable spreadsheets click here  .                                *Credit goes to those @ArrestAnon for creating the spreadsheets.  Credit to QAnon, 8chan, Qresearch, QArmy, The Storm, Great Awakening, President Donald J Trump for their parts,

Most Damaging WikiLeaks 

Most Damaging WikiLeaks has been taken down. Someone was smart enough to archive it. If you missed it, not to worry. You can read it here. HRC and friends living out their finest moments                                                                                        To download file click mosdamaging-wiki-leaks.zip

To view online click here

 

Example: Most Damaging WikiLeaks

Respectfully

Deplorable Patriot

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The Trump Show

“On February 15, 2019, President Donald J. Trump issued a “Presidential
Proclamation on Declaring a National Emergency Concerning the Southern Border of the United States,” (hereafter referred to as “emergency proclamation”) pursuant to the purported authority of the National Emergencies Act (“NEA”), 50 U.S.C. § 1601 et seq. Under the emergency proclamation, the President directed the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland
Security to undertake specific acts in furtherance of border wall construction. The President further directed the reallocation of up to $601 million from the Treasury Forfeiture Fund, $3.6 billion in unspent funds appropriated for military construction projects, as well as up to $2.5 billion in unspent funds appropriated for support for counter drug activity support, towards border wall construction”

President Donald Trump also signed a Border  Security bill  to avert another government shutdown.

With all the fake news it can be hard to find the truth. This is what the MSM and others are not telling you. The following is the truth.  This is how Trump came out on top, again.

 

Lets start off by talking about funding Trumps wall. The Administration has so far identified up to $8.1 billion that will be available to build the border wall once a national emergency is declared.
There are additional funds available.  Those would be the following:
10 U.S.C. § 284, counter drug support activities 2.5 billion
10 U.S.C. § 2808, military construction 3.6 billion
31 U.S.C. § 9705 Treasury Forfeiture Fund 601 million
These funding sources will be used sequentially and as needed          

If  you look at 10 U.S.C. § 284 and 10 U.S.C. § 2808 and add the two together you get 6.1 billion. 1.1 billion more then his first request of 5 billion. Remember when Trump made his  first request for funding the wall he asked for  5 billion and got rejected.. This is 6.1 billion he can spend on the wall and he does not need approval from congress.  This is the money he is using to build the wall. There is nothing congress or the senate can do to stop this. So while congress and others are fighting Trump’s National emergency, the wall is being built. Keep in mind that there is 120 miles of the wall progress already.   The wall cannot be stopped.                                                                                                  Important to note that the  601 million 9705 Treasury Forfeiture Fund And the 1.375 billion from the bill he just signed will still be untouched and available.

Lets take a look at the bill he signed.
The bill provides $1.375 billion for approximately 55 miles of border barrier in highly dangerous and drug smuggling areas in the Rio Grande Valley, where it is desperately needed.
More than 40 percent of all border apprehensions occurred in the Rio Grande Valley sector in fiscal year (FY) 2018.
The Rio Grande Valley was the border sector with the most known deaths of illegal border crossers in FY 2018.
$415 million will go toward addressing the humanitarian crisis at the border by providing medical care, transportation, processing centers, and consumables.

Don’t be fooled by the media and everyone talking about how by signing the bill he “shot himself in the foot”.  All those extra “land mines” that could restrict his authority are void because they interfere with executive functions under the Constitution.                                                                                                            President Trump successfully rejected efforts by some to undercut Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) ability to uphold our laws and detain illegal aliens, including criminals.
 ICE funding supports nearly 5,000 additional beds to detain illegal aliens and keep criminals off our streets.
Customs and Border Protection will receive funding for 600 additional officers. 

This bill will help keep deadly drugs out of our communities by increasing drug detection at ports of entry, including opioid detection staffing, labs, and equipment

What is perhaps the best part Trumps emergency is that he used Obama’s 2011 executive order-President Barack Obama issued an executive order “blocking property of transnational criminal organizations organizations.”  Obama cited his authority as granted through the Constitution to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, 50 U.S.C. 1701, and the National Emergencies Act, 50 U.S.C. 1601

We must remember that Multiple Governors have declared states of emergency along the border in the past.
Former Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, who became President Obama’s DHS Secretary, declared a state of emergency along the border in 2005.
Former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson also declared a state of emergency at the border in 2005.

 Past Presidents
Former President George W. Bush and former President Obama both directed the use of the military to assist DHS in securing and managing the Southern Border.
Former President Bush declared a national emergency in 2001, which invoked reprogramming authority granted by Title 10 United States Code, section 2808, and both he and former President Obama used that authority a total of 18 times to fund projects between 2001 and 2014.

The President is using his clear authority to declare a national emergency as allowed under the National Emergencies Act. President Trump is taking the necessary steps to address the crisis at our Southern Border and stop crime and drugs from flooding into our Nation.

  • Massive caravans of migrants view our unsecure border as a way to gain illegal entry into our country and take advantage of our nonsensical immigration loopholes.
  • Human traffickers exploit our borders to traffic young girls and women into our country and sell them into prostitution and slavery.
  • Immigration officers have made 266,000 arrests of criminal aliens in the last two fiscal years.
  • This includes aliens charged or convicted of approximately 100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes, and 4,000 killings.
  • Cartels, traffickers, and gangs, like the vile MS-13 gang, have taken advantage of our weak borders for their own gain.
  • Tons of deadly drugs have flooded across the border and into our communities, taking countless American lives.
  • Methamphetamine, heroin, cocaine, and fentanyl all flow across our Southern Border and destroy our communities.
  • More than 70,000 Americans died of drug overdoses in 2017 alone.

    “I will never waver from my sacred duty to defend this Nation and its people. We will get the job done.”

 

That about wraps it up.   It’s a big win for the people of the USA and Trump. A big loss for the Socialist/commie democrats and deep state.

“I should remind you that I am an “opinion journalist”. I spend days gathering data from many sources. Then I share my final results.  I make it a priority to provide the most honest and accurate data available. The truth no matter how much it may hurt.  Still, with that being said. I encourage you to fact check my findings.  Please, always take the time to do your own research. There have been times when I got the story wrong. I don’t remember when or what it was about, but I’m sure it has happened”

Respectfully,

Deplorable Patriot

EDIT,  I stated that to use  10 U.S.C. § 2808, military construction 3.6 billion did not require approval from congress. That is incorrect.  It was
31 U.S.C. § 9705 Treasury Forfeiture Fund 601 million that did not require approval from congress.  Also to add actual available funds  for military construction, 10 U.S.C. § 2808 is around 21 billion.  That’s about $11 billion is available in unobligated funds and around  $10 billion is available in this year’s budget, and another roughly $11 billion is available in unobligated funds from the past five years’ military construction budget.  The plan is to stay with  the 3.6 billion.   There I go, fact checking myself.  D.P.

 

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Attorney General William Barr jumps into the fire

 

 

William Barr and Robert Mueller

When I say fire, I’m talking about The Trump/ Russia dumpster fire  investigation.   It’s like those birthday candles that you can’t just blow out.  Your going to have to get your hands dirty and more than likely get burnt.  Our new Attorney General William Barr  doesn’t appear to worry about getting his hands dirty or getting  burnt.   He jumped right into the dumpster fire.

William Barr has admitted to being “good friends” with Special Council Bob Mueller.  My first thought was “Great another swamp creature.  Then I found the following conversation between Barr and Muller.  I looks like we just might have a  real Attorney General in DC.

Barr to Mueller:
“Bob, show me the evidence and reasoning for why this investigation was started and still ongoing.”
Mueller to Barr:
“With regards to the President we have found no links or ties to any foreign entity etc”
Barr to Mueller:
“Mandate was clear – verify and investigate reports of possible foreign collusion between President & Russia.” “What justification existed to effectively launch a massive domestic / foreign surveillance campaign against the President (pres elect / president) and members of his transition / campaign team?”
Mueller to Barr:
“Steele dossier along w/ media corroboration of those findings.”
Barr to Mueller:
“Was the Steele report a ‘trusted and verified’ report per Intel to continue especially considering the funding party was the opposition party?”
Mueller to Barr:
“Those facts were never taken into consideration.” “FISC (FISA) granted authorization  to conduct based on conclusions presented.”
Barr to Mueller:
“Was FISC(FISA) made aware of all details surrounding the dossier?”
Mueller to Barr:
“No.” “We believe there was urgency placed on the authorization given the gravity and timeline of events that those involved negated to populate fully.”
Barr to Mueller:
“Why were efforts made to continue investigating the President, interrupt his official capacity in governing, if the only documents  presented was unsubstantiated and unverified?” “Why were questions and threat of subpoena communicated to the President if no factual foundation existed?”
“All charges thus far are unrelated to the original mandate – why are you still active and pursuing a crime if no verifiable evidence or evidence through discovery exists?”

bonus question

Barr to RR:

“What justification did you have to effectively expand the mandate, not report that expansion to Congress, in order to seek a crime outside of Russian collusion?” “What specific reasoning and/or facts existed to justify the appointment of a SC to begin with per the law?” “Why did you recommend to Sessions that he should recuse?” “Why wasn’t the mandate / budget and regular updates provided to Congress upon request?” “Why is everything kept confidential and under inappropriate classification?” “Was the purpose of investigating to find a crime vs investigate evidence of a crime?”

Sorry.  This is all I have on this for now.  I’m currently trying to locate the rest of both  conversations  Definitely something to talk about.  Maybe we will see justice after all.

Respectfully,

Deplorable Patriot

 

 

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