Rasmussen: Close Race in November

Via realclearpolitics.com:

April 14, 2012

Election Will Be All About Obama

By Scott Rasmussen

Any doubt that Mitt Romney would win the Republican nomination vanished when Rick Santorum left the race. It also marked the end of Romney’s time as the defining figure in the overall contest for the White House.

The GOP nomination process was seen by many as a competition between Romney and an entertaining cast of I’m Not Mitt challengers. Questions were raised about Romney’s perceived weaknesses and whether he could win over the hearts and votes of conservatives. But now President Barack Obama moves to center stage and becomes the defining figure of the general election campaign. Now it’s about Obama, not Romney, as the election becomes primarily a referendum on his first term.

The most important indicator of the president’s prospects will be his job-approval rating. That rating will be very close to his share of the vote on Election Day. In 2004, President George W. Bush had a 51 percent job approval rating and won 51 percent of the vote.

Obama’s ratings suggest we are heading for a potentially very close race. For the past 32 months, the full month approval ratings for the president have been remarkably stable, holding to a very narrow range of 44 percent to 49 percent. People seem to have formed an opinion of the president, and nothing can change their minds. Those who oppose the president tend to feel more strongly about it than those who support him.

For most of the past three years, the president’s ratings have stayed in an even narrower band of 46 percent to 48 percent. Those numbers suggest Obama would earn just under 50 percent of the vote on Election Day. If the president can win over a few more voters and move those numbers up a bit in the coming months, he is very likely to keep his job. If the president’s ratings falter, Romney is likely to be moving into the White House next January.

Economic concerns dominate the voters’ agenda, and here the numbers for the president are more troubling.

Some 49 percent of the voters trust Romney more than Obama when it comes to the economy. Just 39 percent trust Obama more.

Middle-income voters are especially likely to have more confidence in Romney. Obama does best among those who earn less than $20,000 a year and those who earn more than $100,000 annually. Especially troubling for the White House is the fact that 20 percent of Democrats trust Romney more than Obama on this core issue.

On other issues, however, Romney and Obama are essentially even. This includes health care, taxes, national security and energy.

Still, in a year when economic concerns trump all other issues, these numbers represent a good starting point for Romney. But if the economy improves between now and then, confidence in the president’s economic policies — and his job approval ratings — are sure to improve as well, and he’ll be much tougher for Romney to beat.

Scott Rasmussen is the founder and CEO of Rasmussen Reports.

-End 

Given what I have observed over the last three years, the very idea there may be enough people in this country that are going to vote to elect the Kenyan Muslim commie to a second four-year term is keeping me awake nights.

I cannot believe Barack Hussein Obama is even polling above the single digits in the approval area, but he is.

This is probably the most important election in our lifetimes – perhaps even in this nation’s history.

I just hope conservatives wll show up in huge numbers and vote for Mitt Romney even if, like me, they will have to hold their noses to do it.

We may actually survive one Obama term. We will not survive a second.

-Dave 

10 responses to “Rasmussen: Close Race in November

  1. The integrity of the American Republic is at stake in this election. I’m not confident that the majority of my fellow citizens will make the informed decision on who to vote for in November. There are so many Americans dependent on government now that winning elections for constitutionally-conservative candidates gets more and more difficult. Throw in a overtly-biased, liberal mainstream media and a fraudulent Democrat party machine and the odds of Obama being reelected go up substantially. I hope the majority of voters has enough sense to rid America of this political-scourge.

  2. Dave I totally agree with you, this is one of the scariest times I have lived through, and there is not very much we can do about it. Talking to an Obamabot, is like talking to a complete idiot…

  3. i’ve seen a lot of polls,but I recently saw one that showed that 30%
    of Congress were socialist (THAT’S CARD CARYING vERIFIABLE)
    and I would expect that to be representative of the population …
    but I think voting for Mitt….well check out this well reasoned esay:
    http://countrythinker.com/home/politics/voting-for-romney-d-mass-the-worst-mistake-a-conservative-could-make/

  4. Can’t believe Skippy’s numbers are soo high. Course when half don’t pay taxes why not keep voting for the man who dolls out do much if our money…sigh

  5. Spot on, DCG. That’s the biggest obstacle to removing Obama in November. “A government that robs Peter to pay Paul will always have the support of Paul.”

  6. I have been voting 51yr. and I have to say this is the MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION, ever in my life time. WE THE PEOPLE are going to make HISTORY, and I hope to GOD HE is helping us all to make the RIGHT choice this time. It means our LIFE or DEATH, of OUR NATION. Get all your friends,neighbors, and Families to get out and vote. Until then let us all PRAY for the right OUTCOME.
    GOD BLESS AMERICA

  7. At least Mitt Romney is a holy man, a Bishop and High Priest. How can he lose? With God on his side, because Obama might be a Muslim or worse, a secularist/atheist! If there is a God, then surely the Bishop and High Priest will defeat the law professor/community organizer.

  8. Homeschool Mama

    Not sure that conservatives/libertarians have any chance anymore. What with the people on government dole, the registered inmates, the voting illegals and dead people, and Black Panther intimidation. . . Truly, only God can save this nation, and when I think of Sodom and Gomorrah, my only question is, “why would He want to?”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s